Projecting Performance: Infield

Projecting Performance is a series outlining each position of the Blue Jays roster with my thoughts on who should play the position and how well I expect them to perform for the 2012 season. The Starting Rotation and Outfield pieces are already posted.

Going in to 2011 the Blue Jays infield had more questions than Encarnacion has errors at third base. Would Lind and Hill return to 2009 form? Would Yunel Escobar build on a strong finish to the 2010 season? Would Arencibia improve on his abysmal call up performance? Would Encarnacion be able to play third base? Over the course of the season we found answers to those questions and things worked themselves out as they usually do. This year there may be even more questions with a couple of higher upside players in Kelly Johnson and Brett Lawrie added to the infield later in the year. However rather than questions on if players could be feasible, this year we seem to be asking how much better could they get.

Adam Lind
At this point I have lost all hope in Adam Lind. Some still seem to think that he could return to 2009 form many citing his .508 wOBA in the 2 months after he returned from injury. For one thing that was in a 123 PA sample and for another producing that well is great, but not when the other four months he produced a sub .300 wOBA to go along with his sub .300 OBP. As well when you consider that during Lind's stretch of extreme relevance he was facing 7% less lefties than the rest of the season you could see why he had a bit of a boost.

The problem I then have with the people who talk about Lind's two monster months are that they are also generally the same people that say Lind performed poorly late in the year because of his injury. What it really seems like is some people just can't let go of Lind's rather impressive 3.7 fWAR season in 2009 and who could blame them. Adam Lind was a great player, but there is a large emphasis on the 'was' there. As time goes on that great 2009 season more and more becomes the very definition of a 'career year'.

Of course I outlined this before, but in short in 2009 Lind simply saw the ball better. This isn't simply a factor of being hot though, in 2009 Lind had an O-Swing% almost 10% better than any other year of his career. He was seeing the ball better, but for whatever reason that really hasn't translated in to any other year of Lind's career and at this point I doubt it ever will.

The Verdict:
Lind isn't a great player, but he's not the worst first baseman in the league (He's close).  Despite the putrid results in 2011, I'd expect some improvement in 2012. He may not be one of the best hitters in baseball for a month again, but I'd guess that the production evens outs a little and he becomes at the very least an above average hitter in 2012. Unfortunately being a slightly above average hitter at first base simply won't cut it and the Jays could seriously find themselves pining for Votto come November. In the end of it all, it couldn't get any worse, could it?

WAR Prediction: 1.2

Kelly Johnson
Kelly Johnson didn't have a great 2011, but I'm definitely less worried about him than some of the others. Sure he did hit almost as terribly as Hill has the past couple years, but he's only one year removed from a 5.9 fWAR season. As well unlike Lind who did have a good season, Kelly has had a couple other respectable season with 2.7 fWAR in 2008 and 3.6 fWAR in 2007.

Furthermore it wasn't as if Kelly was Jeff Mathis with the stick last season. Despite hitting .222 last year Kelly Johnson still had a OBP higher than Adam Lind as well as a 2.2 fWAR. Meaning that even if he produced exactly the same as he did last year he would still be more than two times better than former second baseman Aaron Hill was.

The bonus on top of that if one would expect him to perform better. The course of his career has been a plethora of up and down seasons. He was bad last year so one would expect him to be better this year. Well that and he has shown that he has the skills to be a very good player.

The Verdict:
KJ wasn't great in 2011, but he was better than Aaron Hill and was more than just a serviceable second baseman. Beyond that he has history of success including his 5.9 fWAR season from 2010. Because of this one would expect a bounce back year from Kelly, maybe not to the tune of his 2010 season, but he could surely outperform what he did last year as well as what he did in 2008 and 2009.

WAR Prediction: 3.5

Yunel Escobar
Last year Yunel was the very proof that Anthopoulos' plan can work. He was unwanted in Atlanta because of supposed personal issues with Bobby Cox, but that didn't bother AA. He saw the potential and it payed off last year. Going forward Yunel would appear to continue to put out similar production. Prior to his iffy 2010 he was more than just a serviceable shortstop. Two other times he had an fWAR above 3.5 and in 2009 he had a better season than he did in 2011.

