tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89632755503889397532024-03-19T09:46:19.782-07:00House of the BluebirdAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-66240354645457506722012-07-06T08:24:00.001-07:002012-07-06T08:29:12.442-07:00Nixing the Narrative: The It's Not All Cordero's Fault Edition<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb8fbj0RQxK9cCQZHSkg3ie7wI_doWiRxIN_nhxJF3gHM26GNekBBHy_jHRcD1gMDaIOcAjQtolCMK6XTf4Mlq4t_kCROK1yRVBM30ozTt0mcOjuEUfJNyKe26HRVaD6-BPhYtsndr4-4/s1600/SadCorderoIsSad.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb8fbj0RQxK9cCQZHSkg3ie7wI_doWiRxIN_nhxJF3gHM26GNekBBHy_jHRcD1gMDaIOcAjQtolCMK6XTf4Mlq4t_kCROK1yRVBM30ozTt0mcOjuEUfJNyKe26HRVaD6-BPhYtsndr4-4/s400/SadCorderoIsSad.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Courtesy of<a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/00Dbh29as27cj?__site=daylife&q=Francisco+Cordero" target="_blank"> Reuters Picture</a>s via <a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/00Dbh29as27cj?__site=daylife&q=Francisco+Cordero" target="_blank">Daylife</a></td></tr>
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It was a calm, cool Thursday night in Toronto. The air was crisp, but there was a odd smell of anger and frustration as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cordefr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Francisco Cordero</a></strong> strolled on over to the mound in the top of the 8th inning. At the time the score was Royals 5, Blue Jays 3.<br />
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The first batter of the inning, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Mike Moustakas</a></strong>, singled on a ground ball up the middle. The anger tweets began. The next batter, Jeff Francouer, followed suit with a second ground ball up the middle. However this time both <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobyu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yunel Escobar</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kelly Johnson</a></strong> got to the ball, but in what was almost a nasty collision neither player came up with it. The anger tweets multiplied.<br />
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After a few more ground balls as well as a couple line drives the anger tweets were growing at an exponential rate. The inning seemed to have dragged on too long already, but the beast that is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hosmeer01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eric Hosmer</a></strong> was just stepping up to the plate. Unfortunately for Mr. Hosmer all he could muster was a ground ball to the right side of the infield, but wait...somehow he is safe at first because Cordero couldn't get to the bag in time. The anger tweets were at an all time high.<br />
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Following the game one could find many a tweet proclaiming something along the lines of DFA CORDERO. It wasn't the most subtle of approaches, but it sure got the message across. I don't intend on going all Wilner here, but at this point in the season the Cordero hate is becoming ridiculous. It isn't all his fault.<br />
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Starting with Thursday night's debacle, most people if asked would likely agree with the statement "Francisco Cordero was the reason the Blue Jays lost that game". On the surface it certainly seemed like that was the case, but a fan's reactive tendencies, especially to a player who is already in the doghouse, can cause a lack of recognition of what really went on.<br />
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For one thing in the first 4 batters of that inning Francisco Cordero induced 3 ground balls and only 1 line drive. The first ground ball was well hit right up the middle. The second ground ball was mishandled and had KJ and Escobar not both gone for the ball it could have very likely been a double play. The line drive Cordero gave up to the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Salvador Perez</a></strong> would then only result in one man on first and the subsequent ground ball induced from <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dysonja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jarrod Dyson</a></strong> would have ended the inning. No runs scored.<br />
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In another situation where one assumes that the mishandled ball by KJ and Escobar still happens and you look strictly at the rest of the inning two of the three runs could have easily been prevented. After Hosmer hit the ground ball it is true that if Cordero were possibly hustling a bit more they may have gotten out of the inning, but there was also why Cordero wasn't at the bag sooner. On that play the Blue Jays were playing the shift and Kelly Johnson was closer to first base than usual. Because of that Edwin did not need to go after the ball and instead could have left it to KJ creating an easy out at first base, inning over. In that situation only 1 run would have scored.<br />
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Some may point out that these are all hypothetical situations and while that is true on a batted ball results level Cordero didn't actually pitch that poorly. Over the course of the 7 batters that Cordero faced he induced 4 ground balls and 1 strikeout. Of course the other 2 batters hit line drives, but a 28 LD% is also not mind-blowingly awful. Cordero was in no way outstanding on the night, but to blame everything on him expresses a lack of observation as to what actually went on.<br />
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As for the rest of the season, well it hasn't exactly been peachy. After Thursday's night's proceedings Cordero brought his shutdown to meltdown ratio to an even .500 and in case you didn't know thats not very good. Another couple tidbits from this year include that Cordero has brought his walk rate back up after dropping it in 2011, he is tied for the second worst fWAR among relievers, he has the highest home run rate of his career, and last but not least Cordero currently sports a 6.00 ERA accompanied by a 5.68 FIP and 4.65 xFIP.<br />
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At first, second, third, and maybe even fourth glance those don't look like a good set of numbers, but looking at some of the underlying stats it might tell you a slightly different story. First off the statement that many have made this year "Cordero was bit by the BABIP monster" is a statement that holds through over the season. Francisco Cordero's .376 BABIP on the year ranks as the sixth worst among qualified relievers. That number is 162 points higher than where it was last year and 78 points above Cordero's career average.<br />
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Beyond that this year Cordero sports a ridiculous 17.9% HR/FB, which again ranks near the bottom of the league, but more importantly it is over double Francisco Cordero's career average. Thus explaining where a fair amount of Cordero's home run woes have been.<br />
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Despite the evidence brought forth a few of you on Twitter wanted to argue that there is no way that Cordero could have been unlucky for 3 whole months. While that is partially true, Cordero has also only pitched 33 innings this year which means that if he were a starter that would amount to a about a month's worth of pitching, a small sample size. Inherently that is one of the many volatility problems with relievers in that they don't pitch a lot so bad luck and bad pitching can be carried along over a longer period of time without making the actual sample size significantly bigger.<br />
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With all that said it certainly hasn't been all luck, Francisco Cordero has been a bad pitcher this year. Though his velocity has remained relatively consistent with where it was last year after having dropped the two years previous he hasn't been able to harness his pitches the way he was able to last year. More specifically in the 2012 season Cordero has not been able to get players to chase and swing at pitches outside the zone. His O-Swing% this year, a measly 22.6%, ranks 5th last among qualified relievers and is roughly 6% lower than where it was last year as well as Cordero's career average.<br />
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Seeing that Cordero has been unlucky and frankly not the best of pitchers one thing I do question is why the Blue Jays continue to place him in high leverage situations. One would argue that if you are paying a player a significant amount of money to perform to a level that he has performed to in the past then the right course of action is not to DFA such a player when he is pitching poorly. At the very least you could shrink down his impact on the game while he is working things out. Pitch him in mop up duty or even as part of a long relief crew, but don't pitch him in a 5-3 ball game when the leverage is arguably the highest in the entire game.<br />
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At that point it is the manager's fault for placing Cordero in that situation. Cordero doesn't get to choose where he pitches and pitching him in close games only exacerbates the problem by bringing it front and centre to both the fans and the media.<br />
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To my detriment, you can decree a Cordero DFA all you want, but Cordero can be a better pitcher than what he is now, Anthopoulous knows that, Farrell knows that. Also if you want to DFA Cordero then who do you propose as a replacement? <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richmsc01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Scott Richmond</a></strong>? <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillsh01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Shawn Hill</a></strong>? <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carrejo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joel Carreno</a></strong>? <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckch01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Chad Beck</a></strong>?<br />
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The other options may seem good, but there is also a reason those pitchers are in AAA. Us fans may not be able to recognize their true talent level because we haven't seen them in the majors in a significant capacity. The Blue Jays front office on the other hand has multiple people scouting their players and they are able to have a much better barometer of the players' respective talent levels.<br />
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Ultimately blame Cordero for what he has done and that is pitch poorly, but don't blame him for the plethora of factors that have contributed to the cornucopia of Cordero hate. Finally regarding specifically Thursday night's performance there is one last thing I'd like to say...<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgakBJZ3VdxOtFHztJU7iDBNfX_5_6RFVk9Gd9WVLpRErO7EcSidgBiOJN8zpAVEBybXcOwe4Ib8ngRRedqpFhYmZ84H9M9-SQwl0xx4k3T9PS5hfaWGlF26y3ViV4bqwcSqTGm1WPOeU0/s1600/leavecorderoalone.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgakBJZ3VdxOtFHztJU7iDBNfX_5_6RFVk9Gd9WVLpRErO7EcSidgBiOJN8zpAVEBybXcOwe4Ib8ngRRedqpFhYmZ84H9M9-SQwl0xx4k3T9PS5hfaWGlF26y3ViV4bqwcSqTGm1WPOeU0/s200/leavecorderoalone.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
Special thanks to <a href="http://twitter.com/SMcEwen_eh" target="_blank">@SMcEwen_eh</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/mentoch" target="_blank">@Mentoch</a> on Twitter for helping to fight the good fight in calming people's reactions last night as well as providing a couple of ideas for this post. If you're not already following them then go do so right now.<br />
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Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-767979126325105622012-07-03T11:45:00.000-07:002012-07-03T12:11:24.779-07:00How to Go About "Going For It"<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1ppCE1aDPFgIPR1WapSL2xhObXt6L09Kv8it0syrHL_g4wIllmEWiFuinjNwfygFQfXzrdfSlFIk7ONeNX3uaiqnUm05vLcp13n6XaUDvaskTpejEw-SydO2aPxuDB2fM_YZsW40E-ww/s1600/BautistaInDugout.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1ppCE1aDPFgIPR1WapSL2xhObXt6L09Kv8it0syrHL_g4wIllmEWiFuinjNwfygFQfXzrdfSlFIk7ONeNX3uaiqnUm05vLcp13n6XaUDvaskTpejEw-SydO2aPxuDB2fM_YZsW40E-ww/s400/BautistaInDugout.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Courtesy of <a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/05NjbcXfQqct3?__site=daylife&q=Jose+Bautista" target="_blank">Reuters Pictures</a> via <a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/05NjbcXfQqct3?__site=daylife&q=Jose+Bautista" target="_blank">DayLife</a></td></tr>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">On Saturday Jon Morosi had an <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Jose-Bautista-says-Toronto-Blue-Jays-in-position-to-battle-for-playoff-spot-063012" target="_blank">interesting column over at Fox Sports</a> that included a couple key quotes from Blue Jays superstar Jose Bautista. The quote that was most notable (and most tweeted (over and over and over)) was the one in which the star player of a baseball team urges his front office to and I quote "go for it". Shocker. </span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;">You may think this is going to be some angry blog post talking about how much I disagree with Jose Bautista, but actually for once I agree with a player's belief that the Jays should "go for it". Depending on your fandom and optimism levels you might think I'm A) A Homer or B) An Idiot, but I can assure you that I am neither.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;">The subset reasoning behind such a belief is that as stupid as it may sound the Jays need to appease the fan base. In most cases the blogger and sabrmetrician in me would scoff at such a statement and probably tell myself to throw away such a cockamamy idea never to be gazed upon again. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">However in this particular case there is a couple of things I would like to point out. </span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;">The Blue Jays average attendance this year sits firmly at 27,285 people per game. Last year the Blue Jays average attendence going in to the 40th home game of the season was only 21,152 people per game and that number only rose to 22,446 by the end of the 2011 season. The Blue Jays attendance this year is the highest it has been since 2008.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;">As well not only has the attendance been better, but so too has the influence. There were a couple of stories at the beginning of the year highlighting the fact that the Blue Jays were the talk of the town and to at least my surprise that interest has seemed to have carried through thus far. People are coming down to the ballpark once again and even if the Blue Jays don't make the playoffs this year, then at the very least they should make it seem like they tried.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;">You see attendance to any form of ongoing entertainment is like a plant. The interest that there has been in the Blue Jays this year is like a seed and in order to grow that seed into a plant that seed must be cultured and grown. In order to continue the positive trends in attendance the Blue Jays need to win and at this point in order to win they are going to need to do something at the deadline.</span><br />
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One direction to take could be similar to that of the 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates who last year remained within 5 games of a playoff throughout the course of July. Seeing their position and their team the Pirates stayed away from names like Beltran, Pence, Bourn and instead settled for a couple of lower key free agents in Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee.<br />
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Another possibility is to do something similar to the 2008 Brewers who remained within 3 games of a playoff spot throughout July of 2008. Come deadline time they made a couple of big moves to get C.C. Sabathia and Ray Durham. Their trade deadline acquisitions along with their already potent team pushed them to their first playoff berth in 26 years.<br />
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In the Pirates case they assessed that their team was probably over performing. In response they made a couple of moves to appease the fans' interest, but didn't put the interest over the importance of retaining their top prospects. In the Brewers case they assessed that their team was playing to their potential, made the moves necessary to push them into the playoffs, then reaped the rewards of a playoff birth.<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">Now where do the Jays fit into all of this? Well for starters the Jays sure aren't the 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates and probably lie much much closer to the '08 Brewers on a talent level. The thing that sets the Jays apart is on an ease of a path to the playoffs level, the Jays have a lot more to overcome.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;">Not only do they have to overcome a 2.5 game deficit in the always tough AL East, but after what happened in June it looks like they will have to do without Hutchison and Drabek for most if not all of the season. As well they'll be without Brandon Morrow, who was pitching quite brilliantly, for a few more starts at the very least. </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;">On top of all that as we saw on Monday, Ricky Romero simply isn't Ricky Romero anymore. Or at least he hasn't been thus far and isn't really showing any signs of improvement.</span><br />
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That leaves the Jays with no starters that they can "trust" until Morrow comes back and that assumes that he comes back the same as he left, which probably isn't the most realistic possibility. As well Including Romero, none of the current Blue Jays starters has a career FIP below 4.00 and the staff as a whole has a 15.8 K% which ranks 4th last in the league.<br />
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On top of all that the bullpen that many praised for its depth and quality in the preseason hasn't really performed up to par. Part of that is due to the fact that "Capital C Closer" and really good relief pitcher Sergio Santos has only pitched 5 innings this year, but the fact that the Blue Jays bullpen has given up the most home runs per nine innings of any team in the league sure hasn't helped.<br />
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That is why despite my homeristic inclination to say that the Jays should go all out and trade for Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels or whoever else is available, I am reluctant because I can see the potential road blocks and risks that could very easily outweigh the slim potential for the reward of a playoff spot.<br />
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That doesn't mean that the Jays should stand pat at the deadline, instead why not go the same route that the Pirates took last year. Trade for a starting pitcher in the ilk of Jeremy Guthrie and maybe a couple bullpen pieces. Make a push for the playoffs, but don't sacrifice the future. It is easier said than done, but with Anthopoulos at the helm it can happen.<br />
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Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://MLB.com/">MLB.com</a>, <a href="http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/teams/040/attendance.aspx?team=040" target="_blank">The Sports Network</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-41492655738317856102012-05-17T22:25:00.002-07:002012-05-18T18:53:59.530-07:00No One is Safe Anymore - The Adam Lind Story<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSN_Z3rrxskPXGHgeINRdngaaJXkIPNBjAwfawwaXYdFxkvjFXY27DmWb6jV4bHvADgn-O8KfWey7KyW5mvQZpoPFh8OqY_jNAWFZWlQHXELPk7dPY8Kb7KnmxZkypDkRohSux-0FRjCg/s1600/LindSmiling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSN_Z3rrxskPXGHgeINRdngaaJXkIPNBjAwfawwaXYdFxkvjFXY27DmWb6jV4bHvADgn-O8KfWey7KyW5mvQZpoPFh8OqY_jNAWFZWlQHXELPk7dPY8Kb7KnmxZkypDkRohSux-0FRjCg/s320/LindSmiling.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Credit: <a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/072vdV92HL1dz?__site=daylife&q=Adam+Lind" target="_blank">Reuters Pictures</a> via <a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/072vdV92HL1dz?__site=daylife&q=Adam+Lind" target="_blank">Daylife</a></td></tr>
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Over the course of his tenure in Toronto Alex Anthopoulos has quietly stressed one thing and that is that no one is safe, (almost) anyone can be traded at any time and apparently demoted too.<br />
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Last year Travis Snider a player everyone seemed to like was sent down after less than 2 months of production. Earlier this year Brett Cecil a player everyone seemed to think was destined for a rotation spot was demoted after a bad spring. Now the latest recipient of this treatment is former All-Star first baseman Adam Lind who yesterday was sent down after an absolutely horrid start to the season.<br />
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When I had originally wrote this blog post I had gone on the premise that I would absolutely condone the demotion of Adam Lind that I would get along on the band wagon and make Adam Lind my Official Blue Jays Scapegoat for the 2012 season.<br />
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I was going on the premise that Adam Lind had been terrible the entire season, which in a way he has, but before today I hadn't really taken a good look at his FanGraphs page and I may have been going on the wrong premise.<br />
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Yes, it is true that Adam Lind is hitting .186 on the season and that he has a wRC+ among the likes of Chone Figgins and Willie Bloomquist, but did you know that Lind is actually walking at a higher rate than he did in even 2009?<br />
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His weighted runs created might not look too hot, but he is walking at a career pace and maybe even getting a tad unlucky to boot. Over the course of the season thus far Adam Lind has a .209 BABIP. That number is 53 points below where it was last season, 68 points below his 2010 number, 82 points below Lind's career average, and 91 points below the league average.<br />
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Of course BABIP isn't perfect and a slower, power hitting (?) first base type like Lind generally sustains a BABIP that is lower than normal, but a .209 BABIP should easily move up and regress to the mean. Does that regression to the mean make him 2009 Adam Lind, probably not, but Lind is doing a couple things to try and make that happen. These underlying things lie in Lind's plate discipline data.<br />
<br />
This is Adam Lind's Pitch F/X Plate Discipline Line from 2009<br />
27.9 O-Swing% - 59.0 Z-Swing% - 43.0 Swing%<br />
75.5% O-Contact% - 87.1 Z-Contact% - 83.2 Contact%<br />
<br />
This is Adam Lind's Pitch F/X Plate Discipline Line from 2010 and 2011 Combined<br />
35.1 O-Swing% - 64.5 Z-Swing% - 49.3 Swing%<br />
67.6 O-Contact% - 84.7 Z-Contact% - 78.4 Contact%<br />
<br />
This is Adam Lind's Pitch F/X Plate Discipline Line from 2012<br />
27.9 O-Swing% - 57.3 Z-Swing% - 41.7 Swing%<br />
75.6 O-Contact% - 88.0 Z-Contact% - 83.6 Contact%<br />
<br />
Take a look at those three lines, take a really good look at them. What do you see? Well if you looked hard enough you probably saw that the 2010 and 2011 combination line is completely different from either of the other two lines oh and yeah Lind's 2012 plate discispline is eerily similar to his 2009 numbers.<br />
<br />
Those same 2009 numbers that made Adam Lind <strike>an All-Star,</strike> a Silver Slugger, and even an MVP Vote Getter. It seems for the past two seasons Jays fans have been holding on to the glory of that magical season hoping for more production from their failing first baseman. Will this be the year that it happens?<br />
<br />
Well let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. Yes, it is nice that Lind is taking more pitches and swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone. It is also nice that Lind is making contact on 5% more of the pitches that he swings at, but unfortunately solely plate discipline doesn't tell the whole story.<br />
<br />
Though Lind's plate discipline has been great and he is likely getting better pitches because of it he isn't necessarily taking advantage of these opportunities. He may be making contact on 83.6% of the pitches that he swings at, but Lind is also creating ground balls on 48.9% of the balls he is putting in play.<br />
<br />
In comparison to 2009 that 48.9% is 6.9% higher, but then the thing about batted ball outcomes is that they aren't solely independent. Those extra ground balls that Lind has been hitting are coming out of his line drive rate and fly ball rate resulting in close to career lows in both categories.<br />
<br />
Beyond that what has hurt Lind in the power department is his 9.7% HR/FB, a number 5.4% below Lind's career average.<br />
<br />
So then after all this where does the verdict lie? In terms of plate discipline Lind has been right on par with his 2009 numbers, but then in the batted ball data he is far from where he was that magical year.<br />
<br />
The Jays have purportedly cited that they sent Lind down in order for him to "gain confidence". That so called "confidence" that Lind supposedly needs will very likely come while he is off crushing balls in that bandbox park in Vegas and in that bandbox of a league that is the PCL, but it is possible that it could come at the expense of his approach?<br />
<br />
I don't know about you, but if I was seeing pitches I knew I could just crush out of the ballpark I'd probably swing at them as apposed to waiting for better ones that may or may not come.<br />
<br />
Its kind of okay if this "confidence" comes back to Adam Lind in Vegas, but if he takes what I predict to be a new approach in Vegas back to the MLB he could have quite a few issues. At that point I'm not sure how well his confidence will do when he is swinging at pitches way outside the zone in the unforgiving big leagues.<br />
<br />
Then if you even factor out the possible potential loss of production from Adam Lind, how well could it possibly serve you to be starting a potential AAAA player in Yan Gomes? My well thought hypothesis says that it probably won't go over so well.<br />
<br />
In the end you the reader must realize that I was one of the ones criticzing Lind all season. I was one of the ones clamouring for Lind to be benched, but I have realized the ere of my ways. Lind surely doesn't need to be hitting in that clean up spot that he has not been suited for in over two years, but I fail to see how having him to AAA will help anything.<br />
<br />
And please understand one thing, I am in no way suggesting that Lind will become what he was in 2009, but with the way he has been at the plate this year, he has put himself in the very best shape to do so. You know other than the fact that he hasn't been able to hit a fly ball to save his life.<br />
<br /></div>
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Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://texasleaguers.com/" target="_blank">Texas Leaguers</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-26217091489633373262012-04-30T20:30:00.002-07:002012-04-30T20:36:09.626-07:00Thinking Blue: Weekly Recap - April 30th<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiidxR8QS9mTa6EQctj3ZAwFw1ISUfwdkGCFxHX3BMhyphenhyphenfXHhX-crNSVF9ieUrwix5xtoXLmijF8tYsuJ7M71LT5ielay5S3hTXDRGWpxokOhliwXLn4f4w4xd6OJ540TdTM_UDh9AmRSsA/s1600/bautista+swinging+away.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiidxR8QS9mTa6EQctj3ZAwFw1ISUfwdkGCFxHX3BMhyphenhyphenfXHhX-crNSVF9ieUrwix5xtoXLmijF8tYsuJ7M71LT5ielay5S3hTXDRGWpxokOhliwXLn4f4w4xd6OJ540TdTM_UDh9AmRSsA/s320/bautista+swinging+away.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Credit: <a href="http://news.daylife.com/photo/0bTif9z84e8Yv?__site=daylife&q=Toronto+Blue+Jays" target="_blank">Getty Images</a> via <a href="http://news.daylife.com/photo/0bTif9z84e8Yv?__site=daylife&q=Toronto+Blue+Jays" target="_blank">Daylife</a></td></tr>
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<b>Record This Week: 3-3</b><br />
<br />
All is no longer right in this world. Down is up, up is down and the Orioles are at the top of the AL East. Of course I'm kidding as thus far the Jays have only played 23 games, which is only 14% of the the 162 game season.<br />
<br />
They sure didn't build on their success from last weekend in which they swept the Kansas City Royals in a 4 game series, but in a long season every team has slumps. This week the Jays relatively poor play resulted in a finish at 4th place in the AL East, but with one hot week they could be right back at the top.<br />
<br />
Granted that week likely won't be this upcoming week as the Jays have a 3 game series with the Rangers at home and then a grueling 4 game series in Anaheim against the Angels. However the point still holds true. The Jays are only 2 games behind the Orioles in first and a half a game behind the Yankees for the second wild card spot.<br />
<br />
Not that it needs to be taken too much into account though, if the Jays go winless in the next week, its not something that you want to see, but so what. Over the course of a full season the true talent level of this team will shine through and I think they'll be pretty darn good. If you're patient enough to sit through an entire baseball game you should be patient enough to wait for the outcome of the 162 game MLB season. Winning is nice, but patience is key.<br />
<br />
<b>#StillFreeSnider?</b><br />
If you follow the Blue Jays online community on Twitter (And really why wouldn't you be), you may or may not have noticed something, the lack of #FreeSnider tweets. That partially has to do that with the fact that Snider left Thursday's AAA game after <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-travis-snider-injured-in-minor-league-game/article2416428/" target="_blank">jamming his wrist while trying to catch a ball in left field</a>, but it could also be the fact that over the past week Eric Thames has been absolutely mashing. After this week Eric Thames is now the second best hitter on the Jays according to <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=15,d" target="_blank">wOBA</a> (that's excluding Jeff Mathis and his 18 plate appearances) and also is second on the team in OBP.<br />
<br />
Of course again this is a very small sample size, but Thames has looked good, well offensively at least. During the series against the Orioles in which the Blue Jays amassed 3 runs in 3 games, Thames seemed to be the sole bright spot. He had two home runs (one off of his glove) and led the Jays in WPA or Win Probability added <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2012-04-26&team=Orioles&dh=0&season=2012" target="_blank">during that series</a>.<br />
<br />
However the one thing I fail to understand in all of this is the sort of anti-Colby-esque mindset that has been put around Eric Thames. When Colby has played well there has been dozens of tweets along the lines of "where the haters at now?" or "Colby don't look so bad anymore" as statistics based Jays fans make their proclamation to those who doubted Colby last year that Colby is in fact a good player. On the flipside of things when Thames has played well it has been the statistical community who is shut up by his production.<br />
<br />
Don't get me wrong its nice to see Thames hitting well and the Jays getting good production out of left field, but I keep the mindset that as long as Snider is fully healthy (which he isn't at the present moment) he should be the one in the majors. The reason being that for one despite being the second best hitter on the team according to wOBA, Thames still has a negative WAR. Why? Because he has been terrible defensively, which has resulted in a -5.0 UZR.<br />
<br />
