Thoughts on the Elias Rankings

Courtesy of the ESB Official Website

With the passing of the draft pick signing deadline on midnight August 16th, MLB Trade Rumors put out an updated version of the Elias Ranking projections (seen here) to give us a glimpse of how the draft might be in 2012. These Elias Ranking projections showed us that the Jays currently have 5 players who could garner them sandwich picks in the 2012 MLB Draft. These players are Jose Molina, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hill, Frank Francisco, and Jon Rauch. Though that looks good on paper it is still dependent on many variables such as guys accepting arbitration and some club options possibly being exercised by the Blue Jays. Nonetheless it is an impressive number that if all 5 players sign with other teams then it would be more compensation picks in the sandwich round for 2012 than in this year's draft.

Jose Molina
Jose has been a solid back up to rookie J.P. Arencibia this year with a 138 wRC+ (per FanGraphs) in his 139 plate appearances this year and the fact that he has hit well in limited plate appearances this year and last has propelled him to Type B free agent status. While looking at stats for this post, one thing that I did find interesting is that Jose actually has a better WAR this year than J.P. according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. According to FanGraphs he has been worth 1.5 WAR, where as J.P. has only been worth 1.0 and according to Baseball Reference the difference has been even bigger with Molina at 1.2 WAR and J.P. at 0.5 WAR.

By no means am I suggesting that we should have played Jose Molina all year, because had we played Molina more he probably would have regressed as the way he is hitting is far above his career numbers (2011 wRC+=138, Career wRC+=67). As well the hot hitting J.P. is still our catcher of the future (at least for now), while Jose Molina is just one of many stop gaps that AA has instituted. At the very least he has been a pretty good stop gap in terms of offensive and defensive numbers as well as being able to mentor J.P. and catch for the young pitchers (Drabek, Morrow, etc.).

He may be a valuable commodity to the Blue Jays right now, but currently he qualifies for Type B status and a draft pick is worth more than keeping him on board. There will be other Jose Molina type catchers in the offseason like Ramon Castro, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jason Varitek (if he would play for a team other than the Red Sox next season). With that potent backup catcher free agent class as well as Travis d'Arnaud absolutely lighting up AA pitching it would appear as if the Jays don't need to bring Molina back next season and therefore can afford to let him go for that ever so precious compensation pick. If AA can pull off a draft pick for a guy that we signed to backup John Buck then that will be yet another accomplishment to place on his resumé.

Edwin Encarnacion
If you had asked anyone knowledgeable about the Blue Jays at the end of May whether or not the Jays would exercise EE's option to bring him back next year I'm sure you would have got a resounding no. But since then Edwin has turned things around to become one of the most productive hitters in the whole league. He still may not be hitting a lot of homers, but he is hitting to a 218 wRC+ (per FanGraphs) in August which ranks him seventh in the league.

If he can continue this pace or at least continue on his July pace then he may be able to reach Type A status next year, but that is assuming that the CBA remains unchanged and it doesn't take away or change the free agent compensation system. As well it assumes that he gets some playing time at 3B to stay in the 2B/SS/3B category. If either of these things change then that could mean a lost draft pick in 2013. So then what this comes down to is whether the Jays feel like they are contending next year and that they could use his bat in the lineup everyday or whether they give themselves one more year to groom young players such as Eric Thames and Travis Snider, who would presumably be sharing the DH and LF spots for 2012. It is a big decision that could either potentially lose the Jays a draft pick or if they play well enough next year a playoff spot.

In my opinion I don't want to see Edwin back in a Jays uniform for next year. Yes, he is producing at extremely high levels and yes, he would be on an extremely team friendly contract, but this surge in production for EE is nothing new. He may not have produced at levels this high before but nonetheless Edwin Encarnacion is a very streaky player and when you delve further into the stats you see for yourself. What I found through research on FanGraphs is that in every year that Edwin has played since 2005 he has been consistently inconsistent.