That right there is what sets Yunel apart from some of Toronto's other high potential players. Unlike the Sniders and Rasmusi (Yes that is the plural of Rasmus) of this world Yunel has a history of well sustained success. It wouldn't be crazy at all to assume at least another 4.0 WAR season out of Yunel with the possibility for more. He is aging and will be getting closer to the back end of his prime this year at age 29, but the tools he has generally aren't the ones that are conducive to the immediate effects of aging.

For example Yunel isn't much of a speedster, but rather a high hit tool, high walk kind of guy. That should do well to keep his offensive numbers up for longer than the average shortstop's prime. As well on the defensive side of things, a lot of Yunel's defensive value is gained from his throwing arm rather than his raw defensive techniques.

Although the fact that his arm is less conducive to aging could matter quite a bit less come 2013. At that time Cuban defensive wizard Adeiny Hechavarria could be pushing to make the big league roster, that is assuming he can hit and that assumption is no small load. If called up Adeiny could be the best defensive shortstop in the major leagues, but if his minor league numbers are any indication he could have a sub Adam Dunn batting average. In the end I'm going to bet the hitting will be his kryptonite and the reason why Yunel won't have to worry about anyone taking shortstop from him, for this year at least.

The Verdict
Outside of the first half of the 2010 season, Yunel Escobar has consistently been an above average to well above average shortstop and I don't expect much to change going forward. He's still going to hit for a high average, with some power, and some speed. He is most certainly not the prototypical shortstop, but his defense is slightly above average and he gets the job done. In the end thats all that really matters.

WAR Prediction: 4.0

Brett Lawrie
To Blue Jays fans, Brett Lawrie is more than just a player, he is an icon, a Canadian god, and the man who could take their team to the playoffs. From the excitement around him it would seem as if he is some sort of Tebow North, except he is definitely not as kosher as his equivalent to the south. Besides that Lawrie is good, but assuredly not as good as he was last season.

If Lawrie were to somehow become a Canadian god it may be possible that he would put up a 9.5 WAR season, which is his 2.7 fWAR season in 2011 prorated over 600 plate appearances, unfortunately for us he is not. However he is still very, very good. Keith Law ranked him at No. 10 on his Top 50 Players Under Age 25 list and John Sickels had him at No. 2 on his Favourite Players, 25 and Under list. In his write up Sickels said, "The only thing I'm concerned about here is a possible tendency towards nagging injuries," but also praised Lawrie's all around game.

Lawrie can run, he can throw, he can hit, he can hit for power, and as Sickels notes, "[he has] a glove that is underrated at the minimum." Lawrie has the tools, the question is just going to be whether he can turn those tools into fruition and then be able to stay on the field to sustain that production.

We saw what he can do in 171 plate appearances, but that is a still an eerily small sample size and nothing that should have fans realistically projecting him as an MVP candidate. ZiPS was pretty high on him, projecting a .275 average, 27 homers, 24 SBs, and a 119 OPS+. Beyond that they in the comps section his No. 1 comp was Chipper Jones and No. 2 was Adrian Beltre, which is definitely not too shabby in the projection category. As for me I think Lawrie is great, but he is really difficult to project. He could be on the Ryan Braun path or he could fall flat on his face. He did well according to both the numbers and scouts, which is encouraging, but it could take some time for him to reach superstar status.

WAR Prediction: 4.2

J.P. Arencibia 
J.P. is a lot of things, the holder of the franchise record for most home runs by a catcher in a rookie season, the creator of the Tim Kurkjian impersonations trend, a lady killer among female Blue Jays fans, and the not so proud owner .282 OBP. He was fine in 2011, he was a bad hitter, a bad defender, and he had some pop and there was nothing wrong with that the Jays had no other options. On the other hand going forward things could be much different. 

Blue Jays No. 1 prospect Travis d'Arnaud is inching ever so closely to the majors and being that he is playing in the hitter friendly PCL, he could be looking for a call up very soon. Once up it could be very hard to send him down, he is a better hitter than J.P, he has better defensive skills, and he could even hit more home runs. Granted J.P. has the major league experience, but Travis is a force to be reckoned with and will surely let make the Jays the owners of a nice problem to have.