I'm not going to go into all of the many details on the matter of who should be up with the Jays and why, as I did that pretty extensively back when Snider<a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/03/how-not-to-win-world-series.html" target="_blank"> was demoted</a>, but I'll say one thing. That is that the Jays gave Snider a very short leash in 2011 and to be honest, despite Eric Thames' sudden offensive power surge *cough* .354 BABIP *cough*, I'd hope they do the same with Thames in 2012. When he's hitting he can stay, but when he should be on the first plane back to AAA. Viva Las Vegas.<br />
<br />
<b>Where Oh Where has Bautista Gone</b><br />
Last year on this day Jose Bautista had 1.312 OPS, a .366 BA and he led the league in practically every offensive category. This year so far he has had a .670 OPS and a .187 BA and has been one of the Jays' worst hitters.<br />
<br />
At first glance that looks really bad and you probably either A. Spazzed out at your computer screen or B. Shrugged it off as just small sample size. Both sides may seem like plausible reactions, but the answer lies in between.<br />
<br />
If you look beyond just the raw offensive numbers, Bautista hasn't really been as bad as he's seemed. His walk rate is below his gaudy 2011 numbers, but also above the 2010 numbers. That walk rate is to go along with a career best 11.6% K rate. The encouraging thing about those numbers is that walk and strikeout rates are generally statistics that normalize quickly, meaning they can be taken in to context in smaller sample sizes.<br />
<br />
Beyond that most of Bautista's plate discipline numbers have stayed relatively the same as well, meaning he hasn't necessarily "seen the ball" any worse than he had last season. However one thing worth noting is that Bautista's O-Swing% has jumped up 5% showing that despite him making contact with roughly the same amount of pitches and getting roughly the same amount of pitches in the strike zone, Bautista has been swinging more at pitches outside the zone.<br />
<br />
Because Bautista is swinging at more pitches outside the zone and therefore making contact with more pitches outside the zone, in some ways it explains why numbers like his slugging percentage or isolated power have been so low.<br />
<br />
It is true that he is still making contact with pitches, but the contact isn't necessarily good contact. Rather than hitting sweet homeruns he is hitting more weak grounders to the shortstop. This is shown through Bautista's batted ball data, which includes a drop in both LD% and FB% in order to facilitate an increase in GB%. Ground balls often aren't a good thing and especially not a good thing for a player who is considered a power hitter.<br />
<br />
Though as with all that has happened so far in this season it still is small sample size and it shouldn't be taken as the end all be all luck stat, but Jose Bautista has had a ridiculous .179 BABIP. That number being almost .100 points below his career average.<br />
<br />
So then Bautista may not be performing to the level he did last year, but it would be very hard to expect that from him. His approach seems to have changed slightly at the plate, but he also gotten extremely unlucky. He is regressing and he is getting older, there's no way he is this bad, give it time, have patience.<br />
<br />
<i>Bonus: The Home Run off of Thames' Glove</i>
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Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh18VtvMWoFK7MqVAYWouMF6XZr28z2e10RZKFV8aIxZJFiNl0ELHA22Q6hcfbu1Pehu9NgzmAEx6UnfhtEpb4qup3g5HhjyKtt2thVMOs2MS0t3shCtxNiIvml279pdCrQ-S0Xgb6FgqI/s1600/Farrel+Bautista.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh18VtvMWoFK7MqVAYWouMF6XZr28z2e10RZKFV8aIxZJFiNl0ELHA22Q6hcfbu1Pehu9NgzmAEx6UnfhtEpb4qup3g5HhjyKtt2thVMOs2MS0t3shCtxNiIvml279pdCrQ-S0Xgb6FgqI/s320/Farrel+Bautista.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Credit: <a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/0fqdapQcPkcqq?__site=daylife&q=John+Farrell" target="_blank">AP Photo</a> via <a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/0fqdapQcPkcqq?__site=daylife&q=John+Farrell" target="_blank">Daylife</a></td></tr>
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In baseball managers seem to play a significant role in the team. The managers manage the players, they manage the game and some fans would argue that they are the glue that holds a team together.<br />
<br />
As a member of the more forward thinking baseball community I'm well aware that the little things that we can observe form managers like lineup cards and pitching changes is a very small percentile of the job in its entirety. However because those things are all that we can see they are also all the we can criticize.<br />
<br />
In 2011 one could argue that there was quite a bit to criticize with Blue Jays Manager John Farrell. It seemed he had trouble identifying his pitcher's strengths in the bullpen and didn't give two shits about who was where in the Jays lineup.<br />
<br />
At the beginning of the 2011 season, Farrell continually put Octavio Dotel up against left handers, when at that point he was pitching like a ROOGY. Furthermore, countless times he put Adam Lind in the cleanup spot against left handers despite Lind being the 6th worse hitter against lefties in the past decade (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=500&type=1&season=2012&month=13&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=16,a" target="_blank">according to wRC+</a>).<br />
<br />
As the year wore and rookies were called up from the minors things didn't exactly improve. Farrell hit Eric Thames in the 2 hole whilst he was slumping and Brett Lawrie anywhere from 5-8 whilst he was hitting like one of the best players in the league. I digress.<br />
<br />
Though Matthew Kory's (<a href="http://twitter.com/mattymatty2000" target="_blank">@MattyMatty2000</a>) poop joke algorithm has declared John Farrell's managerial decisions as poop on the scale of 1-Poop, one must remember one thing. That thing is that last year John Farrell was a Rookie manager. As any Rookie player would do, a Rookie manager also makes mistakes.<br />
<br />
What I find more important, which is also what scouts look for in a Rookie is improvement. This year Farrell seems to have improved to levels unimaginable. For one there is not a bullpen decision of his this year that has been too out of line. For another it seems he finally realizes what Adam Lind is...a platoon player.<br />
<br />
In response to his newfound recognition of Lind's true abilities (or lack thereof) Farrell has taken to dropping Lind in the batting order and sometimes even benching him when the Jays are facing a lefty starter.<br />
<br />
Furthermore, what has been described as a managerial trend in this short season and something Farrell seems to have embraced are shifts. If you have watched any number of the Jays games this season you probably have witnessed these shifts.<br />
<br />
Particularly against lefties the Jays have played two different shifts. One shift where the SS, 2B, and 1B players all stay in their regular position, but Brett Lawrie over at third has moved into shallow right field. Another shift has done the same thing except Lawrie was instead moved to a position straight up the middle.<br />
<br />
I'm sure there have been other slight adjustments that my eyes, always distracted by watching the pristine pitching performances put on the by the Jays, have not captured. Though for the particular shifts described above, they have seemed to be relatively effective. On multiple occasions the ball has been hit directly to the shifted player resulting in an out and end to the inning.<br />
<br />
All of these changes, all of this improvement is wonderful. Where as last year it looked like John Farrell could become the next Jim Tracy with his managerial decisions, this year he seems to be moving towards the ever eternal Joe Maddon managerial territory.<br />
<br />
Although good managerial decisions don't necessarily add a whole lot to the success of a team, they sure don't hurt. With good managerial decisions the players are happy, the fans are happy, and newspapers have to write about something other than the bad decision the manager made last night...everybody wins.
<br />
<br />
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Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRZiGy4vs-o2xw_mjkM52X62aVGqV0qUbpksjgCm74IUJq_oOiZzAMHt89HK003QCPNdQp_E5qQH0Ikv-VzIlWEE6uFI2ArqlV84TzKcqkcdr0w6CM9yRtD9sWOeY2-3-dY5Rg_vMxY9Y/s1600/drewhutchison.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRZiGy4vs-o2xw_mjkM52X62aVGqV0qUbpksjgCm74IUJq_oOiZzAMHt89HK003QCPNdQp_E5qQH0Ikv-VzIlWEE6uFI2ArqlV84TzKcqkcdr0w6CM9yRtD9sWOeY2-3-dY5Rg_vMxY9Y/s320/drewhutchison.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Courtesy of <a href="http://daylife.com/" target="_blank">Daylife</a> via <a href="http://news.daylife.com/photo/02Rv6G361o5T2?__site=daylife&q=drew+hutchison" target="_blank">Reuters Pictures</a></td></tr>
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After a couple of weeks of a few lucky wins, it looks like the Blue Jays are getting back in the swing of things. Edwin is hitting, KJ is hitting, Colby is hitting, and even the so called slumping Bautista is recovering from early season troubles. Furthermore after yesterday's win against the Royals the Jays sit now atop the AL East tied with the Yankees for first place.<br />
<br />
These next couple of weeks look to be pretty crucial in establishing the standings in the early goings. Both the OriLoLes, who haven't been so LoL worthy thus far, and the Rays are only a half game back of the Jays and Yankees. Of course the Red Sox and all of their beer and chicken issues are sitting firm in last place, and despite their atrocious relief pitching and the pessimistic beliefs of Red Sox fans everywhere they are still a force to be reckoned with in the AL East.<br />
<br />
<b>Hutch's First Big League Start</b><br />
As I'm sure most of you saw, Drew Hutchison (Yes, that's H-u-t-c-h-i-s-o-n with one N) made a start for the Blue Jays on Saturday. Yes, the Blue Jays Top 10 prospect (and Top 100 MLB Prospect if you <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7547690/mlb-top-100-prospects-2012-mike-trout-bryce-harper-more" target="_blank">ask Keith Law</a>) took to the mound in a duel against Luis Mendoza. Unfortunately I wasn't able to catch his entire outing as I missed the beginning, but from what I saw he looked like he held his own.<br />
<br />
His line on the night didn't end up being exactly what you'd like to see. He gave up 5 runs over 5 1/3 innings and two home runs. To go along with that Hutchison walked 3 batters and hit one more. On the surface that doesn't look so great for a pitcher's debut, but Hutch is only 21 and most pitchers don't produce Kyle Drabek like debuts. Besides Hutchison did end up striking out 4 over the 5 1/3 innings and got the win, if thats the sort of thing you care about (I don't).<br />
<br />
The outing wasn't the most impressive thing in the world, but I also wasn't disappointed. Again, he's still only 21 and will be for another 4 months, he was just called up from AA and its his first start in the majors. Not to excuse the performance, but occasionally that kind of pressure can be pretty daunting. Before we make any rash decisions or evaluations on Hutch lets at least see another start of his, an opportunity I hope the Jays give him.<br />
<br />
P.S. If you want a more In-Depth Analysis of Hutch's first start, the kind of thing I have been known to do from time to time, you can check out MjwW's <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/4/22/2966387/some-analysis-of-drew-hutchisons-debut" target="_blank">FanPost</a> over at <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/4/22/2966387/some-analysis-of-drew-hutchisons-debut" target="_blank">Bluebird Banter</a> where he excellently broke down the start using Pitch F/X numbers.<br />
<br />
<b>Santos to the DL</b><br />
One week after coming back from the birth of his first child, Sergio Santos is on the 15 day DL for Shoulder Inflammation as reported by <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/SNBarryDavis/status/194105610864832513" target="_blank">@SNBarryDavis</a>. This isn't exactly the news you want to hear from your favourite team, but it doesn't project to be a huge pressing issue. If you assume Santos is as good as he was last year over the course of this season, you lose only a little more than 0.1 WAR off the season total, which in the grand scheme of things is a relatively small number.<br />
<br />
In the meantime the Jays have thrust "Capital C Closer" Francisco Cordero into the closer role. Cordero isn't as good as Santos, but having him as your closer isn't the worst thing in the world. He has a declining skill set, which I have <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/01/super-bullpen.html" target="_blank">outlined before</a>, but he should be fine in the role for 15 days. However, one thing I fear with Cordero is if he actually performs "well" in his little stint in the 9th inning role, there may be pressure to keep him there.<br />
<br />
Santos hasn't been great so far this season, but it has been an extremely small sample. Nonetheless if Cordero performs well, I could easily see the fans and the media for that matter building the narrative that Cordero needs to be in that closer role citing Santos' two blown saves in this short season. Of course I don't care about blown saves, but the Toronto media, well they sure seem to.<br />
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Colby Haters Be Gone</b><br />
Colby Rasmus is always going to be easy pickin's as an entity that everyone can throw their anger at. He is the inevitable scapegoat, he is athletic and graceful both on the field and at the plate and that has gotten him the J.D. Drew treatment.<br />
<br />
Nonetheless Colby has done his very best to silence his naysayers, which seemed to be more than half of the fan base after last year's debacle. After a terrible showing last season following his transition from NL to AL, St. Louis to Toronto, and La Russa to Freedom, Rasmus definitely wasn't helping himself in the fan appreciation department.<br />
<br />
People called him lazy, people called the trade stupid, but people say a lot of things. Well at least they did.<br />
<br />
Nowadays with Colby having hit 3 home runs thus far with an OBP of .321 all good for a 120 wRC+, people aren't saying a lot. These "people" have seemed to have been silenced by Colby's admittedly fantastic performance both at the plate and in center field.<br />
<br />
He is not hitting to the level that he did in 2010, his wRC+ is 9 points lower, but his defense is being rated better by the always confusing UZR. This has put him on pace for a 5.4 fWAR season. That pace likely won't continue, but there is a chance that it very well could. Rasmus has the potential for that type of season, it will be interesting to see if he has that in him.<br />
<br />
He's hitting that triple, double, single, that smooth home run, he is fire burning in the outfield and quickly sliding his way right back into Toronto fan's hearts...for the time being. #Colby2012<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="258" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/pI8l87uyDXM?rel=0" width="336"></iframe><br />
<i><br /></i><br />
<i>Side Note: Does anyone else see the resemblance?</i><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMMVrXqFnaPVPVTkeoLT43O2Fgqs-ovoGtTWKWxkDPSR7-CWdS1DtknbxIbMQSrG6D2kG2yezn13vz97Z63qfbNfUCqIpbzKZX3p97rqlx3J-KNU7UHbcnulA-5MjM-CRF9ptQmnTbgUA/s1600/Picture+10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMMVrXqFnaPVPVTkeoLT43O2Fgqs-ovoGtTWKWxkDPSR7-CWdS1DtknbxIbMQSrG6D2kG2yezn13vz97Z63qfbNfUCqIpbzKZX3p97rqlx3J-KNU7UHbcnulA-5MjM-CRF9ptQmnTbgUA/s320/Picture+10.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Courtesy of <a href="http://daylife.com/" target="_blank">Daylife</a> via <a href="http://news.daylife.com/photo/06TpfVH2Kk8Bv?__site=daylife&q=zach+stewart+blue+jays" target="_blank">AP Photo</a> and <a href="http://news.daylife.com/photo/00dC1kk6jeepO?__site=daylife&q=drew+hutchison" target="_blank">Getty Images</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-4409796233120275432012-04-11T16:59:00.004-07:002012-04-11T21:23:26.763-07:00Drabek Watch: Overanalyzing His First Start<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZNSKENMZyfJNUD0zfkPKHgij-KpU0vyclIBSWS1anqyLnR8IIvhLpA3ZW-Hg_xtLW9Xw6FlayXtqrkP1sH_8MMGUBSSYsxJslIOLcDbCE8C-AKalUQDrv8cLmjllCbKzcbT3hjk18VyM/s1600/Kyle+Drabek+Watch.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZNSKENMZyfJNUD0zfkPKHgij-KpU0vyclIBSWS1anqyLnR8IIvhLpA3ZW-Hg_xtLW9Xw6FlayXtqrkP1sH_8MMGUBSSYsxJslIOLcDbCE8C-AKalUQDrv8cLmjllCbKzcbT3hjk18VyM/s320/Kyle+Drabek+Watch.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">WARNING: Everything in this blog post must be taken in to context as it will be discussing the smallest of sample sizes, therefore any over or under-excitement that may be experienced through reading this blog post is not the fault of the writer, you were warned.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div>If you didn't already know from my overenthusiastic assessment of Drabek in the Projecting Performance series or the plea I made for him to become relevant among Jays discussion in February, I'm a pretty big <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drabeky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Drabek</a></strong> fan. As such I was sure to attend his first start of the season last night and to say the least I had mixed feelings.<br />
<br />
As a fan and observer, it seemed to me like he was keeping his composure better than he had last year, not reacting when things didn't go quite as planned and generally having a better presence on the mound. By this I mean he seemed like he kept a more consistent delivery, keeping on line with the plate, and not getting out of his mechanics when he gave up hits or runs.<br />
<br />
As well from a very very amateur scouting standpoint (if you can even call it that), in terms of his actual pitches, they "looked" a lot better than last year. The key in that previous sentence being the vision aspect as any fan can attest to, when you're at the game you tend to get a little googly eyed and fandom can get in the way of your objectivity. This ultimately brought me to do the little bit of extra research after the game.<br />
<br />
The reason I questioned my initial feelings about the game is though Drabek "looked good", from a stats point of view it didn't seem like there was too much change. After his first start Drabek has put himself at much improved 1.69 ERA and 2.86 FIP, but his 4.49 xFIP was more remeniscent of the 2011 season. It is true however, that number is influenced by his apparent luck as evidenced by the .200 BABIP and 83.3% strand rate, which in small sample sizes can be very iffy. Moreover when getting to the raw statistics, Drabek still walked 3 batters in his 5.2 innings of work and only struck out 4. Astonishingly to some that strikeout to walk rate is higher than last season, but it could not have gotten any worse and there is not nearly enough change to be evidence of any true change.<br />
<br />
Furthermore despite the apparent change in mechanics and pitch choice that the Jays had done with Drabek in Spring Training and over the offseason, Drabek's Pitch F/X information showed mixed results. On Monday's <a href="http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=7795931" target="_blank">Baseball Today Podcast</a> Keith Law mentioned that in Spring Training the Jays had Drabek throwing more two seamers and cutters rather than four seamers, because Drabek was lacking movement on the four seamers in 2011.<br />
<br />
However as per <a href="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/475138/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2012&to=4%2F10%2F2012" target="_blank">Texas Leaguers</a> Drabek actually threw 47.3% four seamers in Tuesday's game, where as he only threw 34.8% four seamers last year. Beyond that the percentage of two seamers thrown was relatively similar and it seemed like Drabek threw quite a bit more curveballs and far less cutters. Of course this could always be an issue with pitch mislabeling and pitch choice would depend on the type of situation that Drabek is in so there is quite a bit of room for error per say.<br />
<br />
Last, but not least one last "analysis" if you will would be of the pitch F/X variety. Last year if you looked at some of Drabek's pitch locations and release points (both graphs directly below) you can see that they a little bit scrambled. The pitches Drabek threw were very wild and his release point greatly varied not only form start to start, but from pitch to pitch.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjppE79jO-Ij1eX9JQb_7IgAjZS8CCckfyxQB2TN1_7UczCiIzcSpAGU1ctfHWxv7hPsK_1fJcFGibbebqU6apyL6N21-mhsFwvw4rUzEfZF1mJQpXKmBYPRxyqlzMMS0glLjRKtgJrPXo/s1600/drabek+release+points+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjppE79jO-Ij1eX9JQb_7IgAjZS8CCckfyxQB2TN1_7UczCiIzcSpAGU1ctfHWxv7hPsK_1fJcFGibbebqU6apyL6N21-mhsFwvw4rUzEfZF1mJQpXKmBYPRxyqlzMMS0glLjRKtgJrPXo/s320/drabek+release+points+2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Drabek's 2011 Release Points</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4xZug0ezMAiqnFaCzUvSS6twbP7B83y_aB1Dbzdz2NNY-mN283dZEgP0YB6t5BzLWKkXhCoLvSWciKVSpyCAeFEoMTctGncrZXGHrGLle6CDc4xvsYC1HdwRtjnKAZDDFJV7yJ3GNp8I/s1600/drabek+pitch+ocation+2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4xZug0ezMAiqnFaCzUvSS6twbP7B83y_aB1Dbzdz2NNY-mN283dZEgP0YB6t5BzLWKkXhCoLvSWciKVSpyCAeFEoMTctGncrZXGHrGLle6CDc4xvsYC1HdwRtjnKAZDDFJV7yJ3GNp8I/s320/drabek+pitch+ocation+2011.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Drabek's 2011 Pitch Locations</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Then if you look at the pitch location and release point graphs for Drabek's start on Tuesday, they are much more condensed. The release points all look much more consistent than they were in 2011 and his pitches appear to be much less "wild" and more of where he would want to put them. The changes in the Pitch F/X results could be attributed to the mechanical changes that the Jays apparently did in Spring Training and are similar to those described by Keith law.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbYVCby6kxavJuaKy-dUYd9-H0PrhiocQtc_sb_hzEaJ2kLMX8xtRCqhu7W0O5c5_UyjiKX-Bq6PZcFX4-F-fjHXXcG4GJbOnjHDdnb9cEBZEcU_2RHzepyv3kN88YuxAjtKhAUeU18SY/s1600/drabek+release+points.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbYVCby6kxavJuaKy-dUYd9-H0PrhiocQtc_sb_hzEaJ2kLMX8xtRCqhu7W0O5c5_UyjiKX-Bq6PZcFX4-F-fjHXXcG4GJbOnjHDdnb9cEBZEcU_2RHzepyv3kN88YuxAjtKhAUeU18SY/s320/drabek+release+points.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Drabek's 2012 Release Points</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizaXcFy2zPOriXo0co3ES1xSoRTrAw2RQvC41fISdPj7mWEJjlb8hH64PWDkIsYKZ-IHRzLpa2qHyxmcoRhYTKQJdBKRbtPGXXYlqEkDtSq5zhA3MLDIaHi8km60v3tZUvoiWrd7hNuCY/s1600/Drabek+pitch+location+2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizaXcFy2zPOriXo0co3ES1xSoRTrAw2RQvC41fISdPj7mWEJjlb8hH64PWDkIsYKZ-IHRzLpa2qHyxmcoRhYTKQJdBKRbtPGXXYlqEkDtSq5zhA3MLDIaHi8km60v3tZUvoiWrd7hNuCY/s320/Drabek+pitch+location+2012.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Drabek's 2012 Pitch Locations</td></tr>
</tbody></table>In summary Drabek's first start looked pretty good through the simple stats and in person. Some of the luck stats suggested that his performance was helped by the luck gods and some of peripheral stats suggest he may not have been as good as advertised. However in terms of mechanical change rather than production, it appears he may be a bit of a changed pitcher. He is hitting his spots and getting a consistent release point, which could very easily result in better peripherals and game results than he had in 2011.<br />
<div><br />
</div><div>Though remember this is one game we're talking about here. In one game a terrible hitter like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathije01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jeff Mathis</a></strong> can hit 1.000 and a terrible pitcher like Armando Gallaraga can pitch a perfect game. Despite that, how Drabek produced in his first start of the season is intriguing to say the least and definitely pushes towards my hopes and predictions that he will be what we thought he would be when he was the Jays No. 1 Prospect only a year ago.</div><div><br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://texasleaguers.com/" target="_blank">Texas Leaguers</a>, <a href="http://espn.com/" target="_blank">ESPN</a><br />
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<br />
Going in to 2011 the Blue Jays infield had more questions than Encarnacion has errors at third base. Would Lind and Hill return to 2009 form? Would Yunel Escobar build on a strong finish to the 2010 season? Would Arencibia improve on his abysmal call up performance? Would Encarnacion be able to play third base? Over the course of the season we found answers to those questions and things worked themselves out as they usually do. This year there may be even more questions with a couple of higher upside players in Kelly Johnson and Brett Lawrie added to the infield later in the year. However rather than questions on if players could be feasible, this year we seem to be asking how much better could they get.<br />
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<b>Adam Lind</b><br />
At this point I have lost all hope in Adam Lind. Some still seem to think that he could return to 2009 form many citing his .508 wOBA in the 2 months after he returned from injury. For one thing that was in a 123 PA sample and for another producing that well is great, but not when the other four months he produced a sub .300 wOBA to go along with his sub .300 OBP. As well when you consider that during Lind's stretch of extreme relevance he was facing 7% less lefties than the rest of the season you could see why he had a bit of a boost.<br />
<br />
The problem I then have with the people who talk about Lind's two monster months are that they are also generally the same people that say Lind performed poorly late in the year because of his injury. What it really seems like is some people just can't let go of Lind's rather impressive 3.7 fWAR season in 2009 and who could blame them. Adam Lind was a great player, but there is a large emphasis on the 'was' there. As time goes on that great 2009 season more and more becomes the very definition of a 'career year'.<br />
<br />
Of course I outlined this <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/02/breaking-down-adam-lind.html" target="_blank">before</a>, but in short in 2009 Lind simply saw the ball better. This isn't simply a factor of being hot though, in 2009 Lind had an O-Swing% almost 10% better than any other year of his career. He was seeing the ball better, but for whatever reason that really hasn't translated in to any other year of Lind's career and at this point I doubt it ever will.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Lind isn't a great player, but he's not the worst first baseman in the league (He's close). Despite the putrid results in 2011, I'd expect some improvement in 2012. He may not be one of the best hitters in baseball for a month again, but I'd guess that the production evens outs a little and he becomes at the very least an above average hitter in 2012. Unfortunately being a slightly above average hitter at first base simply won't cut it and the Jays could seriously find themselves pining for Votto come November. In the end of it all, it couldn't get any worse, could it?<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 1.2</b><br />
<br />
<b>Kelly Johnson</b><br />
Kelly Johnson didn't have a great 2011, but I'm definitely less worried about him than some of the others. Sure he did hit almost as terribly as Hill has the past couple years, but he's only one year removed from a 5.9 fWAR season. As well unlike Lind who did have a good season, Kelly has had a couple other respectable season with 2.7 fWAR in 2008 and 3.6 fWAR in 2007.<br />
<br />
Furthermore it wasn't as if Kelly was Jeff Mathis with the stick last season. Despite hitting .222 last year Kelly Johnson still had a OBP higher than Adam Lind as well as a 2.2 fWAR. Meaning that even if he produced exactly the same as he did last year he would still be more than two times better than former second baseman Aaron Hill was.<br />
<br />
The bonus on top of that if one would expect him to perform better. The course of his career has been a plethora of up and down seasons. He was bad last year so one would expect him to be better this year. Well that and he has shown that he has the skills to be a very good player.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
KJ wasn't great in 2011, but he was better than Aaron Hill and was more than just a serviceable second baseman. Beyond that he has history of success including his 5.9 fWAR season from 2010. Because of this one would expect a bounce back year from Kelly, maybe not to the tune of his 2010 season, but he could surely outperform what he did last year as well as what he did in 2008 and 2009.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 3.5</b><br />
<br />
<b>Yunel Escobar</b><br />
Last year Yunel was the very proof that Anthopoulos' plan can work. He was unwanted in Atlanta because of supposed personal issues with Bobby Cox, but that didn't bother AA. He saw the potential and it payed off last year. Going forward Yunel would appear to continue to put out similar production. Prior to his iffy 2010 he was more than just a serviceable shortstop. Two other times he had an fWAR above 3.5 and in 2009 he had a better season than he did in 2011.<br />
<br />
That right there is what sets Yunel apart from some of Toronto's other high potential players. Unlike the Sniders and Rasmusi (Yes that is the plural of Rasmus) of this world Yunel has a history of well sustained success. It wouldn't be crazy at all to assume at least another 4.0 WAR season out of Yunel with the possibility for more. He is aging and will be getting closer to the back end of his prime this year at age 29, but the tools he has generally aren't the ones that are conducive to the immediate effects of aging.<br />
<br />
For example Yunel isn't much of a speedster, but rather a high hit tool, high walk kind of guy. That should do well to keep his offensive numbers up for longer than the average shortstop's prime. As well on the defensive side of things, a lot of Yunel's defensive value is gained from his throwing arm rather than his raw defensive techniques.<br />
<br />
Although the fact that his arm is less conducive to aging could matter quite a bit less come 2013. At that time Cuban defensive wizard Adeiny Hechavarria could be pushing to make the big league roster, that is assuming he can hit and that assumption is no small load. If called up Adeiny could be the best defensive shortstop in the major leagues, but if his minor league numbers are any indication he could have a sub Adam Dunn batting average. In the end I'm going to bet the hitting will be his kryptonite and the reason why Yunel won't have to worry about anyone taking shortstop from him, for this year at least.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict</b><br />
Outside of the first half of the 2010 season, Yunel Escobar has consistently been an above average to well above average shortstop and I don't expect much to change going forward. He's still going to hit for a high average, with some power, and some speed. He is most certainly not the prototypical shortstop, but his defense is slightly above average and he gets the job done. In the end thats all that really matters.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 4.0</b><br />
<br />
<b>Brett Lawrie</b><br />
To Blue Jays fans, Brett Lawrie is more than just a player, he is an icon, a Canadian god, and the man who could take their team to the playoffs. From the excitement around him it would seem as if he is some sort of Tebow North, except he is definitely not as kosher as his equivalent to the south. Besides that Lawrie is good, but assuredly not as good as he was last season.<br />
<br />