When you look at Edwin's wRC+ month by month for every season in which he has played since his call up in 2005 you generally see a pattern. There is a couple months where he is above average, a couple where he is below average, a suckage month, and then a monster month. So far this year according to wRC+ Edwin has had two above average months, two below average months, and a monster month (which isn't done yet and will probably die down), therefore we would have to think that would lead us to believe that EE is going to have a suckage month in September. The only thing that is different about this year is he has gradually got better. After starting out badly the first couple months Edwin has gradually progressed and has posted a higher wRC+ every month.

Taking that in to account it may be evidence that there is improvement, but I don't buy it. There is no way that he can hold this 218 wRC+ that he currently has as he holds a BABIP at .400 which is 115 points above his career mark. What all this says is that this hot streak shouldn't be taken too much into account when the Jays decide upon his fate for next season, if Emilio Bonofacio can have a 26 game hit streak then EE can do what he has done in the month of August, but that doesn't mean it will continue forever.

Aaron Hill
Aaron Hill is definitely the most interesting of all of these free agent cases as he was the star player in 2009 and has been declining ever since, which is something that shouldn't be new to any of you. But what is interesting is that in recent Blue Jays broadcasts specifically last night's broadcast Buck and Pat were discussing how Dwayne Murphy has been working especially with Aaron Hill lately and how the Jays would like Hill to be their second baseman for the foreseeable future. Presumably because of this "extra" time working with Dwayne, Aaron Hill has been hitting better lately than before, but not to a level where he should be our starter with his 2012 salary. In the last week he has hit to a 96 wRC+ which is much better than his season mark of 67, but it is still below average and you don't purposely pay a below average player $8 million dollars.

I'm not in the Jays front office and I don't really know what they are considering for next season in terms of who is playing second base, but I can't see the Jays paying Aaron Hill $8 million to start for them. There still is the possibility that they decline Hill's options for 2012 and 2013 and then try and rework a contract for him, though if they do that then they give up any draft pick that they may get this year. Where as if they sign another second basemen to a one year deal then they can let Adeiny Hechavarria improve in the minors and then presumably take over at shortstop in 2013 with Yunel Escobar moving to second base (If you don't believe in Hech's progress then check out this Jays Journal article here). That seems like the most likely possibility, but the Jays may believe in Aaron and may want to keep giving him at bats. In my opinion I believe that he has had enough chances and that we should start moving away from the past and towards the future, which seems to be Adeiny Hechavarria.

Frank Francisco
With Frankie there isn't much to say other than what has been said. Some fans may say that we never should have traded for him in the first place pointing to the 3.0 WAR that Mike Napoli has produced for the Rangers, but Napoli never fit into our long term plans and he would have taken at-bats away from other deserving players. Regardless the Francisco for Napoli trade happened and there is no taking it back, but then the question becomes what do we do with Frank Francisco. We could offer him arbitration and have him decline it netting us a sandwich pick, but that depends on whether he would decline arbitration.

With Francisco having the bad-ish season that he is, with him making $4 million this year, and with the 2012 free agent market filled with top notch closers Francisco may want to accept arbitration or on the flip-side the Jays may not want to offer him arbitration at all. This creates a problem not only for the front office as they wouldn't get a draft pick, but it also gives the haters something to jab at Anthopolous with. This is because not only has Napoli had a good season for the Rangers on the field, but he has also produced enough to be projected as a Type A free agent for the 2013 offseason. The only way this would seem to work out for the Blue Jays is if AA and Frank Francisco have a handshake agreement for him to decline arbitration, thus netting the Jays yet another 2012 sandwich pick and then all is good in the world.

Jon Rauch
Last but not least is the guy who is currently on the 15 day DL Jon Rauch. There isn't much to say with Jon Rauch other than that he has had a bad season shown by his 1.79 HR/9 that ranks second last among qualified relievers as well as a 4.45 xFIP that ranks 16th last among qualified relievers (but still better than Kevin Gregg). Despite this he has still been able to muster up 11 saves woo hoo [sarcasm]. I along with most of you probably wouldn't care to see Rauch back next year despite his club option.