The Verdict:.P. Arencibia isn't a terrible player, but he isn't as good as his 87 RBIs make him out to be. He could easily improve both his home run totals and OBP in 2012, but with his current skill set it is unlikely he ever becomes a star. However the Blue jays are still only paying Arencibia the league minimum salary to be a full time starting catcher, which isn't a half bad deal. JP is what he is and I don't see his skill set improving a whole lot, but that's not to say that he can't be a solid starting catcher.

WAR Prediction: 1.8

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

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The Anthopoulos Method

Today ESPN.com's Keith Law released his Top 100 Prospects List (Insider Req'd) as well as his Top 10 by organization. The Top 100 included five Jays minor leaguers with one even ranking in the Top 10, but that isn't really what this post is about. Instead may I point you to the farm system rankings (Insider Req'd) that Law posted on ESPN.com on Wednesday . In his post Law praised the Jays aggressiveness in the draft and international free agency and eventually ranked them at #3.

This ranking got me thinking because throughout the Ricciardi era the Blue Jays were never really considered to have a "good" farm system by any means. In fact the year before present GM Alex Anthopoulos took over J.P. Ricciardi had led the Jays to the #18 spot on Law's 2009 farm system rankings and at #19 on Baseball America's version. In the few years since the overhaul AA has managed to bolt the Jays from middle of the pack to a top end with potential for more. Specifically Law states in his write up "They are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter."

In 2009 when Alex Anthopoulos took over as General Manager as the Blue Jays he had a bit of a head start for the farm system and that would be Roy Halladay. At the time Halladay did boast the 9th highest fWAR in baseball, but Anthopoulos was still limited in his destinations. For one thing Roy Halladay wanted to go a contender and for another in order to obtain maximum value Anthopoulos had to be trading with a team that was assured an extension with Halladay. These two filters and the fact that AA likely didn't want to trade the ace within the division really limited the destination to Philidelphia.

Despite all odds against him Anthopoulos impressively managed to get in return three prospects ranked in Baseball America's 2010 Top 100 with Kyle Drabek at #25, Michael Taylor at #29, and Travis d'Arnaud at #81. Of course later that year Taylor was swapped for Brett Wallace and at the trade deadline in 2010 Wallace was swapped for current Blue Jays prospect Anthony Gose.

The development of the prospects since the trade has had its highs and its lows. Drabek may have had a poor showing in the big leagues last year, but he still has the talent to be a solid starter. To go along with him are d'Arnaud who ranked in the top 10 on Law's 2012 list and and whom he said could "... turn out to be real impact player acquired by Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade" and Gose whom ranked just out of Law's Top 50. If Drabek regains form and d'Arnaud and and Gose develop as expected this trade could look eerily similar to the one that got the Braves Mark Teixeira. In that trade the Texas Rangers obtained three current Rangers in Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison, as well as now Boston Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Beyond the Roy Halladay trade Anthopoulos had to create a new direction for the club. He overhauled the entire draft and international free agency strategy that had been left by Ricciardi and for good reason. During Ricciardi's tenure 75% of the players drafted in the first five rounds were college players and only two [Edit: players drafted in the first round] in the eight years were from high school. One of those two players, Travis Snider, one of only two Blue Jays players to make the Top 10 in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects during Ricciardi's tenure.

Since then Anthopoulos has changed it such that over 75% of the players drafted in the first five rounds have been high school players essentially reversing the trend. This means that rather than the safe college picks of the past the Jays are pushing for high end talent. Much of this change was due to an increase in emphasis on draft spending as evidenced by the roughly $3.7 million that the Jays spent in Ricciardi's last year and the average of $11.3 million that they have spent in the two years since.

To go along with the trade talent infusion and the higher draft spending the Blue Jays spent a load on international talent. During Ricciardi's the Jays had a presence in Latin America, but were not spending to the extent the Jays have in the past two years. In 2010 the Blue Jays spent $2.8 million on Venezuelan right hander Adonys Cardona and in 2011 they spent $3.00 million on Roberto Osuna two of the higher profile international signings in the past two years. As well in 2010 the Jays spent $10 million over four years for Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.

The emphasis on Latin American talent has surely developed a brand of sorts in the Latin American market. With the new CBA in place and it capping the amount that can be spent on players in International free agency it was important for the Jays to develop themselves in the market as a team that a player wants to be on. That means that in the future when two teams are offering same or similar bonuses the Jays may have established themselves a slight advantage.