If Lawrie were to somehow become a Canadian god it may be possible that he would put up a 9.5 WAR season, which is his 2.7 fWAR season in 2011 prorated over 600 plate appearances, unfortunately for us he is not. However he is still very, very good. Keith Law ranked him at No. 10 on his <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7291374/mlb-justin-upton-leads-top-50-list-mlb-players-age-25" target="_blank">Top 50 Players Under Age 25 list</a> and John Sickels had him at No. 2 on his <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/28/2909005/my-favorite-young-players-25-and-younger#storyjump" target="_blank">Favourite Players, 25 and Under list</a>. In his write up Sickels said, "The only thing I'm concerned about here is a possible tendency towards nagging injuries," but also praised Lawrie's all around game.<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Lawrie can run, he can throw, he can hit, he can hit for power, and as Sickels notes, "[he has] a glove that is underrated at the minimum." Lawrie has the tools, the question is just going to be whether he can turn those tools into fruition and then be able to stay on the field to sustain that production.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">We saw what he can do in 171 plate appearances, but that is a still an eerily small sample size and nothing that should have fans realistically projecting him as an MVP candidate. ZiPS was pretty high on him, projecting a .275 average, 27 homers, 24 SBs, and a 119 OPS+. Beyond that they in the comps section his No. 1 comp was Chipper Jones and No. 2 was Adrian Beltre, which is definitely not too shabby in the projection category. As for me I think Lawrie is great, but he is really difficult to project. He could be on the Ryan Braun path or he could fall flat on his face. He did well according to both the numbers and scouts, which is encouraging, but it could take some time for him to reach superstar status.</span></span><br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 4.2</b><br />
<br />
<b>J.P. Arencibia </b><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;">J.P. is a lot of things, the holder of the franchise record for most home runs by a catcher in a rookie season, the creator of the Tim Kurkjian impersonations trend, a lady killer among female Blue Jays fans, and the not so proud owner .282 OBP. He was fine in 2011, he was a bad hitter, a bad defender, and he had some pop and there was nothing wrong with that the Jays had no other options. On the other hand going forward things could be much different. </span><br />
<br />
Blue Jays No. 1 prospect Travis d'Arnaud is inching ever so closely to the majors and being that he is playing in the hitter friendly PCL, he could be looking for a call up very soon. Once up it could be very hard to send him down, he is a better hitter than J.P, he has better defensive skills, and he could even hit more home runs. Granted J.P. has the major league experience, but Travis is a force to be reckoned with and will surely let make the Jays the owners of a nice problem to have.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b>.P. Arencibia isn't a terrible player, but he isn't as good as his 87 RBIs make him out to be. He could easily improve both his home run totals and OBP in 2012, but with his current skill set it is unlikely he ever becomes a star. However the Blue jays are still only paying Arencibia the league minimum salary to be a full time starting catcher, which isn't a half bad deal. JP is what he is and I don't see his skill set improving a whole lot, but that's not to say that he can't be a solid starting catcher.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 1.8</b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-82275323031818495012012-03-25T19:43:00.003-07:002012-03-25T20:29:06.807-07:00How Not to Fulfill the Prophecy<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjurdBVOnflXxVwLBIm0UUvubeOz_lsmsmkbtS4kchBFgUlyPFTBJlKq3yRhPxMyQcMYAosmSDHNbAJfPNzU0poPf9PTkbdXQwMrBK3UuTCzm0t6b7z65r6j5LD5VovMDYdrtfH8zdFzV8/s1600/Snider+AP+Photo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjurdBVOnflXxVwLBIm0UUvubeOz_lsmsmkbtS4kchBFgUlyPFTBJlKq3yRhPxMyQcMYAosmSDHNbAJfPNzU0poPf9PTkbdXQwMrBK3UuTCzm0t6b7z65r6j5LD5VovMDYdrtfH8zdFzV8/s320/Snider+AP+Photo.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Snider sliding his way to Vegas</i><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Photo courtesy of </span><a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/0dyX6KT5Mm91C?__site=daylife&q=Travis+Snider" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Daylife</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> via </span><a href="http://www.daylife.com/photo/0dyX6KT5Mm91C?__site=daylife&q=Travis+Snider" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">AP Photo</span></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>I like Alex Anthopoulos, I think he's a great mind and has done great things to turn this club around from where it was going three years ago. Throughout his process his often stated prophecy has been to have 'All-Stars at every position' and that is a concept that I'm sure everyone can agree with.<br />
<br />
He has made great efforts to fulfill said goal by acquiring players like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobyu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yunel Escobar</a></strong>, Brett Lawrire, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong> some of which have already become what was expected of them. However in recent execution of the same goal Anthopoulos and the Jays decided to demote <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Travis Snider</a></strong> to AAA, presumably in favour of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thameer01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eric Thames</a></strong> in LF thereby hindering Anthopoulos' great vision.<br />
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I agree with most of what Anthopoulos has done and I'm guessing that I will continue to do so with his moves in the future. However the one thing I'll never understand is his constant misuse of Snider's presumed abilities. Last year I didn't agree with Snider's demotion, but I gave Anthopoulos the benefit of a doubt when he said that Snider needed to 'work on his swing'. This time around again, I disagree with the Jays' handling of Travis, but at this point I really don't understand what could possibly be gained from playing Thames rather than Snider.<br />
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As I previously mentioned Anthopoulos has said that he wants an All-Star at every position and I fail to see how Thames gives them that chance. In his 3 years in the Blue Jays minor leagues he was never put on any Blue Jays Top 10 list be it from Baseball America, Keith Law, or Kevin Goldstein, whereas Snider was atop each and every list a multitude of times.<br />
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In his <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12746" target="_blank">2011 Blue Jays Top 11 prospects</a> Kevin Goldstein said, "As of now this spot (No. 12) could be low, because [Eric Thames] could be a solid everyday, corner outfielder." This same sentiment seems to be similar to that of many other prospect mavens, but I fail to see how in that sentence or any other evaluation of Eric Thames it expresses that he could be an All-Star. He was never in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects and he broke in to the majors at 24, older than the average All-Star would have. Furthermore even when Thames did break into the majors he didn't show any indication that he had future All-Star potential.<br />
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As evidenced by his wRC+, Thames was 8% better than the average MLB hitter, but with terribly below average defense. This resulted in a good, but not All-Star potential-esque 0.9 fWAR. If you take that number and pro rate it over 600 plate appearances it would still only be 1.4 WAR. From there if you really believe Thames could be that much better, you could raise the production by 50% and get to a 2.1 WAR. That looks awfully small when you contrast that with the approximate 4.0+ WAR that it takes to be an All-Star.<br />
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To obtain that level of excellence Thames would have to perform 185% better than he did in 2011 over 600 plate appearances. Meaning that if you assume that his fielding and baserunning doesn't change he would have to hit as good as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grandcu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Curtis Granderson</a></strong> did last year to be an All-Star. Then even if you want to assume that Thames becomes average defensively in LF he would have to hit as good as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gonzaca01,gonzal014car,gonzal012car,gonzal008car,gonzal005car&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carlos Gonzalez</a></strong> did last year.<br />
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Snider, being the above average defender would still have to hit to a similar level, but the underlying point is that Snider has the potential to do so. Scouts have seen it in him, they saw it coming out of the draft, they saw it in his rookie season, and they even saw it last year.<br />
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Snider was the frickin' 6th best prospect in baseball at one point, Thames has been criticized every step of the way. Thames performed well last year when called up at age 24, but Snider performed similarly in past years at a younger age.<br />
<br />
Do you think that if given the chance the White Sox would send <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Adam Dunn</a></strong> down to AAA because he 'didn't perform well enough' in 2011. No they would and will continue to play him, not only because he is owed a lot of money, but he has shown that he is a good ball player and just had a bad year. Travis may not be as distinguished a ball player as Dunn, but he did hit to around a league average level in his time in the majors with the potential for much more.<br />
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Thames may give the Jays a better chance at the playoffs in 2012, but Snider gives them a chance at that 'All-Stars at every position dream' as well as a shot at a World Series. I don't know about you, but I'm a patient fan and if winning a World Series or even a playoff series for that matter means waiting, I will. I'd rather that than watch the Jays go all in on one playoff run.<br />
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Anthopoulos has always said that his goal is create dynasty not a playoff team, which is why I really don't understand this move. Snider has shown what he can do in AAA, but hasn't been given the chance to do the same in the majors (Thanks Cito!). AA wants a team that can win and win for a while and I fail to see how playing Thames over Snider in a rebuilding year gives the Jays the best chance to do that. Thames has shown us just about the peak of his production, Snider still has room to grow.<br />
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Of course Snider could still turn in to that bust player, but at the very least give him the chance to fail just as many have been given before him. It would be terrible to see Snider leave and be the player he could always be for another team, now is the time to make the right choice #FreeSnider.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://BaseballAmerica.com/">Baseball America</a> , <a href="http://BaseballProspectus.com/">Baseball Prospectus</a>, <a href="http://ESPN.com/">ESPN</a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg97v3MR3bJ3Yl5XOpLc73l5_nU_Ri67k5yEPOy5sAMdx__3szt1DNtaIO9IkFexeN0r9tFX6d1PCzf4_al_6LLeCxbYjTB0jGIFtJYIKqRgjfRtQnSK4HkPzEAkdym7Fl4z7su-eCsp_4/s1600/Picture+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg97v3MR3bJ3Yl5XOpLc73l5_nU_Ri67k5yEPOy5sAMdx__3szt1DNtaIO9IkFexeN0r9tFX6d1PCzf4_al_6LLeCxbYjTB0jGIFtJYIKqRgjfRtQnSK4HkPzEAkdym7Fl4z7su-eCsp_4/s400/Picture+5.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photos Courtesy of <a href="http://Daylife.com/" target="_blank">DayLIfe</a> via <a href="http://www.pictures.reuters.com/c/C.aspx?VP=XSpecific_REU.HomePageSpotlight_VPage" target="_blank">Reuters Pictures</a> and <a href="http://www.apimages.com/" target="_blank">AP Photo</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table><i>Projecting Performance is a series outlining each position of the Blue Jays roster with my thoughts on who should play the position and how well I expect them to perform for the 2012 season. The Starting Rotation piece is <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/03/projecting-performance-starting.html" target="_blank">already posted</a> and the Infield post will come in subsequent weeks. </i><br />
<i><br />
</i><br />
<div>In 2011 the Blue Jays had quite a few different players patrolling the outfield, some individuals worse than others *cough* <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/patteco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Corey Patterson</a></strong> *cough*, but in the end it ended up being okay. To start the year they may have had <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Rajai Davis</a></strong> pencilled in as a starter, and they may have given a 31 year old Corey Patterson 341 plate appearances (Yes, that many), but as the year wore on things became somewhat clearer.<br />
<br />
For one there is really no chance that Bautista ever goes back to 3B with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Lawrie</a></strong> now patrolling the hot corner and there's little to no chance that Rajai Davis is the starting CF for the Blue Jays as they now have their center fielder for the time being in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong>. It may not be the strongest outfield having major questions with Colby Rasmus' bat as well as with who will take hold of the starting LF spot, but there's no question that it is an outfield with upside.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><b>Jose Bautista</b><br />
You would think starting the post off with the current Blue Jays superstar would be easy, wouldn't you? I mean how much could there be to talk about with a guy who has hit 18 more home runs than anyone else in the MLB over the past two years and has the league lead in fWAR over that same time period. The answer could be quite a bit actually.<br />
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Last year the questions about Bautista revolved around whether he could sustain the production he had in his 2010 season after having been a bench player the whole rest of his career. This year a question that doesn't seem to be getting any publicity is how long can <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautis005jos&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong> sustain his current production.<br />
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Sure his tools are not too conducive to the affects of aging, but he is beginning to get past his prime. He may not fall off a cliff ala Cecil Fielder, but he should at least be regressing away from the 8.3 fWAR in 2011, shouldn't he? There may not be any true statistical evidence that suggests he would be worse in 2012 than he was in 2011, but it is likely that his fielding will get worse as he ages as well as his speed, which will likely gradually effect Bautista's game.<br />
<br />
Of course I'm mostly playing devil's advocate here because with Bautista there really isn't too much question. He was questioned in 2010 and he proved to be better in 2011.<br />
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<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Jose Bautista has been gift from the heavens for the Blue Jays. Without him the Jays likely wouldn't have the Thames/Snider LF problem, but playoff hopes would also be a distant memory. With that said Bautista is a great player, one of the best in the game right now, but he is beginning to age past his prime and his best years should thoretically be behind him. I say theoretically because really who knows with Bautista. No one predicted he would lead the league in home runs in 2010 and no one predicted he would actually be better in 2011. With that said I expect some regression back to his 2010 production, but nonetheless he is still very good.<br />
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<b>WAR Prediction: 6.8</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><b>Colby Rasmus</b><br />
Last year Colby had a lot of issues. With coaching, with hitting, with adjusting. Because of these perceived issues and the fact that Rasmus had an almost sub .200 OBP (among other things) in his time with the Jays has some of the common fans shunning him and his supposed "lackadaisical" attitude. On the other hand as evidenced by the poll on this site, many of you think Rasmus will in a sense return to form in 2012. I tend to think the same.<br />
<br />
As is with many of the Blue Jays players he has the talent, just didn't have the production, well in 2011 at least. However in 2010 he put up the 3rd highest wOBA among center fielders and hit 23 home runs all at the ripe ole age of 24. Over at <a href="http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/02/08/fixing-colby-rasmus-and-a-better-understanding-of-babip/" target="_blank">Getting Blanked</a> Dustin Parkes did point out a couple flaws in Rasmus' game, but they seemed to be mainly mechanical and nothing that couldn't be too hard to fix. Especially if you believe that his dad was creating problems in St. Louis, because Colby did recently <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/06/colby-rasmus-trying-to-keep-his-father-out-of-his-game/" target="_blank">state</a> that he was trying to have less of his dad's influence in the training process.<br />
<br />
The problem then with Colby Rasmus would seem to be that there is still a relatively large chance that he doesn't live up to expectations. In some sense he is unlike Snider because he has somewhat of a track record of success, but in the entire scheme of things they really aren't that different. Snider hasn't hit in the majors and therefore has a lot to prove, but he has a long track record of success at pretty much every level of the minors. Colby has hit in the majors, but it was two years ago and last year he had the 2nd worst wOBA among center fielders in the MLB meaning he is also going to have a lot to prove in 2012.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Yes, Colby Rasmus has talent and yes he has transformed talent in to production in the big leagues. As I said before Parkes pointed out a few key flaws in Rasmus' swing, even if he has the talent it doen't mean it will necesarily translate into production until his swing, among other things, is fixed. As well in terms of obtaining a higher WAR it is dependent on his defensive stats. He more than passes the eye test, but the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9893&position=OF#fielding" target="_blank">advanced defensive metrics</a>, which can be unreliable, don't seem to like him too much. Despite all that, like you readers, Colby is one player who I'm fairly confident of in 2012.<br />
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<b>WAR Prediction: 3.1</b><br />
<br />
<b>Travis Snider</b><br />
Of all the high upside players the Blue Jays have on their current roster, Snider could be the cream of the crop. He's a former No. 6 overall prospect as according to <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html" target="_blank">Baseball America</a> and a guy who Dan Szymborski lists in his "Finding the Next Bautista" <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7712943/searching-next-jose-bautista-bottom-espn-top-500-players-mlb" target="_blank">article</a> (Insider Req'd). Like many Jays, he has the talent, now its time for the production.<br />
<br />
People often talk about how he hasn't produced in the majors, but when you look at it he really hasn't been given the chance. Whether it was being benched by Gaston or being demoted to AAA, both situations have prevented Snider from ever being given more than 320 plate appearances in a single season. On the flipside of things, Snider has been given what seems to be a substantial No. of plate appearances with a total of 877 over the past four years. Though as<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"> I expressed in my </span><a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/02/curious-case-of-travis-snider.html" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Snider post</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"> about a month ago, when you compare the playing time Snider was given to that of other former top outfield prospects you find that Snider was given </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">the third least number of plate appearances in the first three years of the player's career of any top 20 outfield prospects in the past decade</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">.</span><br />
<br />
That right there is why, in my opinion, Snider needs to be given the piece of mind that he has the LF job. The real time to do that was last year when the Jays were farther away from contention and when the alternative was a 31 year old Corey Patterson. Now the Jays obviously have another young outfielder in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thameer01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eric Thames</a></strong>, but if you ask just about any talent evaluator they will tell you Snider has the upside. He may not be better in 2011, but the upside is undeniable.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
On seemingly every chance he has, Anthopoulos continually states that he is trying to build sustainable success. The key to sustainable success and something Anthopoulos himsel<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">f has mentioned is having All-Stars at every position. To create the most likely chance of that happening, one player needs to be playing, that player is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Travis Snider</a></strong>. It seems so clich</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><em style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">é</span></em></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"> to say, but really what Snider needs the most is playing time. He has shown he can hit in the minors, but really hasn't been given a shot in the majors. Given playing time I'd expect Snider to produce better than his 2010 season, but not at an All-Star level, just yet. All this is exactly why I hope for Snider to be the Opening Day left fielder, unfortunately I don't see it happening in 2012, which is the reasoning for my lower WAR prediction. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>WAR Prediction: 1.0</b></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br />
</b></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Eric Thames</b></span><br />
Thus far through Spring Training it has seemed that publicly the Blue Jays favour Eric Thames, with Anthopoulos having <a href="http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2012/03/14/anthopoulos-speaks-part-two-eric-thames/" target="_blank">said</a> that "Eric [was] the frontrunner going in" and on multiple occasions having referenced what Thames did in 2011 as reason for him starting in 2012. At times I really don't understand this infatuation with Eric Thames. Maybe it's the fact that Farrell decided to hit in him in the No. 2 spot last year or just because he looked like a young <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=riverju01,rivera001jua&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Juan Rivera</a></strong> in left field, but I don't really like what Thames has to offer.<br />
<br />
He was a slightly above league average hitter in 2/3 of a season in 2011, but he was also god awful defender in left field, which resulted in a 0.9 fWAR. Seemingly the only advantage he has over Snider is that he has performed better in his major league time, but even that isn't entirely true. In less playing time in 2010 Travis Snider actually outdid Thames' 2011 season and at the ripe age of 22 as well.<br />
<br />
Beyond that on TSN Radio, Keith Law noted that, "Thames is a mistake hitter," and in a ESPN Chat he stated that, "Thames has a part-timer ceiling." For these reasons and many more it really seems to me that 2011 could be the highest level that he ever performs at. I know he supposedly has some revamped approach and he was the hype of the Blue Jays blogosphere when <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/1/11/2699713/take-a-look-at-eric-thames-arms" target="_blank">this picture</a> was released, but for whatever reason I don't buy it. Assuming that he doesn't progress much in 2012, he really isn't the type of player that take you to the playoffs in the AL East.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Thames was not some fantastic hitter in 2011 and I don't buy it that he will somehow blossom in 2012. Nonetheless it seems to my dismay that the Jays will give him the starting LF spot. I don't think it's the right decision and I'd bet they will regret it down the road when prospects are graduating and there is no more time for the former top prospect, Travis Snider, to try to become what scouts predicted four years ago. In spite of that I don't expect Thames to be terrible and I'll guess he goes back to roughly the same production as in 201, only pro-rated over 600 PA.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction</b>: <b>1.4</b><br />
<br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;"><i>Look for Part 3 of Projecting Performance, which will be on the Blue Jays Infield, the post will likely come out sometime later this week. </i></span></i><br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;"><i><br />
</i></span></i><br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;"><i>PS: I know I've been on a bit of a hiatus in the past couple of weeks, but I have quite a few article ideas before the season starts so you can expect those pretty soon.</i></span></i><br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;"><i><br />
</i></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://espn.com/" target="_blank">ESPN</a>, <a href="http://tsn.ca/" target="_blank">TSN</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-23651431118244657962012-03-10T18:58:00.013-08:002012-04-09T13:46:40.096-07:00Projecting Performance: Starting Rotation<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbhWXlfB4A1nDmW0qNTLR5N6Q0n-dDLQLcYPDwa0Dmw8dF4wC4ZeV6OhhOfAvwPs65AIV_sDwxfOZ4jBj9w2dbtA15Yi8YDqgRN5vXEqurDKO9Y0IUMYb9JTNIQKvObQq_wqE8BYBbCI0/s1600/Picture+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbhWXlfB4A1nDmW0qNTLR5N6Q0n-dDLQLcYPDwa0Dmw8dF4wC4ZeV6OhhOfAvwPs65AIV_sDwxfOZ4jBj9w2dbtA15Yi8YDqgRN5vXEqurDKO9Y0IUMYb9JTNIQKvObQq_wqE8BYBbCI0/s320/Picture+3.png" width="293" /></a></div><i>Projecting Performance will be a series outlining each position of the Blue Jays roster with my thoughts on who should play the position and how well I expect them to perform for the 2012 season. Up first is the Starting Rotation, with the Infield and Outfield coming in subsequent weeks.</i><br />
<br />
In 2011 the Blue Jays starting rotation definitely wasn't a strong point. It saw twelve different pitchers start a game and 20 starts given to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesjo03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jo-Jo Reyes</a></strong> (Yes, that Jo-Jo Reyes). Those 20 starts ranking third most among Blue Jays pitchers (Ugh). Going forward things look much brighter. As it looks to be shaping up so far, rather than having innings whisked away by giving starts to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millsbr02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brad Mills</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=perez-004lui,perezlu01,perez-006lui,perez-008lui,perez-009lui&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Luis Perez</a></strong>, the Jays look to be transferring those starts to higher upside arms in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Dustin McGowan</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarhe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Henderson Alvarez</a></strong>. Beyond that the Jays have quite a few players in the minors that could be pushing for starts in 2012 including <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=hutchi002and" target="_blank">Drew Hutchison</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=mcguir005wil" target="_blank">Deck McGuire</a></strong>, and maybe even <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=jenkin003cha,jenkin004cha&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Chad Jenkins</a></strong>. Without further ado the player breakdowns.<br />
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<b>Ricky Romero</b><br />
Between 2009 and 2011 each year the Jays had a new Opening Day starter. In 2009 it was <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Roy Halladay</a></strong>, in 2010 it was <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Shaun Marcum</a></strong> and in 2011 it was undoubtedly <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerri01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ricky Romero</a></strong>. With that said it looks like for the first time in three years there will be a similar face starting come Opening Day and that would be Ricky Romero.<br />
<br />
Each of the last three years Romero has been consistently improving, culminating in a 2011 season that saw him pitch to 2.92 ERA, but only a 2.9 fWAR. Though it was encouraging that Romero pitched deeper in to games and ultimately got to 225 IP, there was a couple other factors that diminished his perceived performance.<br />
<br />
For starters it is true, Romero did have a 2.92 ERA in 2011, but numbers like his 4.20 FIP or 3.80 xFIP or 3.78 SIERA suggest that things may be different in 2012. The likely reasoning behind this being that for one Romero's home run rate jumped back up to a 1.04 HR/9, which is significantly higher than the 0.64 number that he posted in 2010. As well, though Romero's .242 BABIP may suggest otherwise, Romero actually seemed lucky in 2011. The reason being that in 2011 Romero's LOB% was much higher than his career average at 79.2% and his LD% was much lower at 14.2%.<br />
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<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Ricky Romero did have a fantastic year in 2011 in terms of ERA, but not so fine in terms of his peripheral stats. Despite the possibly luck driven 2011 I actually expect Ricky's peripherals to be better in 2012, but it looks like the ERA will come back down to earth.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 3.0</b><br />
<br />
<b>Brandon Morrow</b><br />
In 2011 <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a></strong> was Brandon Morrow. He struck out a ton of batters, he walked a ton of batters, and he produced a xFIP and SIERA that was much lower than his ERA. Numbers like his 3.53 xFIP suggest his ERA should be much lower, but he has yet to have produced to that level. It isn't a question of the stuff either, Brandon Morrow has some of the better stuff in the league, it just hasn't translated to enough big league production.<br />
<br />
Steve Slowinski of FanGraphs suggested that Morrow may need to <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brandon-morrows-left-on-base-blues/" target="_blank">add another pitch to become more effective</a>. Could that pitch be the cutter that Morrow <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/2Morrow23/status/115623530426667008" target="_blank">added</a> late last season? Its quite possibly could, because the cutter is known as a ground ball inducing pitch, which in the past has been precisely Morrow's problem.<br />
<br />
After he added it late last season, the first couple of games whilst using it didn't turn out so well, but in the last three Morrow finished strong. Not that this means too much because it is far too small a sample to really make anything of it. With that said it will surely be interesting to see how Morrow does with a developing cutter in 2012.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Morrow is always cited as a breakout candidate and this may finally be his year. He is developing that third pitch and he's going in to his third full year as a starter. His peripheral stats don't look to get too much better in 2012, but it seems like this is the year his ERA may actualize.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 3.5</b><br />
<br />
<b>Brett Cecil</b><br />
Cecil seems to me to be one of the most peculiar players at this year's Spring Training. At the start of Spring Training, most people (including myself) seemed to think that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cecilbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Cecil</a></strong> had the No. 3 starter spot locked down. Now upon further investigation I'm having second thoughts.<br />