To be honest there is probably at least 5 other Rauches out there on the free agent market this offseason so then it would seem like AA won't have a hard time finding a replacement. The only problem then becomes whether Rauch would accept arbitration because he may test the market, but he may also want to keep the "guranteed" money from arbitration. Presumably AA would have to do the same thing with Rauch as he would with Francisco and that is to get the handshake agreement to solidify whether or not to offer these guys arbitration.

Final Thoughts
It would be nice to see the Jays have 7 picks in the first round (including the sandwich round) for the 2012 draft, but something is bound to change. Someone will probably accept arbitration just like Jason Frasor did last year and the Jays may just want to keep someone around for next year (Hill? Encarnacion?). Overall I am sure the Jays will find a way to work things out and they may even pull another Miguel Olivo to acquire another sandwich pick even if teams are more wary this time around. If all goes well then the Jays could be looking forward to another top farm system in 2012 and 2013 as we continue to take advantage of the free agent compensation system that may be gone in the next couple years.

Any Opinions, Arguments, Criticisms? Let me know in the comments below.

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The Problem with MLB Managers

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

Why is it that 90% of MLB Managers feel that they need to bat rookies so low in the lineup. Do they feel like there is too much pressure, like the rookies won't be able to handle more "responsibility" or are they just plain old-fashioned.

So then what is it about rookies that just "makes" managers bat them in the 7th, 8th, or 9th spot, it doesn't make any sense. Just because he hasn't seen MLB pitching that doesn't mean that he isn't any good, many of the top prospects being called up can make immediate impacts as sometimes one of the better hitters on a team. Take Dustin Ackley for example, when Ackley was called up in his first game Eric Wedge batted him 7th. Just think about this scenario for a second, you are in a pennant race, you are half a game back out of first place in the AL West and you bat your best hitter 7th; say what. Yes, you've got it 7th, not 6th, not 5th, not 4th, and not 3rd, you bat your best hitter 7th. Thats not even the worst part, the player they batted 5th Chris Pegauro at that point in the season he had a .214 average and a horrid .713 OPS, nuff said.

Now looking to a more Jays relevant example Brett Lawrie. He's a player who has absolutely killed PCL pitching, the Jays hyped him up so much and then you go and bat him 9th, why? It makes absolutely no sense, he is probably the most hyped prospect in Blue Jays history and you stuff him in the bottom of the lineup where he doesn't belong. Ok the Jays do have a good lineup and it is his first game so maybe John Farrell can get a gimme for that one. How bout the second game, let's see where is Brett batting oh wait of course it is 9th. And this time its even worse he batted 9th when our backup catcher Jose Molina batted ahead of him. Sure you can point to his .300+ average, but that is in very limited plate appearances, there is absolutely no way that Brett is a worse hitter than Jose Molina, even in his second MLB game.

Ok fine you can point to the fact that you don't want to embarass the veteran (stupid unwritten rules), but even then how do you bat Brett Lawrie behind Eric frickin Thames. In the last 7 days Eric Thames has registered 1 hit in 21 at bats and that warrants batting him in the number two spot. So if that is all you have to achieve to bat in the number 2 spot then how is it that Brett and his .459 wOBA (in AAA) warrants the ninth spot. It makes absolutely no sense. If anything you should be batting Colby Rasmus second (not Eric Thames) and put Lawrie in the 6th spot right behind Lind and EE. There he is absolutely without a doubt more valuable player to the team. He is lucky that in his first couple games there has been runners on base for him, but if he continues to bat behind Aaron Hill, Jose Molina etc. that won't be the case.