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Yes, Brett Cecil did have a 2.6 fWAR season in 2010, but since then he has been lack luster to say the least. He dropped 1 MPH off his fastball last year, and in his first Spring Training start he was <a href="https://twitter.com/?tw_e=screenname&tw_i=177824532223102978&tw_p=tweetembed#!/gregorMLB/status/177824532223102978" target="_blank">reported</a> to have topped out at 88 MPH and averaging around 87 MPH.<br />
<br />
For most guys losing that much in velocity is detrimental and to a guy like Cecil is could be career ending, that is assuming its permanent, which it's likely not. Nonetheless the drop in fastball velocity is discouraging for both us fans and maybe even for Farrell too as Stoeten inferences at <a href="http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2012/03/10/morosi-aa-leaves-phils-game-once-blanton-exits/" target="_blank">Drunk Jays Fans</a>.<br />
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What's most discouraging about Cecil is the fact that there was nothing really in 2011 that makes me think he should improve in 2012. Rather than returning to 2010 form, in 2011 Cecil seemed to regress back to his 2009 season, which as short as that 2009 season was it was not very good.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Unless Brett Cecil gains back some fastball velocity, improves on his offspeed pitches, or becomes <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Bruce Chen</a></strong> 2.0, it seems doubtful that he'll get back to a level where he could be a No. 3 starter. Initially I and what seems like many others thought Cecil would simply return with some new found form after the whole weight loss story, but after some number crunching it showed that supposedly Cecil was pretty lucky in 2011 and still wasn't very good. That is never a good combination.<br />
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<b>WAR Prediction: 0.5</b><br />
<br />
<b>Henderson Alvarez</b><br />
There's not too much to say about Henderson Alvarez from a statistical standpoint. He started 2011 in HiA Dunedin and astonishingly climbed all the way to the big leagues before the September roster expansion. Once in the big leagues he seemed to perform much better than anyone had expected, but one does have to be aware of the relatively small sample size.<br />
<br />
Going forward it is likely that Alvarez's insane 5.00 K/BB ratio comes back down to earth because he doesn't strike out enough guys for that to be sustainable. However it doesn't mean that he won't be able to perform. In fact Kevin Goldstein <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/Kevin_Goldstein/status/119952295558529024" target="_blank">said</a> that, "Henderson Alvarez's ceiling is close to what Ricky Romero is today."<br />
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This is obviously quite encouraging for Alvarez's case because after a pretty terrible 2010 season Alvarez was forced to repeat HiA Dunedin and his prospect status seemed to have been permanently tarnished.<br />
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<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
There isn't nearly enough statistical evidence on Henderson Alvarez to do any real analysis. With that said considering what Kevin Goldstein said to be true, it isn't unreasonable to expect at least No. 4 starter like production with the potential for much more, not only in 2012, but beyond.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 2.1</b><br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>Dustin McGowan</b><br />
Dustin is the miracle pitcher, the man who no one thought would ever return. All the odds were against him, but he battled through it and started his first MLB game in 3 years on September 6th. The narrative is with him, but now McGowan will once again have to face adversity. This adversity being the question of whether he'll actually be able to pitch. He didn't do to well in terms of stats at the end of 2011, but then again it was less than 25 innings.<br />
<br />
The reports out of spring seem strong so far. After McGowan's first start today. Gregor Chisholm <a href="http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2012/03/10/sounds-like-mcgowan-looked-good/" target="_blank">reported</a> that he reached 96 MPH and was averaging around 93, which would be about where he was velocity wise, back in 2008. Mike Wilner also <a href="http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2012/03/10/very-impressive/" target="_blank">pointed out</a> that, "[McGowan's] fastball had good life and the slider had great bite."<br />
<br />
All of this is great in theory, but McGowan still has yet to consistently produce at the major league level since coming back from injury. He seems to have the same stuff, and on the FAN 590's JaysTalk Wilner noted that he felt "just like the other pitchers" in the sense that he wasn't be held back at all. As well he'll surely be given plenty of chances as he is essentially the Jo-Jo Reyes of 2012 being a starting pitcher who is out of options, which almost makes him a shoe in for a rotation spot. Just hopefully he doesn't take on Reyes' performance level as well.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
I'm not really sure what to expect out of Dustin McGowan in 2012. He seems to be relatively similar in terms of stuff as he was in 2008. The only problem is he has yet to show that he can sustain that stuff over the course of a full game or over the course of the season. That right there could really be his Kryptonite this season, but it could also not matter at all. The only way to see what McGowan truly is will be innings and time and that won't come until the regular season.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 1.5 (Only because of a possible innings limit)</b><br />
<b>Kyle Drabek</b><br />
Last, but certainly not least is the former top prospect <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drabeky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Drabek</a></strong>. In a lot of ways Drabek is like Henderson Alvarez, but also different at the same time. They are similar in the fact that both have under 90 innings of MLB pitching experience and both have a possible No. 2 starter ceiling, but are polar opposites in terms of their production in their first taste of the big leagues. As stated before Alvarez was fantastic last year and well Drabek kind of wasn't.<br />
<br />
However both have the same relative pitching ceiling, which why <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/02/my-love-and-plea-for-kyle-drabek.html" target="_blank">I thought</a> both should have a chance to prove themselves in 2012. Obviously Alvarez has the edge having performed well in his big league time, but Drabek hasn't been terrible in Spring Training either and at this point I'd rather see him in the rotation that Cecil.<br />
<br />
The reason being that at this point Cecil's ceiling appears to be a No. 3 starter at best and at this point he may not even reach it. Where as this year Drabek could be a serviceable No. 5 with upside for so much more.<br />
<br />
<b>The Verdict:</b><br />
Unfortunately like Alvarez, with Drabek there isn't enough statistical evidence to do any real analysis. Instead we have to turn to the scouting reports, which are unsurprising high on Kyle Drabek. He still has the talent, he still has the stuff, he just needs the command, which I don't expect to come this year. Though with some repetition and major league innings it could very well be Drabek's year come 2013. In my opinion he just needs to be given a chance.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR Prediction: 0.8 (Only because I don't think he will get the chance)</b><br />
<br />
<i>Look for Part 2 of Projecting Performance, which will be on the Blue Jays Outfield, the post will likely come out sometime later this week. </i><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a><br />
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</script></div><div style="text-align: left;"><a class="twitter-share-button" data-via="HouseOfTheBB" href="https://twitter.com/share">Tweet</a></div></div></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-79891735636996578472012-02-29T15:50:00.000-08:002012-02-29T15:50:24.385-08:00Extra Wild Card in 2012: What it Does and Doesn't Mean to the Blue Jays<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiggUjbHH9c32UhShAxMVSRedWgWfZFi_cKacyjR_egxmDsbf-1tYSK7DS06qMpHQQPLa78RlKKkX5xJR8MqwcdlXFT0BDgOWjvaSKmofjYOhEGRVSUQJjxYGJ1n3XgjcjgzebOIyeDIe0/s1600/playoff+ticket.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiggUjbHH9c32UhShAxMVSRedWgWfZFi_cKacyjR_egxmDsbf-1tYSK7DS06qMpHQQPLa78RlKKkX5xJR8MqwcdlXFT0BDgOWjvaSKmofjYOhEGRVSUQJjxYGJ1n3XgjcjgzebOIyeDIe0/s320/playoff+ticket.png" width="320" /></a></div>It was recently <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-to-expand-playoffs-beginning-in-2012-postseason-022912">reported</a> by Ken Rosenthal that an extra wild card team is all but done in being added for the 2012 MLB season. My initial reactions were something along the lines of oh my god and were not unlike the opening of that first present on Christmas morning as a child. You feel a sense of excitement and that rush of new things until you realize you just opened that present from Grandma with only socks inside, thanks Grandma. In this case it seems somewhat similar. On one hand you have the right to be pretty damn excited that your favourite team is one step closer to the playoffs, but on the other hand in the grand scheme of things does it really make that much of a difference.<br />
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Of course the adding of an extra wild card spot for 2012 is a fantastic addition to the Blue Jays playoff chances, but it seems like some are still forgetting about the other potentially unsurpassable bumps in the road. For one the Blue Jays play in the always tough AL East, but also in the incredibly difficult American League and are the Blue Jays really ready to take that next step, even with an extra wild card team.<br />
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In the East you always have the big three in the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Rays. In the Central you have the now Fielderful Tigers. Last, but not least in the West you have the Rangers and the now playoff ready Angels.<br />
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In the old scenario it looked almost impossible for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs in 2012 without significant leaps and bounds taken by multiple players on the team because the Jays would have had to pass two of the beasts of the east. Now in the new scenario it looks more likely that they will have make the playoffs but what you have to realize is that instead of having to overtake two of the beasts in the east, the Jays will have to overcome one, but also likely one of the Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels and they aren't half bad either.<br />
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The Rangers, well they're the Rangers, not only have they been the American League representative in the World Series for back to back years, but they also got arguably the best pitcher on the market outside of C.C. Sabathia in Yu Darvish. The Angels, usually an afterthought in wild card consideration, got not even arguably but instead thee best hitter on the market in Albert Pujols and then the second best free agent pitcher in C.J. Wilson. As well what many don't seem to realize the Angels are the same team that finished only 5 games out of a wild card spot.<br />
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Looking further into it <a href="http://www.rlyw.net/">Replacement Level Yankees</a> who run the CAIRO projection system ran a couple of projected standings using both their system as well as that of Tom Tango who runs the Marcel system. Using the CAIRO projection system they <a href="http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/cairo_2012_v0.5_and_more_somewhat_useless_projected_standings">projected</a> the Blue Jays 2012 record to be 78-84 and gave them a 4.1% chance of making the playoffs, which includes a 2.6% increase from the added second wild card spot. In another post using the Marcel projection system they <a href="http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/still_too_early_2012_mlb_standings_projection">projected</a> the Jays record to be the exact same as 2011 at 81-81 and gave them a 16.7% chance of making the playoffs, which includes a pretty substantial 6.8% jump from the added wild card spot.<br />
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These two numbers may seem at the very least somewhat promising, but the two posts also include a couple playoff chance percentages for some of the competitors. CAIRO puts the playoff chances of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays at anywhere from 64.4% for the Rays to a whopping 84.8% for the Yanks and Marcel similarly has the percentages at anywhere from 57.1% for the Rays to 76.0% for the Yankees. At the lowest point the next best team in the AL East, the Rays, still has a 3 times better chance to make the playoffs than your team and mine the Toronto Blue Jays.<br />
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To beat the next best team in the CAIRO projected wild card standings the Jays would have to somehow gain another 13 wins beyond CAIRO's Blue Jays <a href="http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/cairo_2012_v0.5_and_more_somewhat_useless_projected_standings">projections</a>, which aren't too pessimistic. Even to beat the next best team in the Marcel projected standings, which have the Blue Jays being much better in 2012 than the CAIRO system, the Jays would somehow need to muster up another 6 wins.<br />
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That number may not seem like a whole lot, but for the Jays to increase their win total by 6 wins that would have to mean something along the lines of Colby Rasmus returning to 2010 form and Travis Snider finally becoming what he could now realistically be. That is a lot to happen and even that's no guarantee that the Jays would make the playoffs because anything could happen with the other three teams fighting for the two playoff spots.<br />
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In the end the reality is with a still improving team and an unbalanced schedule for the 2012 season it doesn't seem like the added wild card spot will give the Jays the extra push they need. It may make you and I as fans feel better about the Blue Jays and it will surely sell some extra tickets. But unfortunately it isn't as if the Jays only have to overcome one one great team instead of two, all that seems to have happened is that one less beast of the east has been transferred to having to beat one of the best in the west.<br />
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This doesn't mean you shouldn't be excited for the 2012 season because the Jays will still have a very exciting team and a player with 80 grade watchability in Brett Lawrie. If anything it should just make you more excited for what is to come in 2013 and beyond when the Blue Jays sustained success really figures to begin. And if you're really a believer be excited for 2012 and really think the Jays can make the playoffs don't let me or any other blogger suppress that, because hey stranger things have happened.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://www.rlyw.net/">Replacement Level Yankees</a>, <a href="http://foxsports.com/">FOX Sports</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-14983505184106741352012-02-27T17:44:00.004-08:002012-02-27T19:40:15.342-08:00My Plea for Kyle Drabek<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBqyz_dKOkKNPxFT6UnckESgrRd52eH3jKD4J0o5dA_5bTedvRHguPnv-rsKF9fnkgCZSxyVnCSs-F6WNVYdHXNonKNF0UWgpzlqAWQpuX5TVI_xs7LQRM_6_HeW629s1pWp__YxW2Qwg/s1600/Picture+23.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBqyz_dKOkKNPxFT6UnckESgrRd52eH3jKD4J0o5dA_5bTedvRHguPnv-rsKF9fnkgCZSxyVnCSs-F6WNVYdHXNonKNF0UWgpzlqAWQpuX5TVI_xs7LQRM_6_HeW629s1pWp__YxW2Qwg/s320/Picture+23.png" width="202" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Photo by </span><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/sillygwailo/5623411696/" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">sillygwailo</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;"> licensed under </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en_CA" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>It has come to my attention through the poll on this site and what seems to be the general opinion of Jays fans that of the four troubling players listed Drabek is the least likely to have a comeback season and I ask why? It may seems so long ago, but it has only been one year since <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drabeky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Drabek</a></strong> was the top prospect in the Blue Jays farm system and a shining star in the Blue Jays future plans. At that time Drabek ranked anywhere from No. 13 by <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=LawTop100Prospects1-25" target="_blank">Keith Law</a> to No. 29 by <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2011/2611328.html" target="_blank">Baseball America</a> on their respective top prospect lists.<br />
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Heading in to Spring Training in 2011, Drabek was the next big thing, the possible first fruition of the trade that sent former Blue Jays Ace <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Roy Halladay</a></strong> to the Phillies, and the first tangible major league talent from Alex Anthopoulos' regime as general manager. He was all but handed a rotation spot after the Jays traded <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Shaun Marcum</a></strong> to the Brewers and he seemed to be ready to take it.<br />
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Obviously we would later learn that Drabek would not turn in the best of seasons in 2011 and I don't think I need to paint the entire picture of just how bad Drabek really was. All I have to say is that in almost a consensus opinion the simple stats, advanced stats, and Pitch F/X information all agree on one thing, Kyle Drabek sucked.<br />
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At this point in the blog post I usually point out what Drabek did wrong and how he can improve and all that, but in this case Drabek's problem is pretty simple and the fact is that he just couldn't throw strikes. Drabek was putting pitches galore outside the zone and in fact at the time of his demotion in June Drabek had walked more batters than he had struck out and was the not so proud owner of the league's worst strikeout to walk ratio.<br />
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Proceeding his demotion to AAA Las Vegas in June things just got worse. Being sent to the band box that is Cashman Field and the very definition of a hitter's league in the PCL obviously didn't help, but even against a much worse level of competition Drabek did not perform as he was expected to. Because of a lack of AAA Pitch F/X data no one (unless they saw him) can really discern specifically whether he wasn't throwing strikes there either, but what one does know is that in AAA he held a relatively similar strikeout to walk ratio and that is in no way a good thing.<br />
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In spite of all that has happened, Drabek's failure in the majors and minors is not completely indicative of what he could do in 2012. In general it is true that numbers and statistics from previous years can be used as a predictor for future performance. The difference with Drabek is for one what he has done thus far is a smallish sample size and there is not enough previous data to rely on, for another as is often cited with another Blue Jay, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Travis Snider</a></strong>, Drabek is only 23 and going in to his sophomore season in the MLB.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvHoc1xCdijiryKiptG3odV_UJTYEcNhjVNcx5YaED7ytZlIyKNfwRFhgjAKIqBijZ0XbgNofXRxH7Dz73yoAmwEvxHRcIdiUnhm0-fXXFkZrMgfM_00ckgnmUyoQWSt0KZFQZkHSXluU/s1600/Picture+25.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvHoc1xCdijiryKiptG3odV_UJTYEcNhjVNcx5YaED7ytZlIyKNfwRFhgjAKIqBijZ0XbgNofXRxH7Dz73yoAmwEvxHRcIdiUnhm0-fXXFkZrMgfM_00ckgnmUyoQWSt0KZFQZkHSXluU/s1600/Picture+25.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Courtesy of <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/shidavidi">Shi Davidi on Twitter</a></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Yes he may have strugggled in 2011 and yes that is not a good thing to see out of a rookie, but a quick read of Shi Davidi's story on Drabek at <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/02/23/davidi_bluejays_kyledrabek_comeback/">Sportsnet.ca</a> seems to suggest to us that it may have been partially a mechanical issue with Drabek in 2011 and oddly enough I find it plausible to believe.<br />
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I may just be drinking the Spring Training story Kool-Aid in which every player is in the best shape of their lives, but looking at some 2011 footage of Drabek he seemed to me to be a little inconsistent in his mechanics and this article seemingly confirms that thought. In no way am I claiming to be a scout here, but if what Shi Davidi tells us is true then it could have been a big reason as to why Drabek looked like Tim Tebow on the mound.<br />
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Now with the Jays coaching staff addressing the issue, call me crazy, but maybe instead of being pushed into irrelevance, could Drabek surprise this year? He still seems to have the stuff that in 2010 <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4859884">Keith Law said</a> could make Drabek "a No. 2 or 3 starter", but is lacking the command and third pitch that <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=LawTop100Prospects1-25">Law said</a> he needed to improve on in 2011. The good thing is command can be taught and can be learned and it looks like it may come with further instruction, tweaking in pitch mechanics, and just more major league innings. The bad thing is it may not come this season.<br />
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With that said I'm not completely sure why I think Drabek will do well, but I do. He may no longer be the flavour of the month as that position seems to have been overtaken by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarhe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Henderson Alvarez</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Dustin McGowan</a></strong>, but that doesn't mean he won't be able to perform. As well as I'm sure you already know because its been said 1000 times, but the pitcher that got the Blue Jays Kyle Drabek in the first place, Roy Halladay, similarly had command problems early in his career and look what he became. Not to say that Drabek will become Halladay though, because that simply doesn't seem feasible, but don't give up on Drabek just yet.<br />
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I know that usually the arguments on this blog are fairly statistically based, but for whatever reason with Drabek I feel different. I feel like he has the potential to be what the scouting reports say rather than the major league statistics, I feel like he can overcome the two pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart. Nonetheless if you don't have the same feelings as I towards the great Drabek, then at least realize that Drabek has barely pitched for a season and we've already lost confidence in him? It isn't like he got significantly injured or lost a lot of fastball velocity, the stuff seems to be there he just needs to harness it.<br />
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In the end there isn't nearly enough statistical evidence to back up any opinion suggesting that Drabek's potential is completely gone, so why not wait and see. To my dismay it seems like Drabek won't get the call come Opening Day, but as happens with pitchers they get injured or pitch poorly and Drabek looks like he could be first on the list to replace, in other words the pitching version of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccoymi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Mike McCoy</a></strong> (Hopefully Drabek doesn't acquire quite as many Air Miles). Finally if you refuse to believe in anything I've said at least remember this, last season you didn't see any major prospect sites suggesting Drabek was a worse prospect than current Blue Jays Canadian phenom <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Lawrie</a></strong>, just saying. <br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://sportsnet.ca/">Sportsnet</a>, <a href="http://baseballamerica.com/">Baseball America</a>, <a href="http://espn.com/">ESPN</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-33801994992918445202012-02-15T20:16:00.000-08:002012-02-17T08:00:00.439-08:00Breaking Down Adam Lind<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/keithallison/5802283274/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Adam Lind (26) by Keith Allison, on Flickr"><img alt="Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Adam Lind (26)" height="300" src="http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2799/5802283274_549f55bbe9.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/keithallison/5802283274/" target="_blank">Keith Allison</a> licensed under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/deed.en_CA" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>If you have been on the site in the past couple of weeks you may have noticed the poll in the sidebar asking you fans which player you think will most likely have a bounce back season in 2012 with the options being <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Travis Snider</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindad01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Adam Lind</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drabeky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Drabek</a></strong>. As well you also may know a couple of weeks ago I <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/02/curious-case-of-travis-snider.html" target="_blank">mused about</a> Travis Snider and what the future may hold for such a peculiar player. To continue on in the list this week the post will go over Adam Lind and what the future may hold for him.<br />
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Before last year Adam Lind was the exact type of player both Blue Jays fans and fantasy baseball gurus alike expected to make a comeback performance. From a fantasy perspective that comeback performance was definitely prevalent with Lind having been among the leagues elite in terms of RBIs before his back injury that occurred in May, but on a hitting level did Lind really start the year strong?<br />
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His RBI total may make you think otherwise, but according to wRC+ Lind wasn't even an above average hitter in April. Instead he hit to a 99 wRC+ (average is 100) and was even below the likes of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/patteco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Corey Patterson</a></strong> (Ugh). The RBI total was instead a result of the fact that the hitter in front of Lind at that point, Jose Bautista, was the best hitter in the league and was getting on base more than 50% of the time. If I was in Lind's position, I bet even I could have gotten a few RBIs.<br />
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Once you look at the season as whole it really doesn't become any more impressive. Yes, Lind did up his home run total to 26, but he also he also produced a sub .300 OBP and an fWAR that ranked 4th last among qualified first basemen. As you can plainly see those are not good numbers and they probably don't warrant any praise. Instead all the 2011 season has done is make the 2009 season seem more of an outlier and the 2012 season that much more difficult to project.<br />
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For starters where does one lay the blame for the lack of production. Obviously Lind hasn't gotten back to the 35 home runs he hit in 2009, nor has he reached his .305 batting average, but most importantly Lind hasn't reached the .370 OBP and 8.9 BB% that he had in 2009. Since that wondrous year Lind hasn't mustered enough to get within 75 points of that OBP and his best walk rate is just a little more than half of his 2009 numbers.<br />
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What is the reason for this? A change in approach? Maybe. Poor hitting skills? Another possibility, but most interestingly though is that when looking at some of the Pitch F/X plate discipline stats on Lind's <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8027&position=DH/OF" target="_blank">FanGraphs page</a> one thing that stood out was Lind's <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/plate-discipline/" target="_blank">O-Swing%</a>. Last year his O-Swing% had a small uptick to 35.9%, which is roughly a couple percent above his 2010 stats and quite a bit above his 2009 ones and that is precisely where the concern lies.<br />
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In comparison, in 2009 Lind's O-Swing% was the lowest of his career and by a pretty wide margin. That year Lind managed to resist many outside pitches and put up a 27.9 O-Swing%, a number that is more than 5% off his career average. For the pitches Lind did swing at outside the strike zone, he made contact with over 3/4 of them and put up a percentage that is again much better than his career average. Additionally in 2011 Lind posted the lowest Zone% of his career at 46.9%, essentially meaning pitchers are giving Lind more pitches outside the zone, but as shown with his O-Swing% he is still swinging at the pitches, that is never a good thing. The graphics below give you a better representation.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2nXoHkk_zg_JcxB5k7qQ1EmI3KSDtMAN66mq_fJDbXLG0VnAKsoFVRIIIlnaUQKwQsgz_2xZ4hN8fx9y5VJftUpJPB0OJbrAfohUbGaQtNt7Eds-4FEPLX4u4_q-sqBPZJ9AuHoujizg/s1600/lind+2009+pitches.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2nXoHkk_zg_JcxB5k7qQ1EmI3KSDtMAN66mq_fJDbXLG0VnAKsoFVRIIIlnaUQKwQsgz_2xZ4hN8fx9y5VJftUpJPB0OJbrAfohUbGaQtNt7Eds-4FEPLX4u4_q-sqBPZJ9AuHoujizg/s320/lind+2009+pitches.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pitches Lind swung at in 2009</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrH55eDrbkWkx3L3ZYTLd0Nd058MXogmDd2AaltfLaJPZl3Hu-4DkhpKkNfdxidFXtkrUNkWkXfKZavs2XIYBxdApZynBN-1scuxbKBU1IOk5Ny51HoiwG3Le2lmpLWOe1dq9MuDcYwk/s1600/lind+2011+pitches.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrH55eDrbkWkx3L3ZYTLd0Nd058MXogmDd2AaltfLaJPZl3Hu-4DkhpKkNfdxidFXtkrUNkWkXfKZavs2XIYBxdApZynBN-1scuxbKBU1IOk5Ny51HoiwG3Le2lmpLWOe1dq9MuDcYwk/s320/lind+2011+pitches.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pitches Lind swung at in 201</td></tr>
</tbody></table>The difference does not seem to be too large at first glance, but if you really look at the two graphics you can see the change between 2009 and 2011. In the 2009 graphic the pitches are more concentrated on the middle with fewer swings outside the zone, while on the other hand in the 2011 graphic the pitches swing at are less concentrated in the middle and more are outside the zone. More than anything you can see how Lind's batting eye has changed be it a result of approach or regression, they both end the same.<br />
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Specifically one thing though that is noticeable in the statistics is Lind's consistent decrease in pitches per plate appearance. In 2009 Lind saw an average of 4.03 pitches per plate appearance or P/PA. In 2010 that same number dropped to 3.81 and in 2011 it was a lowly 3.54, not a good trend. What I believe to be the reasoning behind the drop is a clear change in first pitch approach. Through some Pitch F/X calculations it was found that in 2009 Lind swung at 15.2% of first pitches, in 2010 that number almost doubled to 29.2% and in 2011 it remained for the most part unchanged at 28.2%.<br />
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In 2009 when Lind got more pitches thrown to him he was able to have more success because he could wait for the pitch he wanted, but in 2011 seeing less pitches did not afford him that luxury. More than anything what all of this alludes to is most likely one of two things, either Lind has been told to swing more at pitches he likes or he simply lacks the batting eye that he had in 2009. I'm willing to bet the its a combination of the two based on some of his contact rates and swing percentages, but whatever the case it will effect Lind going forward.<br />
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If Lind has the same batting eye and approach in 2012 that he has had the past two years you likely won't see too much improvement. The batting average will presumably come up a little from where it was in 2011 because his BABIP suggests he was at the least somewhat unlucky, but beyond that I don't know how you can expect more. Some people may tell you that Adam Lind was hindered by his back injury and that he will easily bounce back to form in 2012, but in 2010 Lind had little to no injury problems and still sucked and this year his best hitting month came the month after he got back from his injury.<br />
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In order for Lind to truly get back to his peak season he will have to more of what he did in 2009. That would include swinging at less pitches outside the zone, waiting for his pitch, regaining some opposite field power and much more. Those changes would presumably be able to propel Lind to great heights, but with the 2009 season being the only one in which Lind excelled at all three of those areas it isn't looking good for 2012. <br />
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Despite the objective evidence I'm sure you will still see some believers, but I'm not one of them. I'm also not one to suggest the Jays should have signed Pujols or Fielder to replace Lind, but when a certain Torontonian *cough* Joey Votto *cough* comes on the trade market or to free agency I'd bet an improving Jays team takes a shot at him. Until then I'm guessing we will have to live with an underachieving bat at a prime offensive position, with our only hope the prospect of obtaining Votto and Farrell's realization that Lind is not a #3 or #4 hitter.<br />
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Stat Definitions: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/" target="_blank">FanGraphs Glossary</a><br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://texasleaguers.com/" target="_blank">Texas Leaguers</a>, <a href="http://espn.com/" target="_blank">ESPN</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-90134152346661111702012-02-09T20:04:00.000-08:002012-02-10T19:03:39.328-08:00The Anthopoulos Method<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKhvj2NqqoLNGW5yWGXZrLmjB0SQbwaMvUJ_kPiQYDGQPrntXge3EoZk7QKngQQNFEtKlaK7s_p84NmlILi9Y4-3IbEVbsb8KiQ7Cl1ZulG1mtl32E53WTKpHp_z3XAzzuaUmBnMjlkJ4/s1600/We+Want+You.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKhvj2NqqoLNGW5yWGXZrLmjB0SQbwaMvUJ_kPiQYDGQPrntXge3EoZk7QKngQQNFEtKlaK7s_p84NmlILi9Y4-3IbEVbsb8KiQ7Cl1ZulG1mtl32E53WTKpHp_z3XAzzuaUmBnMjlkJ4/s1600/We+Want+You.png" /></a></div>Today <a href="http://ESPN.com/">ESPN.com</a>'s Keith Law released his <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7547690/mlb-top-100-prospects-2012-mike-trout-bryce-harper-more" target="_blank">Top 100 Prospects List</a> (Insider Req'd) as well as his Top 10 by organization. The Top 100 included five Jays minor leaguers with one even ranking in the Top 10, but that isn't really what this post is about. Instead may I point you to the <a href="http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7547640/san-diego-padres-lead-keith-law-organizational-rankings-2012-mlb" target="_blank">farm system rankings</a> (Insider Req'd) that Law posted on <a href="http://ESPN.com/">ESPN.com</a> on Wednesday . In his post Law praised the Jays aggressiveness in the draft and international free agency and eventually ranked them at #3.<br />
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This ranking got me thinking because throughout the Ricciardi era the Blue Jays were never really considered to have a "good" farm system by any means. In fact the year before present GM Alex Anthopoulos took over J.P. Ricciardi had led the Jays to the #18 spot on Law's 2009 <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3848691" target="_blank">farm system rankings</a> and at #19 on Baseball America's <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/2009/267865.html" target="_blank">version</a>. In the few years since the overhaul AA has managed to bolt the Jays from middle of the pack to a top end with potential for more. Specifically Law states in his write up "They are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter."<br />
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In 2009 when Alex Anthopoulos took over as General Manager as the Blue Jays he had a bit of a head start for the farm system and that would be <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Roy Halladay</a></strong>. At the time Halladay did boast the 9th highest fWAR in baseball, but Anthopoulos was still limited in his destinations. For one thing Roy Halladay wanted to go a contender and for another in order to obtain maximum value Anthopoulos had to be trading with a team that was assured an extension with Halladay. These two filters and the fact that AA likely didn't want to trade the ace within the division really limited the destination to Philidelphia.<br />
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Despite all odds against him Anthopoulos impressively managed to get in return three prospects ranked in Baseball America's <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2010/02/the-complete-top-100-prospects-list/" target="_blank">2010 Top 100</a> with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drabeky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Drabek</a></strong> at #25, Michael Taylor at #29, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=darnau001tra" target="_blank">Travis d'Arnaud</a></strong> at #81. Of course later that year Taylor was swapped for Brett Wallace and at the trade deadline in 2010 Wallace was swapped for current Blue Jays prospect <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=gose--001ant" target="_blank">Anthony Gose</a></strong>.<br />
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The development of the prospects since the trade has had its highs and its lows. Drabek may have had a poor showing in the big leagues last year, but he still has the talent to be a solid starter. To go along with him are d'Arnaud who ranked in the top 10 on Law's 2012 list and and whom he said could "... turn out to be real impact player acquired by Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade" and Gose whom ranked just out of Law's Top 50. If Drabek regains form and d'Arnaud and and Gose develop as expected this trade could look eerily similar to the one that got the Braves Mark Teixeira. In that trade the Texas Rangers obtained three current Rangers in Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison, as well as now Boston Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.<br />
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Beyond the Roy Halladay trade Anthopoulos had to create a new direction for the club. He overhauled the entire draft and international free agency strategy that had been left by Ricciardi and for good reason. During Ricciardi's tenure 75% of the players drafted in the first five rounds were college players and only two [Edit: players drafted in the first round] in the eight years were from high school. One of those two players, Travis Snider, one of only two Blue Jays players to make the Top 10 in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects during Ricciardi's tenure.<br />
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Since then Anthopoulos has changed it such that over 75% of the players drafted in the first five rounds have been high school players essentially reversing the trend. This means that rather than the safe college picks of the past the Jays are pushing for high end talent. Much of this change was due to an increase in emphasis on draft spending as evidenced by the roughly $3.7 million that the Jays spent in Ricciardi's last year and the average of $11.3 million that they have spent in the two years since.<br />
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To go along with the trade talent infusion and the higher draft spending the Blue Jays spent a load on international talent. During Ricciardi's the Jays had a presence in Latin America, but were not spending to the extent the Jays have in the past two years. In 2010 the Blue Jays spent $2.8 million on Venezuelan right hander <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=cardon000ado" target="_blank">Adonys Cardona</a></strong> and in 2011 they spent $3.00 million on <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=osuna-002rob" target="_blank">Roberto Osuna</a></strong> two of the higher profile international signings in the past two years. As well in 2010 the Jays spent $10 million over four years for Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.<br />
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The emphasis on Latin American talent has surely developed a brand of sorts in the Latin American market. With the new CBA in place and it capping the amount that can be spent on players in International free agency it was important for the Jays to develop themselves in the market as a team that a player wants to be on. That means that in the future when two teams are offering same or similar bonuses the Jays may have established themselves a slight advantage.<br />
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On the whole with Anthopoulos the Blue Jays plan has obviously been to obtain high upside talent. You as a fan can consider this a good thing or a bad thing, but first realize this. Last year there were 46 players whose fWAR 5.0 or higher in the MLB, 67% of them were with the team that developed them. Of those 46 players another 20% were with a team that traded for them. That means a total of 87% of the top end players in the MLB were either developed as a prospect or acquired in trade through prospects.<br />
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In contrast, last season there were 244 players whom had a fWAR between 1.0 and 2.0. Those "role players" are the kind of players that are more often obtained through lesser draft and international free agent spending. They are also the same kind of players who can most often be bought on the free agent market for less than $10 million dollars.<br />
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That means to all of the fans criticizing Anthopoulos for his method should maybe step back just a little. Despite what you may believe Alex Anthopoulos is a smart man and he knows what he is doing. He has developed a system that may be hindered by the new CBA, but the farm system that he has spent millions of dollars on and the system that he has created will continue to pay dividends.<br />
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Because as was stated before the Jays farm system ranked at #3 on Keith Law's <a href="http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7547640/san-diego-padres-lead-keith-law-organizational-rankings-2012-mlb" target="_blank">farm system rankings</a>, with him also saying that "they are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter." The reason? Behind this top end level of talent the Blue Jays have lies more players in the lower minors like Cardona and Osuna who in a couple of years could be in the same position that d'Arnaud and Hutchison are.<br />
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If you still aren't convinced consider this, a similar high upside system was employed by the Rangers in years past and well look at where they are now. Just some food for thought.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/draft.jsp" target="_blank">MLB Draft History</a>, <a href="http://espn.com/" target="_blank">ESPN</a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGngf9SUCjUE-6EZs7j_wEFNx35KSM9RQlaViWYz2sc-MqvaFDghpAw87SZaDFnSlfIxZA7vyNsvLftIxzsQjUq_Q_nVfmJ5ZNXyFy0iDIyiM-pC6_QLXTXnZXYNvHQiYXC3CsmA_Dw4w/s1600/Picture+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGngf9SUCjUE-6EZs7j_wEFNx35KSM9RQlaViWYz2sc-MqvaFDghpAw87SZaDFnSlfIxZA7vyNsvLftIxzsQjUq_Q_nVfmJ5ZNXyFy0iDIyiM-pC6_QLXTXnZXYNvHQiYXC3CsmA_Dw4w/s320/Picture+5.png" width="294" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">Photo by </span><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/sillygwailo/5623423062/" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;">SillyGwaillo</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;"> licensed under </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en_CA" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Travis Snider</a></strong> is a peculiar player, one who recently has me pondering how we can project his future. He wasn't necessarily a "super high" draft pick having only been selected at #14, but he also wasn't really a dreamer prospect with all tools and no polish. Nonetheless he was a high school player and a high risk high reward talent who in 2008 looked to be the Blue Jays next big thing. Since then things have changed and we have definitely seen Snider take a turn for the worst. Now he has pushed himself into the category of the top prospect who hasn't panned out, making it particularly interesting to project what he can become.<br />
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Back in 2009 in his <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8609" target="_blank">Blue Jays Top 11 Prospects list</a> Kevin Goldstein said that <i>"[Snider] has to move to first base... but he's certainly going to hit."</i> Since then things have definitely changed. Fortunately for one thing Snider shouldn't have to worry about a move to first base anymore because the Blue Jays were confident enough about his athleticism that they started him in CF for 6 games. But also unfortunately Snider's hitting has also changed, but not in a good way as evidenced by the descending batting average since his initial season with the Jays. Though interestingly enough Snider's contact rate has increased, and his outside the zone swing percentage has decreased. Theoretically he should be hitting better, but just isn't producing. Despite all that going forward things can always shift and Snider has the talent to be better, he just hasn't produced. The question though would be is the talent going to show now or later.<br />
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For this bust prospect conundrum <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordoal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Alex Gordon</a></strong> has often been pointed to as a guy where it "worked out", but what you don't see at first glance is that it "worked out" after 1641 major league plate appearances a number that Snider would need two more full seasons to reach. Of course he is still young, but the Jays have all but burned up Snider's options. The time to give Snider playing time was the past three years when the Jays really didn't look like they were contending and could have milked out everything Snider had to offer. Instead Snider has gotten a grand total of 797 PA, which equates to just over one full season of plate appearances.<br />
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This has put Travis Snider in a rather unique situation, he doesn't have a whole lot of options because he has yet to spend a full season in the majors, but he also doesn't have that much playing time because he has been injured and is repeatedly sent down when he performs poorly. You might be asking why I'm questioning a demotion after a poor performance, but with any player of Snider's potential you wait and see what he can do rather than stuffing him in the minors.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfjr7mYnFMY1ofXbWmtEPm-oXpemmqgfCJ8acVfRIbvwdhaJEywNIKlMogP5mxKHt3Oir4UNDfzDYxG8OK74RV4Zgxv322bs37yKCNgQVqgQBamOgpLT38-6XAOuxCLOPAOyntK0unXOk/s1600/Picture+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfjr7mYnFMY1ofXbWmtEPm-oXpemmqgfCJ8acVfRIbvwdhaJEywNIKlMogP5mxKHt3Oir4UNDfzDYxG8OK74RV4Zgxv322bs37yKCNgQVqgQBamOgpLT38-6XAOuxCLOPAOyntK0unXOk/s400/Picture+1.png" width="255" /></a></div>In fact if you look at the chart to the left it shows that Travis Snider has the third least number of plate appearances in the first three years of the player's career of any top 20 outfield prospects in the past decade. One might point out the fact that Michael Cuddyer and BJ Upton are down there with Snider as a reason for hope and it is, but if you look at the other players around them like Joe Borchard, Lastings Milledge and Austin Kearns, you gain some more perspective.<br />
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Not to say that this means too much because all of these guys have been limited in their initial MLB experience because of many different reasons such as injury and Super Two status. Nonetheless I find the chart interesting, but it also makes it difficult to understand why the Blue Jays haven't given Snider more of a chance. When Alex Gordon was first brought into the majors he was given two full seasons before he was sent down, why wasn't Snider afforded the same luxury? Well for one the Jays "thought" they were contending and another they had a bit of a logjam in the outfield, but Snider is the kind of player you make room for, especially when winning is somewhat of an unrealistic expectation.<br />
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In spite of that one cannot change the past, but only look forward to the future, but because of the past the future is that much harder to predict. By this I mean now there is another roadblock in Snider's career and its name is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thameer01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eric Thames</a></strong>. Thames is the other young outfielder on the 25 man roster and since neither is likely to get enough at-bats as a back up one will have to be traded or demoted to AAA. Although Snider is the more highly touted prospect, but Thames did have the better season statistically in 2011 and therefore likely has the casual fans vote going forward.<br />
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This is all evidenced in the various projection systems as most don't think Snider will get a full season in the majors. Bill James has Snider at 239 PA in 2012, RotoChamp thinks it will be 270, FanGraphs fans have it at 394, ZiPS is at 514, and last but not least CAIRO guesses 283. Of course I would like to see Snider get a full season in the majors even if it is at the expense of Eric Thames, but I tend to side with Bill James in thinking that it probably won't happen. Though if it did what could come of Travis Snider?<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQiC1GTpdDkGX0Qr7dcrxUmgUSSAUImvsNk1Fhd4gm28Q5o02yXWXPS23avnm4gxa7wbVKNufGpsFtXi45yYXsYGv_KqfMqRUue9DvnJJJAV0vtMPT54E-M90fvP2cKjesItJkquqHt7o/s1600/Picture+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQiC1GTpdDkGX0Qr7dcrxUmgUSSAUImvsNk1Fhd4gm28Q5o02yXWXPS23avnm4gxa7wbVKNufGpsFtXi45yYXsYGv_KqfMqRUue9DvnJJJAV0vtMPT54E-M90fvP2cKjesItJkquqHt7o/s400/Picture+4.png" width="400" /></a></div>The chart right is an aggregate projection for Travis Snider taking together all the projections (Well the ones I use at least) and calculating the average. As you can probably tell it seems pretty pessimistic, but unfortunately is a realistic prediction. The reasoning being that the way most of these projections work is that they are on a regression system or one that looks at players in similar positions. The issue though is that because the talent that Snider possesses he could break out at any time. We saw it with Alex Gordon, Justin Upton and others in 2011 and it could (I use that term loosely) be Snider in 2012 if he's given the chance.<br />
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Again in the same 2009 <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8609" target="_blank">Blue Jays Top 11 Prospects list</a> Kevin Goldstein said that Snider's perfect world projection is <i>"... the third hitter in the Blue Jay's lineup, a perennial All-Star, and an occasional MVP candidate."</i> At this point it is unlikely that Snider will reach his offensive ceiling which Goldstein predicted to be <i>"a high average and well above average power." </i>That ceiling would likely look something like a .280 average with 30+ home runs, but at this point with all the setbacks that might be a tad unrealistic. Instead I would optimistically say that there's no reason Snider can't be a .270 hitter with say 25 home runs, I just don't think it will happen this year, which could be the problem.<br />
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If this year Snider again doesn't produce and if the Jays expect to be contenders in 2013 then they may be inclined to go another direction. That could be an ingenious decision <s>or the biggest bonehead move of the decade</s> (On second thought almost nothing can beat the signing of the Vernon Wells contract), but if recent history tells us anything it looks more likely to be the former. Looking at the chart with all the top 20 outfield prospects from the past decade most turned out to be pretty successful eventually. Granted there are some of the names that pop out as busts, but most because of injury and other non-talent related aspects.<br />
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Whatever the eventual decision be, I as a Travis Snider fan can only hope that at the very least the Blue Jays give him this season to attempt to be the player he was once projected to become. If he flops in 2012 well then I don't think that the Jays will continue with in 2013, but at the very least they would be able to say that they tried to recover the player that once was the 6th best prospect in major league baseball.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a>, <a href="http://baseballprospectus.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Prospectus</a><br />
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</script></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-85915859416659823462012-01-25T08:34:00.000-08:002012-01-25T15:34:36.734-08:00The Super Bullpen<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjHWJgtMx2ZGHuD6GHtocDhJODUziFjIXrw2adZ58xeLwBUL12V_kWldIx3b-5TBcVqRGTdgPIPY9jxjBistg2eTU_86pvIAfPLOXswnGK9UOrJ1TGqo-1cDRlkKvjPBdj1iq7flVYnfM/s1600/SuperBullpenBlue.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjHWJgtMx2ZGHuD6GHtocDhJODUziFjIXrw2adZ58xeLwBUL12V_kWldIx3b-5TBcVqRGTdgPIPY9jxjBistg2eTU_86pvIAfPLOXswnGK9UOrJ1TGqo-1cDRlkKvjPBdj1iq7flVYnfM/s320/SuperBullpenBlue.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">What's that on the field a catcher an outfielder, no it's the Super Bullpen</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Yesterday the Blue Jays signed former closer (not that it matters) <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cordefr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Francisco Cordero</a></strong>. Surprsingly to some fans at only 1 year and $4.5 million Cordero's contract is the largest guaranteed free agent contract that Alex Anthopoulos has signed in his short tenure as Blue Jays General Manager. Now as the offseason is coming to a close Anthopoulos has acquired four top end relievers in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santose01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Sergio Santos</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frasoja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Frasor</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oliveda02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Darren Oliver</a></strong>, and now Cordero. With the Jays having already had <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/janssca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Casey Janssen</a></strong> they now have five different guys with late inning experience. To me that doesn't matter, but to the fans who believe in the flawful (Yes I made that up) save statistic, it carries a lot of weight.<br />
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Beyond that on paper the bullpen surely looks good, definitely one of the better bullpens the Jays have had in the past decade, well until we see the production of course. Collectively Sergio Santos, Darren Oliver, Francisco Cordero, Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villaneuva, Litsch had a 3.23 ERA in the 2011 season. That number would rank 6th in the league, which is 15 spots higher than where the Blue Jays 3.88 bullpen ERA ranked this year. Of course that looks good, but rather than hyping up the bullpen as many are, I thought I'd take a conservative approach.<br />
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As I said before the bullpen sure looks good on paper and has pretty good depth with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carrejo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joel Carreno</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckch01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Chad Beck</a></strong>, and more, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will perform. Last offseason the Jays signed <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rauchjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jon Rauch</a></strong> and traded for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francfr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Frank Francisco</a></strong> expecting a couple of pretty good pitchers. In 2010 the collective ERA and FIP between the two of Rauch and Francisco was 3.44 and 3.03 respectively. Only one year later at the end of the 2011 season their collective ERA and FIP was 4.20 and 4.53. The collective ERA was 0.76 points higher and the FIP was a whole 1.50 points higher. Granted some of the production loss can be attributed to injury, but injuries are just another potential issue with relief pitchers.<br />
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Now getting to this year's potential relief pitchers there is some upside, but there's also reason to be concerned.<br />
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<b>Sergio Santos</b><br />
Being a converted shortstop, despite being 27 this will only be his third year in the MLB. So far he has been effective with a 3.29 ERA, 2.97 FIP, and 31 saves if you care about that stuff. On top of that Santos raised his strike rate and lowered his walk rate in 2011. Though all that is encouraging what also happened last year is Santos' HR/FB% raised to 11.3% and his BABIP was a concerning .269. Granted these numbers could be statistical anomalies as both were more "average" in 2010. I guess the real problem here is just that there isn't a lot of data on Santos, but he does have one of the best sliders in the league and doesn't have a whole lot of innings on the arm.<br />
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<b>Darren Oliver</b><br />
Oliver at 42 is almost twice the age of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Lawrie</a></strong>, but like a fine wine has only gotten better with age. The whole thing on Oliver is that he has posted a better ERA every year for the last five years, but what is even more encouraging is the 2.77 FIP that he posted in 2011. One thing to consider is that his strikeout rate dropped last year, but so did his walk rate so it kind of balances it out. The only real knock on Oliver would be his age and how long he can sustain success, but even that is a argument with really no basis.<br />
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<b>Francisco Cordero</b><br />
Cordero on the surface looked to have a pretty good year in 2011 with a 2.45 ERA and 37 saves (Whoopee!), but just a quick look at his <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1243&position=P" target="_blank">FanGraphs page</a> has quite a few reasons why he wasn't very good in 2011. For starters Cordero's FIP was at 4.02 and 1.57 points higher than his ERA, which is never a good thing. Beyond that it looks like he was pretty lucky in 2011 with an unsustainably low BABIP at .214, 80 points lower than his career average and a LOB% at 82.3%, 5.4% above his career average. Finally the stuff seems to be declining as according to Pitch/FX (via FanGraphs) he lost 1.5 MPH on the Fastball velocity. All of this sums up to an interesting 2012 for Cordero, if he doesn't get lucky again, we could be looking at a long season.<br />
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<b>Casey Janssen</b><br />
Janssen had a very good 2011 and was arguably Toronto's best relief pitcher. Beyond that there isn't much need be said. The peripherals match up with the ERA, the velocity was consistent. The only real knock I see on Janssen is that from year to year he has been a bit inconsistent, but this year and previously in his career he has shown he can be a great relief pitcher. The question really is will we see that great pitcher in 2012?<br />
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<b>Jason Frasor</b><br />
Frasor was a piece of the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong> trade at the 2011 trade deadline and now its seems the Jays only payed pennies on the dollar to <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2012/01/jays-bolster-bullpen-by-bringing-back.html" target="_blank">re-aquire</a> Frasor. Besides that, over his career Frasor has been as consistent as a relief pitcher not named Marian Rivera can be. He has only posted an ERA above 4.50 once and and posted the third best numbers of his career last year. I'd really like to point out something wrong with Jason Frasor, but to my knowledge there just isn't anything.<br />
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<b>Carlos Villaneuva</b><br />
Last season Villaneuva was the swingman of sorts for the Blue Jays. He filled in when the Jays needed a starter and he wasn't as bad as Jo-Jo, but that sure isn't saying much. This year with a bevy of options for the rotation Villaneuva will almost surely be in the bullpen, where he belongs. Though despite that what is concerning about Villaneuva, last year he almost cut his K% in half, which is never a good thing. Maybe it was the extra innings that caused a lack of Ks, but I'm not so sold. Villaneuva had similar production to the rest of his career, but if he doesn't start striking guys out it could be difficult to sustain success and he could add another half a point on his ERA to match his xFIP.<br />
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<b><strong>Jesse Litsch</strong></b><br />
I remember the days when Jesse Litsch was pitching way above his head to a sub 4.00 ERA as a starter and how the peripheral stats suggested he would regress. Now he has reached that point and stats like xFIP and SIERA suggest that he will get better and sometimes I just don't get it. If he pitches to his peripherals again he could put out some very good production and if he doesn't well then he just won't be a very good pitcher, kind of like last year.<br />
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<b>Final Thoughts</b><br />
On paper the Jays bullpen looks scary good and maybe the best they've had since the early 90s. But as we baseball fans should know bullpens are volatile and things don't always turn out the way they were "supposed" to. Notwithstanding the great bullpen that Anthopoulos built, I don't really see the value in all the money on the bullpen, when for example you could have let Joel Carreno pitch instead of Francisco Cordero and he could not have possibly been much worse. Some say that Anthopoulos is stockpiling arms for the trade deadline, but once we get to the deadline I'm sure we'll realize teams are willing to pay as much as they used to.<br />
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The reason being that in past years when a good, but not great relief pitcher went to free agency he'd likely end up being a Type B free agent, meaning the Jays could have gotten a supplemental first round pick out of him. That means that in negotiations at the deadline Alex could have always said that whatever you're offering, it better be worth more than a supplemental first round pick.<br />