The problem is this Brett Lawrie nonsense isn't even the end of it. Since the beggining of the season JP Arencibia has had to put through with hitting in the bottom half of the lineup. Where he has hit 18 homers tied for the league lead by catchers. But guess how many of those were solo bombs not 5, not 10, 13. Thats 72% of his home runs that were hit when no one was on base. Do you know why no one was on base because the two guys who have most often hit in front of him are Juan Rivera and Aaron Hill. Two guys whose combined OBP's average out to .293 and whose combined home run totals is 11. Granted JP's OBP is actually worse than that .293 mark, but at least there would be runners on base when he hits his homers, it isn't like Aaron Hill is taking advantage of that spot in the lineup so why not change it up.

The consensus conclusion should be that for whatever reason despite being SABR savvy and whatever else it seems as if the managers of baseball still stick to their old ways when we are obviously moving to a new generation and if they don't move with us then soon enough they will get left behind. Maybe there is some underlying thing that no one outside of baseball knows about, but from the sidelines it seems pretty obvious that these decisions that are being made are bad ones. I don't care if someone is a veteran or not, if he is good he gets a high spot in the lineup if he isn't, well then bump him down . The only manager who I can honestly say that I look at on a regular basis and say "hey he's doing a good job" is Joe Maddon manager of the Tampa Bay Rays. He is consistently using statistics to help his team and he is always playing the percentages (and walking Damon to face Longoria is not playing the percentages John). So kudos to you Joe because you are one in a million and you definitely stand out from the rest, I hope that we as a baseball society can progress from the current mediocrity of MLB managing.

Any Opinions, Arguments, Criticisms? Let me know in the comments below.

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Mr. Mustache vs. Senor Sideburns

At the beginning of the 2011 season Travis Snider was one of many sleeper picks in fantasy leagues and was predicted by many Jays fans to finally have a break out season, he was always a top prospect he just hadn't put it all together. The prior year in 2010 Travis Snider showed many improving skills such as his expected but unseen power, but his play was limited due to an injury which kept him out for a major part of the season. Despite his injury he still managed to be a slightly above average player with a 105 wRC+ in the 82 games that he played.

At the beginning of the 2011 season Eric Thames was a 24 year old who had just had a great season at AA New Hampshire. In 2010 he hit 27 home runs and had a .370 OBP, which was good for a .896 OPS a number that marked third in the Eastern League and ahead of such prospects as Anthony Rizzo, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Danny Espinosa . In that year he had good power, he hit for good average, but his defense still wasn't great and he wasn't thought to be a very toolsy player shown by his 7th round draft choice.

These two guys are obviously two very different players, but can also be considered one in the same. Both are young outfielders and both were candidates to be sent down to Vegas so that the Blue Jays could bring up Brett Lawrie. In the end the decision was to send Travis Snider down.

Analyzing the Demotion
To an uneducated Blue Jays fan it may have seemed like an obvious choice to send down Travis Snider since his 2011 slash line of .225/.269/.348 is far inferior to that of Eric Thames at .270/.313/.455. But Travis Snider is still the top prospect and the Jays have stated that they want him to be there everyday left fielder and many others believe the same. So for Alex Anthopolous it couldn't have been an easy decision to make.

If they wanted they could have benched Edwin Encarnacion and just put Thames at DH (where he really should be), but Edwin is on the verge of Type B status and we all know how much AA values those draft picks. If he's going to buy one then he will definitely send down Snider for one. Another possibility I could have seen would have been buying out Mark Teahen and then having both Snider and Thames share at bats in left field with both playing when EE gets the day off. It would seem to be a good option, but I guess Rogers didn't want to fully break the bank and buyout the 5.5 million that Mark Teahen still has on that horrid contract.

In the end I think that they made the wrong decision in sending down one of the two outfielders as they both deserved major league at bats. But if they had to choose one of the two it should have been Eric Thames Yes, Thames may be hitting better this season, but it isn't like the Blue Jays are contending this season and need the hot hitter. They are looking for 2012 and beyond and despite his hot hitting in both the minors and the majors Eric Thames doesn't seem to be the option. Who knows Travis Snider could very well become the next Corey Patterson, but then he could also become a superstar, he has the potential and Eric Thames just does not.