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Now with the new CBA nixing the Type A and Type B free agent systems all of these good, not great relief pitchers will be worth nothing come the offseason. So rather than having the leverage of the possible pick that Anthopoulos could obtain, if he really wants something out of them, he'll have to take whatever he can get. More often than not I'm guessing the "prospect" will not be better than a supplemental first round pick, nor will it be worth half of the salary that is paid out to the reliever. If Alex Anthopoulos truly wanted a good bullpen thats fine he built one, but to suggest he's stockpiling arms seems a bit naive.<br />
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Of course we haven't seen how the market will react to the new CBA, so come July 31st I could be the one looking like the idiot. Because we all have to remember that last year Anthopoulos did trade some relief pitchers for one of the better young outfielders in the game at last year's trade deadline. At the very least this "Super Bullpen" should shush up the FAN 590 Jays Talk callers, and for both our sanity as well as Mike Wilner's I sure hope that happens.<br />
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As a side note I know the last couple posts have been kind of crapping on people's expectations, but in the next post their will be something quite a bit more optimistic so you can stay tuned for that.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>, <a href="http://baseballreference.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Reference</a></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Follow me on Twitter <a href="http://twitter.com/houseofthebb" target="_blank">@HouseOfTheBB</a></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Like the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/House-of-the-Bluebird/111115065666321?sk=wall" target="_blank">House of the Bluebird page</a> on Facebook</div></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-68719808188672811742012-01-15T14:45:00.000-08:002012-01-15T16:24:52.086-08:00Time to Play the Waiting Game<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UzX4i1cGF8k/TvPk89feWFI/AAAAAAAAAN4/ocMgfzSOBXk/s1600/Untitled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UzX4i1cGF8k/TvPk89feWFI/AAAAAAAAAN4/ocMgfzSOBXk/s320/Untitled.png" width="319" /></a></div><br />
Depending on who you ask the 2011-2012 offseason for the Jays could be classified as any number of things. On one hand Anthopoulos hasn't addressed all of the pieces on his <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2011/12/anthopoulos-christmas-list.html" target="_blank">wish list</a>, having only bolstered the bullpen, but not acquired the middle of the order bat and front of the rotation starter that I'm sure both he and the fans wanted. Though on the other hand he did address the most pressing need, the bullpen, by acquiring <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santose01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Sergio Santos</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frasoja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Frasor</a></strong> through trade and signing <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oliveda02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Darren Oliver</a></strong> in free agency.<br />
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Some people would call that a quiet offseason, but those three changes to the 25 man roster are the same amount that the <a href="http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&team_ID=19&amount_type=4&startDate=11/01/2011&endDate=04/01/2012&lang=41" target="_blank">Yankees</a> have made. Maybe the fans are just a wee bit spoiled from last offseason when there was five trades (6 if you count Olivo) plus another two major league signings, but theres no way anyone can expect that pace to continue. Last offseason many of those trades and signings were completed to fill roster spots, but this year is that really needed?<br />
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</div><div>The Jays already have five solid guys in the infield (Arencibia, Lawrie, Escobar, Johnson, Lind) and another two in the outfield (Rasmus, Bautista) and that doesn't include the Thames/Snider <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2011/08/mr-mustache-vs-senor-sideburns.html" target="_blank">battle</a> in left field. Then in the rotation you could say three spots are filled with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerri01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ricky Romero</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarhe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Henderson Alvarez</a></strong> and then there is at least three worthy candidates to fill the last two spots. Granted you could always sign or trade for better players, but in a year that at least I don't think the Jays are ready to compete in, why not let the guys already there play?</div><div><br />
</div><div>If the Jays sign <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong>, sure he'd be an upgrade over Lind, but to what extent? Lind does have "some" upside if you believe in his 2009 season and Fielder has downside in his inconsistencies. Then if the Jays trade for a front of the rotation starter it would be an upgrade and give the Jays some piece of mind, but again you have to think of what the other players could become.<br />
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Before the year <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drabeky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kyle Drabek</a></strong> had, some pegged him as a guy with #2 starter upside and before all his injuries <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Dustin McGowan</a></strong> had top of the rotation stuff. What's to say one of those two starters or even a player like Henderson Alvarez doesn't step it up and improve. Beyond that even a player like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cecilbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Cecil</a></strong> could return from mediocrity, or a player like Brandon Morrow could finally live up to his peripheral stats. Of course this is for the most part highly unlikely, but with this much uncertainty in what the above players could do and also what players like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Travis Snider</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thameer01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eric Thames</a></strong>, and even <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Lawrie</a></strong> might do, why rush the process?<br />
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Looking at the Jays record last season they finished at exactly .500 a record of 81-81 and ten games out of a playoff spot. Some players will surely improve and having Brett Lawrie at third instead of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nixja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jayson Nix</a></strong> is definitely a plus, but how can we know how good the team will truly be? Using Sky Kalkman's <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/11/12/2557029/updated-team-war-spreadsheet" target="_blank">WAR Calculator</a> as well as the Bill James projections (<a href="http://fangraphs.com/" target="_blank">via Fangraphs</a>) I found that James puts the Jays' win count around 90 wins, but he also puts both the Yankees and Red Sox at around 105 wins meaning he thinks the Jays are still 15 games worse than the beasts of the east. Looking at other projections systems the sentiment seems to be similar.<br />
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In the latest Cairo <a href="http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/index" target="_blank">projected standings</a> (A projection system I generally like) they have the Jays at 78 wins and 15 games out of a playoff spot. No matter what projection system you use be it Bill James, Marcel's, PECOTA, Cairo, or even just your gut feeling, there is very little way to work the numbers such that they end up with the Jays in a playoff position. As well according to the two projection systems I cited, not even 2001 <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a></strong> would push the Jays into the playoffs in 2012.<br />
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With all that said there's no need to punt the season and call it quits now (like the Oakland A's), but rather take a wait and see approach and with knowledge gained in 2012 to put that towards a better team in 2013. By 2013 prospects like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=gose--001ant" target="_blank">Anthony Gose</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=mcguir005wil" target="_blank">Deck McGuire</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=hutchi002and" target="_blank">Drew Hutchison</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=darnau001tra" target="_blank">Travis d'Arnaud</a></strong> will likely be pushing for spots on the 25 man roster out of spring training. As well if the Jays feel like they are really one player away at the point a quick look at MLBTR's <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html" target="_blank">2013 Free Agent Class</a> page shows that top of the rotation starters <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Cain</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a></strong> could all be potentially available with a more than formidable supporting cast of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Anibal Sanchez</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Francisco Liriano</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccarbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brandon McCarthy</a></strong> all of which have had at least one 4 WAR season in the past two seasons.<br />
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Of course any number of these guys could be extended particularly Hamels and Cain, but with a more certain team going in to 2012, the Jays will have a better view on what their financial flexibility will be as well as their playoff proximity. Furthermore rather than attempting to acquire a top of the rotation starter in a weak market (i.e. 2011-2012 offseason) they would be doing it in a saturated pitching market. We saw what happened to a less saturated pitching market this year when Buster Olney <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/Buster_ESPN/status/157882886220025856" target="_blank">tweeted</a> that free agent starters <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oswalro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Roy Oswalt</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksed01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Edwin Jackson</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kurodhi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Hiroki Kuroda</a></strong> were dropping their asking prices. As well as the major pay cut that Madson took because of a saturated closer market. All even more reason to wait out the 2012 season. And as an added bonus in 2013 there is the possibility that there may be two wildcard teams an indescribable addition to the Blue Jays playoff chances.<br />
<br />
On the whole despite what some may believe the Jays haven't and won't really "need"anything this offseason. Anthopoulos recently responded to the question of whether or not the roster the Jays have now will be the one they have going in to spring training while on the FAN 590 stating that, "Right now I would say yes, but I'm hopeful that something breaks in the next 2-3 weeks." Some are hopeful that this means something will happen, but I take it as Anthopoulos just continuing the interest in the team, but still stating that he pretty much has his team set for spring training. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is your choice, but in my opinion I am more than happy with the Jays offseason. They addressed their biggest need without sacrificing too much of the future and they left themselves in a position to let players like Travis Snider the ability to work out their issues. Here's to a hopeful 2012 that gives us a better picture of what is to come in 2013 and beyond.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Questions? Comments? Be sure to express your opinion</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"> in the comments below</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AP0VkLZp70s/TwZCvZ71q4I/AAAAAAAAAPM/R7tiz-ugziE/s1600/brandon-morrow.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="276" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AP0VkLZp70s/TwZCvZ71q4I/AAAAAAAAAPM/R7tiz-ugziE/s400/brandon-morrow.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo Courtesy of <a href="http://Mirosport.net/">Mirosport.net</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>With the Blue Jays offseason in a bit of a slump and the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oliveda02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Darren Oliver</a></strong> signing being the most exciting thing at the moment, I found myself having to write about something different. Rather than speculating on Garza rumours or a possible (I use that term loosely) <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong> signing, I have come to the realization that other than the occasional non-consequential signing the Jays likely won't do much in terms of roster changes this offseason. Instead they will likely stick to their plan of building from within and then keeping the talent in the organization. Up to this point the latter half of the plan has only needed to be addressed to a small extent, but now with young talented players like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Lawrie</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong>, and the centre of this writing piece <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a></strong> all possibly needing extensions, Alex Anthopoulos definitely has his work cut out for him.<br />
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Morrow as most of you probably know was traded to the Blue Jays from the Mariners in December 2009 for right handed reliever <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leagubr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brandon League</a></strong>. Seattle had drafted Morrow in the 2006 draft with presumably the intention of making him their closer. At the time this seemed fine as Morrow had the velocity and plus pitch that you traditionally look for in a closer, but as time went on the Seattle front office and coaching staff created some kinks in Morrow's development. These kinks being that towards the end of the 2008 season, the Mariners decided that they would begin to move Morrow to the starting rotation and out of a relief role, utilizing the ole Earl Weaver strategy.<br />
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Long story short Morrow's stints as a starter didn't turn out as expected and it resulted in the Mariners demotion of him to AAA as well as the multiple changes between roles in the starting rotation and the bullpen. Due to this Morrow began to become a "change of scenary" for Seattle in the sense that he didn't need to be traded, but would likely have trouble succeeding in Seattle organization through the development process they had created. Ultimately all of this hoopla turned out well, for the Jays at least, as it led to the trade that landed them Morrow in 2009. Reports initially coming from the Blue Jays organization subsequent to the trade suggested that they intended on using Morrow exclusively in the starting rotation, giving Morrow a clean slate to work on.<br />
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Now what does all this mean and why is it at all important to a possible contract extension. Well if you simply look at Brandon Morrow's service time and age you would see that he is heading in to his second year of arbitration and is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season. But if you take into account the time that Morrow spent with the Mariners and how he was never really used as a full time starter there, then Morrow is in some sense of the word a third year player.<br />
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In terms of the actual contract extension this means that rather than the negotiations acting as if Morrow is a guy with 4 years of service time, Anthopoulos could make the argument that Morrow is really just a third year player coming off his sophmore season. I'm sure Morrow's agent would have something to say about that, but it would be a good argument for Anthopoulos to make. If that is the route that Anthopoulos takes I'm sure guys like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jon Lester</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallayo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yovani Gallardo</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerri01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ricky Romero</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcija02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jaime Garcia</a></strong> would come up in terms of comparable contracts, all of which signed for around 5 years and $30 million.<br />
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Now obviously it is quite unreasonable to expect Morrow to take that type of contract when MLBTR already <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/projected-arbitration-salaries.html" target="_blank">projects him to make</a> $4.2 million in arbitration this year. Instead I'm sure Morrow's agent will come back comparing Brandon Morrow to the recently extended <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/danksjo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">John Danks</a></strong> and rightfully so. Danks signed an extension for 5 years and $65 million with the Chicago White Sox this offseason. Had he not signed the extension, Danks would have been eligible for free agency after the 2012 season one year before Brandon Morrow.<br />
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The Danks comp likely to be brought up would be interesting as Danks and Morrow are very similar but different at the same time. They are similar in the sense that both players are in their fifth year in the MLB and close to free agency, but due to time spent in the minors Morrow has one less year of service time and 3 less years of full time starting experience. Other than that one similarity they are pretty different in their execution, but both have been good starters over the last three years. Danks has the higher fWAR in the last three seasons, due in large part to a higher innings count. He also holds a lead in the traditional stats like ERA and Wins, which often increase arbitration and sometimes free agency earnings. Though on the other side Morrow holds a firm lead in his K% as well as the more sabrmetric and predictive stats such as FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. (Customized FanGraphs stats table <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,13,36,37,40,38,43,44,48,51,6,45,62,122,59&season=2011&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=6329,9346" target="_blank">here</a>)<br />
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What this all boils down to is that in the end Morrow will likely get a lot less guaranteed money than John Danks, but also significantly more than Ricky Romero. Danks' contract is worth about $65 million and Romero's is worth $30.1 million, it seems like such a simple-minded way to do it, but if you take the average of those two contracts it is about $47.5 million over 5 years. If there is to be a $47.5 million dollar extension proposed, I'm thinking it will probably work out something like this...<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZBJa-ahtHaA/TwaKJZjsBqI/AAAAAAAAAQI/1UGkB6LHfWg/s1600/Picture+9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="147" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZBJa-ahtHaA/TwaKJZjsBqI/AAAAAAAAAQI/1UGkB6LHfWg/s400/Picture+9.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div>If you look at the layout of the proposed contract, depending on how good they think Brandon Morrow really is, the contract seems to work out for both sides. Morrow gets some added financial security and the Blue Jays get 3 years of Brandon Morrow's free agency at a reasonable price with a chance at quite a bit of upside. Using the current assumption of approximately $5 million = 1 WAR we can figure that for Morrow to be worth the contract extension he only needs to produce 1.9 WAR per year. If we use FanGraphs version of WAR we see that over his past two years as a starter Brandon Morrow has averaged 3.5 WAR per season, far and above the value he would need to provide in order to fulfill the proposed contract extension.<br />
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Even if we use the less optimistic Baseball Reference version of WAR we can see that over the past two years Morrow has averaged 1.5 WAR. Then using <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/11/12/2557029/updated-team-war-spreadsheet" target="_blank">Sky Kalkman's WAR Spreadsheet</a>, we can figure out how much Morrow has to improve to fulfill his contract. As expressed in the first table over the course of his contract Morrow has to be worth an average of 1.9 WAR per year. In the past two years Morrow hasn't been at that mark, but if you take his average ERA from the past two years and then assume a steady innings increase you get a total of 11.0 WAR, which is still 1.5 WAR in surplus value. Even if you assume that he misses some time to injury, Morrow would still have to miss roughly 140 innings over the course of the contract, which isn't unprecedented, just to be worth the 0.1 WAR less than the value of the contract.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ulRd34GGiok/TwaOibnDMHI/AAAAAAAAAQs/fyz_3IWRED0/s1600/Picture+14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="122" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ulRd34GGiok/TwaOibnDMHI/AAAAAAAAAQs/fyz_3IWRED0/s400/Picture+14.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
Finally if you at all believe that Brandon Morrow will reach his "potential" that predictive stats such as his 3.51 xFIP or 3.31 SIERA over the past two years indicate, then that is all just added value. If you believe that over the course of his contract that Morrow will match his xFIP (top half of the table below) with the same innings counts as in the above table then he will be worth approximately 24.8 WAR, which is 15.3 wins of added value. Then if you are a real dreamer and believe that Morrow can match his SIERA (bottom half of the table below) he will be worth about 27.6 WAR, which is 18.1 wins in surplus value.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LZVYXJUj5rA/TwaYeHjPINI/AAAAAAAAARk/c9lVi3RRYkk/s1600/Picture+20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LZVYXJUj5rA/TwaYeHjPINI/AAAAAAAAARk/c9lVi3RRYkk/s400/Picture+20.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
Of course almost all of this is speculative research and depends quite a bit on Morrow accepting a contract similar to the 5 year $47.5 million dollar contract proposed earlier, but the contract at least in my opinion seems pretty fair and through this has a very good chance of providing surplus value. Though as I stated there is always the chance that Morrow would turn down that contract as he has <a href="http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/08/16/1784195/morrow-returns-with-nerd-stats.html" target="_blank">been known to follow</a> some sabrmetric stats or as he calls them "nerd" stats. He may feel like he has more potential to outperform this contract, but financial security is always nice too, especially for a pitcher. Then there is also the off chance that the Blue Jays organization feels like he isn't even worth the proposed amount. Whatever it is we as fans can only hope that at some point Brandon Morrow reaches his "potential" and doesn't just become one of those players with the great peripheral stats, who never lives up to them.<br />
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The Anthopoulos regime has been good with extensions thus far after handing them out to players such as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautis005jos&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong>, Ricky Romero, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobyu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yunel Escobar</a></strong>, we can only hope that the Jays front office continues the trend going forward. With Brandon Morrow and whatever other young cost controllable player the Blue Jays acquire.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">Questions? Comments? Feel free to express your thoughts<br />
in the comments section below</div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;">Follow me on Twitter <a href="http://twitter.com/houseofthebb" target="_blank">@HouseOfTheBB</a></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-33997668993805450112012-01-02T21:59:00.000-08:002012-02-05T14:22:21.037-08:00Jays Bolster Bullpen by Bringing Back Frasor<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/keithallison/5802460464/" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jason Frasor (54) by Keith Allison, on Flickr"><img alt="Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jason Frasor (54)" height="320" src="http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2293/5802460464_2bedab924c_o.jpg" width="201" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Frasor closing for the Jays</td></tr>
</tbody></table>On New Years Day the Jays traded minor league right handers <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=webb--001rob" target="_blank">Daniel Webb</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=jaye--001myl" target="_blank">Myles Jaye</a></strong> for relief pitcher <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frasoja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Frasor</a></strong> from the White Sox. On the surface the trade truly brings back a semi-true Blue Jay in the sense that Frasor has been a Jay almost his entire career save for the half a season he spent in south side Chicago. As you delve further you see how the trade helps the Jays as well as the effect that is has on Frasor.<br />
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<div style="text-align: left;"></div>Another plus in the trade is that the Jays only had to give away a couple lower level talents in Webb and Jaye. Webb is a 22 year old playing in A ball (so a little old for the league) and only pitched to a 5.59 ERA and 4.40 FIP. Granted the rate stats such as the 2.13 K/BB ratio are somewhat encouraging, but either way this definitely isn't a prospect that you'd see on any Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects list and likely not on any top 30 lists either.<br />
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As for Jaye, he has a little more polish and potential. He was the Blue Jays' 17th round pick in the 2010 draft, but was signed for $250,000 which is well above slot. As a deadline signee Jaye didn't play in short season ball in 2010 but in 2011 with the Bluefield Blue Jays of the Appy league he posted a 3.00 ERA and fantastic peripheral stats. Jaye may be better than Webb, but like Webb he won't be popping up on any Keith Law or Kevin Goldstein lists any time soon, well at least on the Jays side.<br />
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<div style="text-align: left;"></div>To go along with the very little that the Jays gave up because it was part salary relief, in Jason Frasor the Jays bring back a solid bullpen arm and a guy who has been among the most consistent relievers in the MLB over the past decade having only posted an ERA above 4.50 once in his career. As well with Frasor comes some veteran leadership that casual fans just eat up and a well known face because of all the time spent with the Jays.<br />
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In the bullpen, the role that Frasor likely fits in to is a share of the right handed setup man role with Casey Jannsen. He figures to add yet another piece to the surprisingly quick built bullpen in Toronto as so far this offseason Anthopoulos has added <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santose01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Sergio Santos</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oliveda02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Darren Oliver</a></strong>, maybe <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/laffeaa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Aaron Laffey</a></strong> and now Frasor to a bullpen that was in the bottom half of the league in most conventional and sabrmetric statistics.<br />
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<div style="text-align: right;"></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/keithallison/6028273128/" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Jason Frasor by Keith Allison, on Flickr"><img alt="Jason Frasor" height="231" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6208/6028273128_0989591980_o.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Frasor while with the White Sox</td></tr>
</tbody></table>AA took ahold of the Andrew Friedman method and quietly built a strong bullpen much like the Tamba Bay Rays last offseason and in their pennant winning 2008 season. The Rays are often cited as an example of why you don't need to spend big bucks on the bullpen and how bullpens can be built in a year. From the looks of it Anthopoulos has taken note from a division rival and hopefully like it did for the Rays it works for the Jays.<br />
<br />
Overall there really doesn't seem like any downside to this trade for the Jays and almost limitless upside. The prospects really don't figure to turn in to too much as they don't seem to have large amounts of promise. In the endwhat the trade boils down to is just a feel good trade for the Jays, something the Jays desperately needed after the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=darvis001yu-" target="_blank">Yu Darvish</a></strong> fiasco and the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong> drama. Because no one can complain about bringing back the Johnny Mac of the bullpen, Jason Frasor.<br />
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Trade Grade: <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">★</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">★</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">★</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"> Both photos courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/keithallison/" target="_blank">Keith Allison</a> and licensed under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/deed.en_CA" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a></span></span></span></span></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-87179992373757459572011-12-19T20:47:00.000-08:002012-02-05T11:21:27.765-08:00A Flawed System?<div style="text-align: right;"></div>Today it was announced the the Texas Rangers, not the Toronto Blue Jays won the bidding on Yu Darvish for a posting fee of $51.7 million. With many people around the baseball world projecting that the Blue Jays would be the winning team in the posting extravaganza, it got many many Jays fans excited for Darvish in Toronto only to be disappointed by the official reports. This brings up the question do the Jays really need to do this to us the fans? Do their policies need to be such that they hype up players only for hopes to be crushed?<br />
<br />
When J.P. Ricciardi passed on the torch to Alex Anthopoulos in 2009 there was a new mindset and a new system put in place. This system has been effective over the past couple of years, but one piece has come to the forefront this offseason. This piece of the system being the Blue Jays front office's insistence on not commenting on any players on the market.<br />
<div><br />
</div><div>On one hand this system creates mystery and allows the Jays front office team to operate without the public eye to unhinge any ongoing negotiations. But on the other hand as we have seen this offseason the lack of comments on players just creates rumours of the Jays being linked to practically every player on the market. </div><div><br />
</div><div>By even just a quick look at the <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/toronto_blue_jays/index.html" target="_blank">Blue Jays feed</a> on MLB Trade Rumors it shows that the Jays were linked to Carlos Beltran, Mat Latos, Dontrelle Willis, Prince Fielder, Darren Oliver, Gio Gonzalez, and those are only in the past week. Some teams are lucky to get linked to that many players in an entire offseason, yet alone in a week.</div><div><br />
</div><div>Some may point to the fact that the Jays have an incredibly large scouting staff as the reasoning, and I'm sure that is some of it, but with the Jays generally being a tight lipped organization it sure seems like some of this is being made up. Especially considering that generally the players that the Jays are linked to don't end up going to the Jays and the ones that aren't do. </div><div><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div>Take Sergio Santos for example, prior to the deal between the White Sox and Blue Jays there was literally no leak or rumour of him not only going to the Jays, but of him even being a trade candidate at all. The last post on Sergio Santos' feed on MLBTR before the trade came 2 months prior was talking about the team friendly extension that he signed with the team in September. </div><div><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;"></div><div>So how is this bad you may ask well as we have seen with Yu Darvish this past week and presumably Prince Fielder in the future, the Jays become linked to these big name players by a couple sources, then those sources talk to other sources and soon enough everybody knows. Once that situation comes about we end up with all the Jays blogs (myself included) and radio shows talking up Darvish getting the fans all excited that maybe Rogers is going to open up their checkbooks and sign a big name player. The excitement itself is great, it creates interest in the Jays and brings new fans to the sport. </div><div><br />
</div><div>The problem however is the after, as in what happens after we find out that often the Jays aren't the ones getting the big name player, they're the team waiting on the side in rebuilding mode. Granted the rebuilding part is good, it means the Jays are trying to create a contender for years to come, a statement the Blue Jays front office stands by, but if the current process is potentially turning away fans, doesn't there need to be change?<br />
<div style="text-align: left;"></div><br />
<div style="text-align: left;"></div>It is a debatable point as on one side you would think that to win the Jays need to make trades and that often requires privacy. But on the other and to win the Jays also need money and fans and by doing what they're doing they are turning fans away. We always hear the sentiment that when the Jays start winning the fans will come back to the games, but could the Jays be digging themselves into a hole they can't get out of?<br />
<br />
While listening to Jays Talk with Mike Wilner shortly after the Darvish announcement you start to hear what the casual fans think. As flawed as some of their opinions may be, they still make up a majority percentage of the fan base and will have a large opinion as such. On the same show another point is brought up about how the Jays never led anyone on during the Darvish process and that is the same thing you can say about any negotiations, because the Jays simply don't say anything and that is precisely the problem. They don't even say when they aren't interested in players because even if they don't like a player it could possibly taint future negotiations.<br />
<br />
In thought that seems like a good idea because the Jays help themselves by not tainting player negotiations and help fans by not leading them on. The problem is that in practice being that by not saying anything rather than not leading fans on, instead the Jays leave it up to a whole bunch of reports from "anonymous sources" to dictate the Blue Jays front office's views on players. The Jays give their fans really no parameters as to what their interests in players or even types of players are.<br />
<br />
With all that said don't take this as me trashing the Blue Jays front office, I don't mind the current system and I like the direction the Jays are taking. But something to think about with the current system is the toll that the fan base is taking. Anyways, since the Jays now won't get the chance to sign Darvish, here's to hoping they have a great rest of the offseason.</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-82546483965381064272011-12-13T21:19:00.000-08:002012-02-05T11:23:11.290-08:00Thinking About Yu<div style="text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I already made my case for why I think the Jays should aggressively pursue Darvish <a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2011/10/yu-answer.html" target="_blank">here</a>, but with the posting amount and team likely to be announced for Darvish today, I thought I would give some final outside the box thoughts on the subject of Japanese superstar <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=darvis001yu-" target="_blank">Yu Darvish</a></strong>. These thoughts are along the lines of my recent pondering on the extremely low, but potentially viable possibility that the team that wins the post ends up signing Darvish and then trading him away.</div><br />
<div style="text-align: right;"></div>It may seem like an odd thought, but unlike many free agent starters Darvish would be by no means untradable because of a favourable contract and could actually become quite the hot commodity. The reasoning behind this being that because of the posting fee Darvish himself will not get paid outrageously because the team is paying Darvish as if the contract includes the posting fee, but if traded the team trading for Darvish would only have to pay for the actual contract given to Darvish not the posting fee. It's an outside the box thought, but I'll make the case for it anyways.<br />
<br />
First off what is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=darvis001yu-" target="_blank">Yu Darvish</a></strong>'s value? He doesn't really have any comps in terms of his stats as they are in the NPB and are much better than anything before him and there really is no comps in terms of a MLB ready Top 10 prospect being traded away for other prospects. On some level for the latter we can look towards a certain Reds first base prospect for some idea of what to expect as he has been a sought after trade commodity this offseason. The current asking price for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alonsyo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yonder Alonso</a></strong> seems to be somewhat along the lines of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shielja02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">James Shields</a></strong>, but with the Rays looking at more of a <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niemaje01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jeff Niemann</a></strong> or <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviswa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Wade Davis</a></strong> for Alonso. With even just one of those starters plus whatever other prospects the Reds would potentially obtain in a deal it can be considered a pretty large haul.<br />
<br />
Then if we look at Darvish who like Yonder is somewhat of a prospect, but unlike Yonder who was only ranked at #73 on Baseball America's Top 100 list, Yu Darvish is much better. In 2007 <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matsuda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Daisuke Matsuzaka</a></strong> was ranked at #1 by Baseball America in their <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html" target="_blank">Top 100 List</a> and Darvish is considered almost unanimously to be a better prospect and player than Dice-K. I doubt BA will rank Darvish above the likes of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=harper002bry" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Moore</a></strong>, but I see no reason why he can't slot in at #4. Granted in this scenario Darvish is likely making $9 million a year and Alonso would only be making the MLB league minimum salary, so that would decrease his value a little bit, but teams pay for potential and Darvish has tons of it.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="clear: right; float: right; font-size: 12px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></span>So then in a hypothetical situation where say the Pittsburgh Pirates for whatever reason win the posting fee for Darvish and then look to trade him to the Yankees. What would they get from the Yankees, Montero, Betances, Banuelos? I can't say for sure what the package would be as we don't have much of a feel for the interest of many of these teams, but the Yankees could have as much as Dellan Betances, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=banuel001man" target="_blank">Manny Banuelos</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=willia001mas" target="_blank">Mason Williams</a></strong> to offer, if they believe in Darvish's talent and are in a win now situation.<br />
<br />
The question then becomes whether taking the hit for the posting fee is worth the prospects in return. The posting fee has been projected to be anywhere from $30 million to as high as $70 million so it is tough to say. Though if the posting fee only ends up being on the low end and comes in at $30 million, would you then trade away a potential ace for a shot at a good set of prospects. With the new CBA the draft costs are already going to certainly go down, so couldn't this be a chance to exploit the system, essentially paying $30 million for a set of prospects. Because for a team like the Pirates who have spent excessively on the draft in the past few years, could this be one last chance to use the money they had set aside for the draft to acquire other prospects.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;"></div>Overall I know this whole thought process does have many flaws such as the very good possibility that the posting fee could exceed $50 million, which would then essentially make this argument moot. But as I described for a team like the Pirates that always spends big on the draft this could be a chance to get around the new CBA to essentially pay for prospects. At this point it doesn't matter too much as whatever team wins the posting today will retain the sole negotiating rights to Yu Darvish with the hopes of signing him, but if this did happen and I doubt it will it would be a great way to stick it to the man, and by the man I mean Bud Selig.<br />
<br />
But with all this said if the Blue Jays win the post and sign Darvish, I don't think I'd want them doing this as it probably wouldn't send a good message to the fans. Though enough of my opinion as a fan of the Jays or a fan of anyone else who reads this post would you or would you not be in support of what I said, why or why not?<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">Be sure to comment and express your opinions below</div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;">Follow me on Twitter <a href="http://twitter.com/houseofthebb" target="_blank">@HouseOfTheBB</a></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-51415389584431361332011-12-09T14:57:00.000-08:002012-01-08T11:23:15.686-08:00Anthopoulos' Blue Jays Christmas List<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0-5DxcuDs_s38A3SnpHejf-Q0azw8Yn8QStvOt377Ng75TUkL6NTR-cHy3n67nDPnB8S5b_EXcfB1mhjhyNaadkYvPhlvzMpd2TTeB3yB1yx1o0MbzkjPTSM8UfIsoQBhMBuSh80JUHE/s1600/Picture+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0-5DxcuDs_s38A3SnpHejf-Q0azw8Yn8QStvOt377Ng75TUkL6NTR-cHy3n67nDPnB8S5b_EXcfB1mhjhyNaadkYvPhlvzMpd2TTeB3yB1yx1o0MbzkjPTSM8UfIsoQBhMBuSh80JUHE/s320/Picture+3.png" width="249" /></a></div><div style="text-align: auto;"></div><br />
In Blue Jays beat writer Gregor Chisholm's most recent blog <a href="http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/2011/12/08/day-four-saying-goodbye-to-dallas/" target="_blank">post</a> he talked to Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos about his thoughts on <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kelly Johnson</a></strong>, the Pujols contract, and most importantly Anthopoulos' objectives and wish list for the rest of this offseason. On the topic<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> of his wish list for the rest of the offseason Anthopoulos said, </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>“I think there are a lot of areas we could still address. You’d always love if you could add a bat to the middle of the lineup — that would be great. Realistically, I don’t know how possible that would be and right now I don’t see us being able to do that but things could change...</i></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px;"><i>I would love to add a mid to front rotation starter, again, that’s easier said than done because I think every team in the game is going to look to do something like that. We definitely still need to solidify our bullpen. We’ve taken care of the ninth inning but we still need to take care of the eighth inning and continue to build that depth.” </i>In the spirit of the holiday season I thought I would go over a couple of options to fulfill all the items on the Jays GM's Christmas list.</span><br />
<br />
<b><i>Middle of the Order Bat</i></b><br />
Currently the Blue Jays have two "middle of the order bats" in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindad01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Adam Lind</a></strong>, but after some lack luster production from Lind in the second half and Edwin in the first half, Anthopoulos obviously wants an upgrade. To start the offseason there was two prime first base bats in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong>, but with Pujols signing with the Angels and in the process reseting the market for Fielder, it has become a little bit more difficult. Despite that there is still some bats in both the trade market and free agency that Anthopoulos has the chance to go after, I'm just not sure he needs to, but nonetheless I looked at options anyways.<br />
<br />
<b>Ike Davis</b><br />
<div class="sr_share_wrap"><table class="sr_share" id="" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px sold #aaa; font-size: .83em;"><colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup> <thead>
<tr class="" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <th align="left" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Year</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Player’s age at midnight of June 30th of that year">Age</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Tm</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>League</strong><br><strong>AL</strong> - American League (1901-present)<br><strong>NL</strong> - National League (1876-present)<br><strong>AA</strong> - American Association (1882-1891)<br><strong>UA</strong> - Union Association (1884)<br><strong>PL</strong> - Players League (1890)<br><strong>FL</strong> - Federal League (1914-1915)<br><strong>NA</strong> - National Association (1871-1875)">Lg</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Games Played or Pitched">G</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Plate Appearances</strong><br>Estimated using AB + BB + HBP + SF + SH,<br>missing catcher interferences.<br>When <span class=tooltip>this color</span> click for a summary of each PA.">PA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Scored/Allowed">R</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Hits/Hits Allowed">H</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Doubles Hit/Allowed">2B</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Triples Hit/Allowed">3B</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Home Runs Hit/Allowed">HR</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Batted In">RBI</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Stolen Bases">SB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Caught Stealing">CS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Bases on Balls/Walks">BB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Strikeouts">SO</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Hits/At Bats</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">BA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>(H + BB + HBP)/(At Bats + BB + HBP + SF)</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">OBP</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Total Bases/At Bats or <br>(1B + 2*2B + 3*3B + 4*HR)/AB</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">SLG</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>On-Base + Slugging Percentages </strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">OPS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>OPS+</strong><br>100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]<br>Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)">OPS+</th> </tr>
</thead> <tbody>
<tr class="" data-row="1" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="display: table-row;"> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2009</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">22</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">NYM-min</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">A+,AA</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">114</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">488</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">58</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">128</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">31</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">20</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">71</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">57</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">112</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.298</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.381</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.524</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.906</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"></td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="3" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2010</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="New York Mets">NYM</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">147</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">601</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">73</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">138</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">33</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">19</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">71</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">72</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">138</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.264</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.351</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.440</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.791</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">115</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="4" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #ddeeff; background-image: url(http://d2ft4b0ve1aur1.cloudfront.net/images-001/aqua.png);"> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2011</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">24</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="New York Mets">NYM</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">36</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">149</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">20</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">39</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">8</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">7</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">25</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">17</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">31</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.302</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.383</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.543</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.925</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">155</td> </tr>
</tbody> <tfoot> </tfoot> </table><div class="sr_share" id="" style="font-size: 0.83em;">Provided by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisik02.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_standard">View Original Table</a><br />
Generated 12/9/2011.</div></div><br />
Recently we heard that the New York Mets are willing to listen to everyone on their roster save for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David Wright</a></strong>, which would therefore include first baseman <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisik02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ike Davis</a></strong>. Davis spent a majority of the past season on the disabled list, but prior to his injury in the month of April Davis had the 3rd highest wOBA in the MLB only after <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong>. In that short time Ike Davis hit 7 home runs and was on a 30 home run pace despite playing in one of the worst hitters parks in the MLB. To go along with his Major League success Davis was ranked as the number 62 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2010 season. As the market has yet to be set for Ike Davis I can't really say what it would take to get to acquire the young cost-controllable first baseman, but I will guess something along the line of Edwin Encarnacion and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=perez-010car,perez-011car,perez-012car,perezca01,perez-008car,perez-004car,perez-007car&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carlos Perez</a></strong>.<br />
<br />
<b>Kendrys Morales</b><br />
<div class="sr_share_wrap"><table class="sr_share" id="" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px sold #aaa; font-size: .83em;"><colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup> <thead>
<tr class="" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <th align="left" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Year</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Player’s age at midnight of June 30th of that year">Age</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Tm</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>League</strong><br><strong>AL</strong> - American League (1901-present)<br><strong>NL</strong> - National League (1876-present)<br><strong>AA</strong> - American Association (1882-1891)<br><strong>UA</strong> - Union Association (1884)<br><strong>PL</strong> - Players League (1890)<br><strong>FL</strong> - Federal League (1914-1915)<br><strong>NA</strong> - National Association (1871-1875)">Lg</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Games Played or Pitched">G</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Plate Appearances</strong><br>Estimated using AB + BB + HBP + SF + SH,<br>missing catcher interferences.<br>When <span class=tooltip>this color</span> click for a summary of each PA.">PA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Scored/Allowed">R</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Hits/Hits Allowed">H</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Doubles Hit/Allowed">2B</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Triples Hit/Allowed">3B</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Home Runs Hit/Allowed">HR</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Batted In">RBI</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Stolen Bases">SB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Caught Stealing">CS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Bases on Balls/Walks">BB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Strikeouts">SO</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Hits/At Bats</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">BA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>(H + BB + HBP)/(At Bats + BB + HBP + SF)</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">OBP</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Total Bases/At Bats or <br>(1B + 2*2B + 3*3B + 4*HR)/AB</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">SLG</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>On-Base + Slugging Percentages </strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">OPS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>OPS+</strong><br>100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]<br>Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)">OPS+</th> </tr>
</thead> <tbody>
<tr class="" data-row="6" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2008</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">25</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2008.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim">LAA</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2008.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">AL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">27</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">66</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">7</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">13</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">8</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">4</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">7</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.213</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.273</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.393</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.666</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">72</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="7" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2009</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim">LAA</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">AL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">152</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">622</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">86</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">173</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">43</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">34</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">108</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">7</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">46</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">117</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.306</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.355</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.569</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.924</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">139</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="8" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #ddeeff; background-image: url(http://d2ft4b0ve1aur1.cloudfront.net/images-001/aqua.png);"> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2010</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">27</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim">LAA</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">AL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">51</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">211</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">29</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">56</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">5</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">11</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">39</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">12</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">31</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.290</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.346</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.487</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.833</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">129</td> </tr>
</tbody> <tfoot> </tfoot> </table><div class="sr_share" id="" style="font-size: 0.83em;">Provided by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moralke01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_standard">View Original Table</a><br />
Generated 12/9/2011.</div></div><br />
With the Pujols signing the MLB lost the best free agent option, but also presumably gained another great option in return. This is because with the signing the Angels now have four 1B/DH types in Albert Pujols, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Mark Trumbo</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Bobby Abreu</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moralke01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kendrys Morales</a></strong> and with only Trumbo to move to third base, there is likely going to be one who is the odd man out. Granted Morales is coming off a season in which he was injured and the Angels would likely be selling low, but it doesn't seem like they have another option. Plus the sell low likely works in the Blue Jays favor. Like Davis there has been no set market yet, but if I had to guess I would say it could take the likes of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=mcguir005wil" target="_blank">Deck McGuire</a></strong> and say J.P. Arencibia.<br />
<br />
<b>Prince Fielder (<a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2011/10/why-votto-but-not-fielder.html" target="_blank">In Depth Look</a>)</b><br />
<div class="sr_share_wrap"><table class="sr_share" id="" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px sold #aaa; font-size: .83em;"><colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup> <thead>
<tr class="" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <th align="left" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Year</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Player’s age at midnight of June 30th of that year">Age</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Tm</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>League</strong><br><strong>AL</strong> - American League (1901-present)<br><strong>NL</strong> - National League (1876-present)<br><strong>AA</strong> - American Association (1882-1891)<br><strong>UA</strong> - Union Association (1884)<br><strong>PL</strong> - Players League (1890)<br><strong>FL</strong> - Federal League (1914-1915)<br><strong>NA</strong> - National Association (1871-1875)">Lg</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Games Played or Pitched">G</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Plate Appearances</strong><br>Estimated using AB + BB + HBP + SF + SH,<br>missing catcher interferences.<br>When <span class=tooltip>this color</span> click for a summary of each PA.">PA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Scored/Allowed">R</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Hits/Hits Allowed">H</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Doubles Hit/Allowed">2B</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Triples Hit/Allowed">3B</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Home Runs Hit/Allowed">HR</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Batted In">RBI</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Stolen Bases">SB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Caught Stealing">CS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Bases on Balls/Walks">BB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Strikeouts">SO</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Hits/At Bats</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">BA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>(H + BB + HBP)/(At Bats + BB + HBP + SF)</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">OBP</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>Total Bases/At Bats or <br>(1B + 2*2B + 3*3B + 4*HR)/AB</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">SLG</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>On-Base + Slugging Percentages </strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA<br>per team game played">OPS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>OPS+</strong><br>100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]<br>Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)">OPS+</th> </tr>
</thead> <tbody>