The only reasoning I could possibly see for sending down Thames over Snider is the possible backlash from Jays fans. Because the reasoning that they gave to "tweak" his swing just isn't enough. The first time Snider was sent down this year it was exactly the same thing and how did that work, well he actually hit worse with a .670 OPS prior to his demotion and a .522 after the call up. So if it wasn't working the first time then what would lead them to believe it would work this time. The answer is it probably won't, so then why not keep Snider on the big league team where he can work with Dwayne Murphy and the other coaches. The Jays have stated that they want him to be part of their future so why not take steps to do so, give the guy some major league at bats and have him for the future don't stuff him in the minors where he has shown he can't improve.

Looking into the Future
Obviously I would love to see both Thames and Snider do very well in their careers, but as we know not everyone works out. Thames in a sense has the advantage because he has a lot less expected of him from both the organization and knowledgeable Jays fans because he is some 7th round miracle, where as Travis is the 1st round top prospect who has yet to pan out.

I would like to see the Jays keep the both of them past this season and get Eric Thames some at bats for next season at DH with Snider presumably in left. But if you want to capitaliza on Thames' good play then why not sell high. Thames may appear to be hitting well, but he is swinging at way too many pitches and not taking enough walks, so it would appear as if his average will surely drop play. He may very well be an everyday big leaguer some day, but right now he projects to be a good 4th outfielder something the Jays will have a lot of.

More Production at the Plate
This season both Snider and Thames have had more than adequete time to show off their stuff, but neither has yet to show us anything too special. With the likes of Darin Mastroianni, Moises Sierra, Adam Loewen, Jake Marisnick, Marcus Knecht, and of course Anthony Gose all pushing to get to the big leagues Thames and Snider are going to have to step it up.

Snider will keep getting the chances because he is the top prospect, but in order for him to secure a spot he's going to have to bring back his power and start walking again since this year Travis' ISO has dropped a whopping 85 points and he hasn't registered a walk since before his initial demotion. As well despite having played in twice as many games this season over his initial call up in 2008, Travis has actually produced less WAR. There is still the encouraging numbers from last season when Snider hit 14 homers and had a .331 wOBA over 82 games, but the numbers are still nothing compared to what was initially projected for the young phenom.

As for Eric Thames he better heat back up again if he wants to stay on the major league roster because despite his encouraging numbers over the 2011 season in the past 15 days he has hit to a lack luster .173 batting average with 11 K's, which includes a couple Golden Sombreros. Also unlike Snider, Eric Thames doesn't have his defense to lean back on shown by his -5.4 UZR/150 this year and Eric is just generally regarded as someone who can't really play the field. If Eric wants to stay on the MLB roster he is going to have to heat up again and hit like he did towards the end of June.

Either way despite both guys having their positives, they will not be able to rely on them for much longer due to the fact that their is just so many guys pushing for that last spot. If they want to stay in the MLB both Snider and Thames are going to have to take major steps to improve.

Final Thoughts
Overall it has been nice to see the "competition" between these two young players as they fight for the now what seems to be one remaining outfield spot after the trade for Colby Rasmus and the call up of Brett Lawrie. It has been nice to see them both get the playing time they have deserved and it will be even better once rosters are expanded in September at which time Travis Snider would be presumably called up and take some major league at bats.

As for after the season I gave my thoughts before stating that I would rather see Snider long term as he has shown more potential and apparently the Blue Jays agree because they have stated that they want Snider long term. Though what hasn't been said is whether he will play in the outfield or at DH (if he ever learns to hit in the big leagues) because he looks to have some competition within a couple years at the "one" remaining outfield position.

Any Opinions, Arguments, or Criticisms? Let me know in the comments below.

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