<tr class="" data-row="8" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2009</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">25</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Milwaukee Brewers">MIL</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><strong><em>162</em></strong></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">719</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">103</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">177</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">35</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">46</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><strong><em>141</em></strong></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">110</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">138</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.299</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.412</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.602</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.014</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">166</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="9" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2010</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Milwaukee Brewers">MIL</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">161</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">714</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">94</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">151</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">25</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">32</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">83</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><strong><em>114</em></strong></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">138</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.261</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.401</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.471</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.871</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">135</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="10" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #ddeeff; background-image: url(http://d2ft4b0ve1aur1.cloudfront.net/images-001/aqua.png);"> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2011</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">27</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Milwaukee Brewers">MIL</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><strong><em>162</em></strong></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">692</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">95</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">170</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">36</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">38</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">120</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">107</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">106</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.299</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.415</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.566</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">.981</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">164</td> </tr>
</tbody> <tfoot> </tfoot> </table><div class="sr_share" id="" style="font-size: 0.83em;">Provided by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_standard">View Original Table</a><br />
Generated 12/9/2011.</div></div><br />
Since the Albert Pujols signing has gone through Prince Fielder has by default become the most sought after power bat. We have heard that the Cubs, Brewers, Jays, Mariners, Rangers, and even the Orioles could be players for Fielder. Currently the reports are such that Scott Boras is looking to get Fielder a 8 year 200 million deal, which would be out of the Jays price range as they have stated that they won't go past a 5 year deal at this point. There is still the possibility that the market for Fielder falls through and the Jays can become a player, but it is highly unlikely. Fielder would look great hitting behind Bautista, but I doubt it happens.<br />
<br />
<b><i>Mid-Front of the Rotation Starter</i></b><br />
Currently as the Jays rotation stands it looks to be <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerri01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ricky Romero</a></strong>, Brandon Morrow, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarhe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Henderson Alvarez</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cecilbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Cecil</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Dustin McGowan</a></strong>. With that rotation the Jays have a usable set of starters, but not one that is anywhere close to being a contending rotation in the AL East. With that said here are a few options to up the front of the rotation.<br />
<br />
<b>Yu Darvish (<a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2011/10/yu-answer.html" target="_blank">In Depth Look</a>)</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2011/10/why-votto-but-not-fielder.html" target="_blank">Link</a> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=darvis001yu-" target="_blank">Yu Darvish</a></strong>'s "<i>Japanese Baseball Players"</i> Page</span></span></span></b><br />
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;"><br />
</span></span></span></b><br />
Darvish was recently posted by his team in the NPB the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters and has become the most sought after pitcher on the market. It has been reported that the Red Sox, Rangers and Jays are the ones with the most interest, but in the posting system it only takes one team to change everything. With that said the Jays have had reported interest, mostly based on the fact that Anthopoulos himself went to see Darvish in Japan, but with the Jays policy of not commenting on any players it is impossible to know their true thoughts. I personally believe that Darvish will make a good transition to the big leagues and would love for them to pick him up, but with the posting system it is such a crapshoot anything could happen.<br />
<br />
<b>Jon Niese (</b><a href="http://www.houseofthebluebird.com/2011/12/trade-target-jon-niese.html" target="_blank"><b>In Depth Look</b></a><b>)</b><br />
<div class="sr_share_wrap"><table class="sr_share" id="" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px sold #aaa; font-size: .83em;"><colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup> <thead>
<tr class="" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <th align="left" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Year</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Player’s age at midnight of June 30th of that year">Age</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Tm</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>League</strong><br><strong>AL</strong> - American League (1901-present)<br><strong>NL</strong> - National League (1876-present)<br><strong>AA</strong> - American Association (1882-1891)<br><strong>UA</strong> - Union Association (1884)<br><strong>PL</strong> - Players League (1890)<br><strong>FL</strong> - Federal League (1914-1915)<br><strong>NA</strong> - National Association (1871-1875)">Lg</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Wins">W</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Losses">L</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 * ER / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">ERA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Games Started">GS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Innings Pitched">IP</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Hits/Hits Allowed">H</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Scored/Allowed">R</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Home Runs Hit/Allowed">HR</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Bases on Balls/Walks">BB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Strikeouts">SO</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>ERA+</strong><br>100*[lgERA/ERA]<br>Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s).">ERA+</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>(BB + H)/IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">WHIP</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x H / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">H/9</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x HR / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">HR/9</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x BB / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">BB/9</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x SO / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">SO/9</th> </tr>
</thead> <tbody>
<tr class="" data-row="6" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2009</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">22</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="New York Mets">NYM</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">4.21</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">5</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">25.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">27</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">12</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">9</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">18</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">98</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.403</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">9.5</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0.4</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">6.3</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="8" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2010</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="New York Mets">NYM</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">9</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">10</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">4.20</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">30</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">173.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">192</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">97</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">20</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">62</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">148</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">93</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.463</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">10.0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">7.7</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="9" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #ddeeff; background-image: url(http://d2ft4b0ve1aur1.cloudfront.net/images-001/aqua.png);"> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2011</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">24</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="New York Mets">NYM</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">NL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">11</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">11</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">4.40</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">157.1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">178</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">88</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">14</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">44</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">138</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">84</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.411</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">10.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">0.8</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2.5</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">7.9</td> </tr>
</tbody> <tfoot> </tfoot> </table><div class="sr_share" id="" style="font-size: 0.83em;">Provided by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niesejo01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#pitching_standard">View Original Table</a><br />
Generated 12/9/2011.<br />
<br />
</div></div>Niese rumours like Ike Davis rumours are a product of the Mets statement that they would be willing to trade everyone on their roster. Niese also like Davis is young and cost controllable and potentially an undervalued asset. He may take a little more than expected as he is supposedly sought after by multiple teams, but I believe he is worth it. Based on his peripheral stats as well his scouting reports he seems to be a good bet to become a future #2 starter, something the Jays could always use more of. In my other post I outlined that I thought it would take <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidetr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Travis Snider</a></strong> and Deck McGuire to acquire Niese, which may seem like a lot, but the pitching market is low and Niese is a lot better than you think.<br />
<br />
<b>Ervin Santana</b><br />
<div class="sr_share_wrap"><table class="sr_share" id="" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px sold #aaa; font-size: .83em;"><colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup> <thead>
<tr class="" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <th align="left" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Year</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Player’s age at midnight of June 30th of that year">Age</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Tm</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>League</strong><br><strong>AL</strong> - American League (1901-present)<br><strong>NL</strong> - National League (1876-present)<br><strong>AA</strong> - American Association (1882-1891)<br><strong>UA</strong> - Union Association (1884)<br><strong>PL</strong> - Players League (1890)<br><strong>FL</strong> - Federal League (1914-1915)<br><strong>NA</strong> - National Association (1871-1875)">Lg</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Wins">W</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Losses">L</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 * ER / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">ERA</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Games Started">GS</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Shutouts<br>No runs allowed and a complete game.">SHO</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Innings Pitched">IP</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Hits/Hits Allowed">H</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Runs Scored/Allowed">R</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Home Runs Hit/Allowed">HR</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Bases on Balls/Walks">BB</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="Strikeouts">SO</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>ERA+</strong><br>100*[lgERA/ERA]<br>Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s).">ERA+</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>(BB + H)/IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">WHIP</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x H / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">H/9</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x HR / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">HR/9</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x BB / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">BB/9</th> <th align="center" class="tooltip hide_non_quals" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #dddddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;" tip="<strong>9 x SO / IP</strong><br>For recent years, leaders need 1 IP<br>per team game played">SO/9</th> </tr>
</thead> <tbody>
<tr class="" data-row="11" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2009</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim">LAA</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2009.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">AL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">8</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">8</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">5.03</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">23</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">139.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">159</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">83</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">24</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">47</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">107</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">87</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.475</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">10.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.5</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3.0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">6.9</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="12" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover=""> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2010</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">27</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim">LAA</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2010.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">AL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">17</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">10</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3.92</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">33</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">222.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">221</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">104</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">27</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">73</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">169</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">102</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.320</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">8.9</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3.0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">6.8</td> </tr>
<tr class="" data-row="13" id="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="background-color: #ddeeff; background-image: url(http://d2ft4b0ve1aur1.cloudfront.net/images-001/aqua.png);"> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2011</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">28</td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" title="Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim">LAA</a></td> <td align="left" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2011.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">AL</a></td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">11</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">12</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">3.38</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">33</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">228.2</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">207</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">95</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">26</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">72</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">178</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">112</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.220</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">8.1</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">1.0</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">2.8</td> <td align="right" onclick="" onmouseout="" onmouseover="" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap;">7.0</td> </tr>
</tbody> <tfoot> </tfoot> </table><div class="sr_share" id="" style="font-size: 0.83em;">Provided by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#pitching_standard">View Original Table</a><br />
Generated 12/9/2011.<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Before the offseason you would not have thought of Santana as a obvious trade candidate, but he is coming off a career season that the Angels could sell high on in an offseason with very little pitching. Plus with CJ Wilson being added to the Angels pitching staff <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ervin Santana</a></strong> becomes expendable. First off of the three candidates listed Santana is probably a last resort as the Angels are selling high and Santana would likely cost much more than he is worth. As well on top of the sell high aspect Ervin Santana only has two years left on his contract and would be paid $11.2 million in 2012 and $13 million in 2013, likely above what both Niese and Darvish would get, for what could quite possibly be lesser production. The reason I see to acquire Ervin Santana is a better track record and therefore more probable production, but with Niese and Darvish you have the upside, which may appeal more to AA.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><b>Solidifying the Bullpen</b></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">This offseason the bullpen is often brought up as the biggest thing that the Blue Jays need to address because of their "25 blown saves". As flawed as the argument is I'm not going to get into it and instead look at the bright side. First the Blue Jays acquired their closer for a little while in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santose01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Sergio Santos</a></strong> and second the Jays have many young arms vying for a bullpen spot, which are both positives for the team. I'm sure Anthopoulos will acquire some middle reliever be it in trade or free agency, but picking the starters and positions players that the Jays will acquire is hard enough with The Silent Assassin as the Jays GM, trying to guess which relievers he acquires would be like trying to find a needle in a hay stack. Sergio Santos is a prime example, I bet you could count on one hand the number of people that projected that the Jays would trade for Santos. The Santos deal came out of nowhere just like the Rauch deal from last year as well as the Francisco trade, it's simply too hard to guess. All we as Jays fans can hope for is that the Blue Jays bullpen is better and has less blown saves, not because blown saves matter, but to silence the complainers who have no idea what they are talking about. </span><br />
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</span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">What are your thoughts?</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Be sure to post a comment below and let your opinion be known.</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Follow me on Twitter <a href="http://twitter.com/houseofthebb" target="_blank">@HouseOfTheBB</a></span></div></div></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-24434712647158947102011-12-07T18:12:00.000-08:002012-01-08T11:22:53.734-08:00Trade Target: Jon Niese<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRCH98xP8IaLbPLuoUVP_Xt0Qtw34s26sCb0wKZ81Vh26EEGEslGZCciRG9HeJ6E1T2KJKgEhFGp8RsS0i91jBtyr79BQ9LfP8j4HGLB-rBiqIW7N6kFu6Wn-AP7HB4aW8iR4Acrzk0mY/s1600/Picture+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRCH98xP8IaLbPLuoUVP_Xt0Qtw34s26sCb0wKZ81Vh26EEGEslGZCciRG9HeJ6E1T2KJKgEhFGp8RsS0i91jBtyr79BQ9LfP8j4HGLB-rBiqIW7N6kFu6Wn-AP7HB4aW8iR4Acrzk0mY/s320/Picture+2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Courtesy of <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/slgc/4740424120/in/photostream/" target="_blank">slgckgc</a> licensed by <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en_CA" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Recently it was reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the New York Mets are getting offers on pitcher Jonathan Niese with the Blue Jays among the teams interested. Niese is a 25 year old starter whose repertoire consists of a 90 mph fastball with solid command, a dominant curveball and a solid cutter and changeup. Niese's traditional stats suggest he is somewhat of a mid to back of the rotation starter with a career 4.39 ERA and 22-23 record, but the peripheral stats suggest he is much better. Above all of this what I find particularly interesting is he seems to be Ricky Romero's statistical twin. They are both southpaws who have similar service times (Niese at 2.107, Romero at 3.000), but there is a lot more.<br />
<br />
For starters both Romero and Niese have the exact same career strikeout rate at 19.2% and are similar in their walk rates at 7.5% and 9.4% for Niese and Romero respectively. Beyond that Niese and Romero are also very similar in their batted ball profiles with Niese's career numbers at a 20.5 LD%, a 49.1 GB%, and a 30.3 FB%, while Romero's numbers are at a 17.2 LD%, a 54.7 GB%, and a 28.2 FB%. To top it off both Romero and Niese have similar home run rates at 11.8 HR/FB% and 10.7 HR/FB% in their careers.<br />
<br />
Not only are Romero and Niese statistical twins, but Niese's actual rate stats as well as his adjusted ERAs suggest that he is much better than he has shown, which makes him a prime trade target. Over his career Niese has consistently outperformed his ERA with a career ERA at 4.39, but with a career FIP at 3.77 and a career xFIP at 3.64. Most particularly notable is Niese's xFIP from this past season which was at 3.28 and 1.12 points lower than his 4.40 ERA. Niese's career low xFIP if qualified would have ranked 14th in the league between Anibal Sanchez and Dan Haren. Some of the xFIP is probably derived from Citi Field, but taking in to account that Niese is mainoly a groundball pitcher means that Citi shouldn't affect his numbers too much.<br />
<br />
All of this Niese hyping is nice, but really doesn't meaning anything if he doesn't come for the right price. On the Getting Blanked Podcast they suggested Snider plus something else, because Snider alone probably isn't enough. I would suggest something along the lines of Travis Snider and Deck McGuire, Snider an outfielder which is something that the Mets could use and a pitching prospect who projects as a mid rotation starter. It is a steep price to pay and it could leave you with having to play Thames in LF for 2012, but for a guy who is right now an easy #3 in the AL East with his groundball style and one who could easily become a Romero 2.0, which is a very valuable commodity. Romero made the adjustments as a 25 and 26 year old pitcher, why can't Niese?<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">What are your thoughts?</div><div style="text-align: center;">Be sure to post a comment and participate in the poll</div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;">Follow me on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#houseofthebb" target="_blank">@HouseOfTheBB</a></div><br />
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<tr><td width="500"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><b>Do you want the Jays to trade for Niese?</b></span></td></tr>
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</tbody></table></form>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8963275550388939753.post-32479944603506691072011-11-21T20:23:00.000-08:002012-01-08T11:22:29.750-08:00Somewhat Defending Evan Grant<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8718MeH7UFt1SR_7MR6Sup58QSf2GjqIH09pz4c4lGUKijSbr5ZlXOtxFHzeL1ACbWubQAYxbHx8KpQopnPbZYf_HiHEw1WUrgwJe5coJrvyYJB1pS2fue4C2RAx7OA0dgunCFO6n_SI/s1600/Picture+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8718MeH7UFt1SR_7MR6Sup58QSf2GjqIH09pz4c4lGUKijSbr5ZlXOtxFHzeL1ACbWubQAYxbHx8KpQopnPbZYf_HiHEw1WUrgwJe5coJrvyYJB1pS2fue4C2RAx7OA0dgunCFO6n_SI/s320/Picture+3.png" width="320" /></a></div>With the release of the AL MVP awards today two things came about in Blue Jays bloggerland, first people were unhappy, but at the same time expected that Jose Bautista would not be the AL MVP because he didn't have the narrative. Second was the extreme criticism of Texas Rangers beat writer Evan Grant who is the sole man to give Texas Rangers super utility man Michael Young a first place MVP vote. There have already been multiple articles trashing Mr. Grant's viewpoint and one most prominently done is that of Dustin Parkes over at <a href="http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/11/21/today-in-poorly-formed-thoughts-michael-young-as-american-league-mvp/" target="_blank">Getting Blanked</a>. Parkes essentially debunked all of Evan Grant's reasoning for giving Michael Young that first place vote and most of the debunking I agreed with the exception of the second last point. <br />
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Evan Grant's said <i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">"</span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">They don’t know that Derek Holland has met with him after almost every start lately for a critique and that Young and Holland have a special player-pitcher rapport. They don’t know that Mike Napoli, who is having a career year, lockers next to Young and has followed him around like a puppy dog."</span></i> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Essentially the point that Grant was trying to bring up was that players effect their teams in ways off the field and apparently in Michael's case it was positive. </span></span></i></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">In response Mr. Parkes wrote <i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">"</span></i></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I suppose that for next year’s awards, pitching coaches should get Cy Young consideration and bench coaches should should get MVP consideration. After all, these are the type of contributions that a manager or team of coaches make that isn’t relevant to how a player performs on the field." </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">With his response what Dustin Parkes fails to realize is that as much as us statheads may like to believe that all the value lies in the stats, players can have a positive effect on their team off of the field. We as fans may not be able to see these contributions, but they definitely are there and the name of the award is the Most Valuable Player, if the player is adding value with what he does off the field why disregard it. </span></span></i></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br />
</span></span></i></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;">Before I get too far along I must say that this in no way means that I agree with Evan Grant's choice of Michael Young for MVP, but his conundrum brings up a very interesting point. Why not consider all the facets of a player's game for his MVP consideration. In some cases this could be a negative effect and some a positive effect. For example there was a story a year or so ago that stated that rather than Cito Gaston or Dwayne Murphy being responsible for the beast that is Jose Bautista, it suggested that instead it may have been the man the Jays traded away, Vernon Wells. It was suggested that Vernon's tip for Jose was that he should swing way in front of the ball, because the ball just kept getting by him, obviously it worked. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;">Though in the end no matter whether it was Vernon, Cito, or Dwayne, these people, these beat writers have access to the players, coaches, and front office that us fans just don't. So then what is the big issue that these beat writers voting for the MVP take a player's off field abilities in to account. Obviously these such things shouldn't matter for the Rookie of the Year, which is the best rookie, or the Cy Young, which is the best pitcher, but for an award titled the Most Valuable Player, why not take all a player's value in to account. Many players have great coaching skills and that is why most coaches are former players. So for an award titled the Most Valuable Player, why not take all a player's value as the award suggests. </span><br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">Follow me on Twitter @<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/HouseOfTheBB" target="_blank">HouseOfTheBB</a></span></div><div style="text-align: center;">and be sure to express your opinions in the comments below</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com0