On the whole with Anthopoulos the Blue Jays plan has obviously been to obtain high upside talent. You as a fan can consider this a good thing or a bad thing, but first realize this. Last year there were 46 players whose fWAR 5.0 or higher in the MLB, 67% of them were with the team that developed them. Of those 46 players another 20% were with a team that traded for them. That means a total of 87% of the top end players in the MLB were either developed as a prospect or acquired in trade through prospects.

In contrast, last season there were 244 players whom had a fWAR between 1.0 and 2.0. Those "role players" are the kind of players that are more often obtained through lesser draft and international free agent spending. They are also the same kind of players who can most often be bought on the free agent market for less than $10 million dollars.

That means to all of the fans criticizing Anthopoulos for his method should maybe step back just a little. Despite what you may believe Alex Anthopoulos is a smart man and he knows what he is doing. He has developed a system that may be hindered by the new CBA, but the farm system that he has spent millions of dollars on and the system that he has created will continue to pay dividends.

Because as was stated before the Jays farm system ranked at #3 on Keith Law's farm system rankings, with him also saying that "they are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter." The reason? Behind this top end level of talent the Blue Jays have lies more players in the lower minors like Cardona and Osuna who in a couple of years could be in the same position that d'Arnaud and Hutchison are.

If you still aren't convinced consider this, a similar high upside system was employed by the Rangers in years past and well look at where they are now. Just some food for thought.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, MLB Draft History, ESPN

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The New Mr. Unnapreciated

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

During the 2011 season in a article that was never ended up getting finished I outlined Mike McCoy as Mr. Unappreciated. The scrappy utility man played 2B, SS, 3B, CF, RF, and even pitched for the Jays this season. He played above average defense at 3 of the 5 positions according to UZR/150 (Beware the SSS) and hit at an almost parallel to the beloved John Mcdonald (McCoy .267 wOBA, Johhny Mac .269 wOBA). Yet, still Mikey Mick as the guys at Getting Blanked dubbed him, was always the odd man out. Granted he had the options and was easy to move, but still wasn't really appreciated for the versatility that he brought the Blue Jays. His journey from Minors to Majors and back again and again is nicely illustrated in the graphic below.

A Graphic by Minor Leaguer of Bluebird Banter

But enough of Mike McCoy and on to the man who is the New Mr. Unappreciated. This man is the man who nobody thinks of when the question comes up on who the Jays backup catcher will be in 2012. Not Jose Molina, not Ryan Doumit, not Jason Varitek, not even Travis d'Arnaud, but instead the man who should be the backing up J.P. the sophomore is the only member of the Blue Jays during the 2011 season who didn't play in a singlegame. Yes, ladies and gentlemen when asked who should back up Arencibia, I respond, Why not Brian Jeroloman.


It may not seem like the obvious first choice as Jeroloman isn't exactly a coveted catcher, nor is he a proven veteran (not that it matters), but the Jays believed in him enough to call him up to the majors in 2011 for a cup of coffee, if you can really call it that. Jeroloman surely won't produce in a major offensive way as evidenced by his sub .300 wOBA is the extremely hitter friendly PCL. There was the sentiment by some that he could become a fine offensive contributor after putting up a .429 OBP and .392 wOBA for the Fisher Cats in 2010, but at that point he was a little old for the league (24 at the time) and hasn't really shown he can cut it and what is often regarded as a easier level to pad the stats.


Still despite his offensive shortcomings it doesn't seem like he gets enough appreciation for what the guy who was "just a placeholder" on the roster could mean going forward. Brian is 25 will only make the MLB minimum salary in 2012 and provides absolutely stellar defense behind the plate. In fact as he progressed through the Blue Jays farm system there was always the sentiment that he had the defense to be a backup, if that is the direction the Jays wanted to take, but was always questionable on the hitting aspect (Unless you ask Ricciardi who called Jeroloman the catcher of the future). After over 2000 plate appearances in the minors it has become increasingly clear that the hitting just isn't there. Fortunately for Jeroloman the sparkling defense as described in scouting reports should get him to the big leagues.


I could go on and show off the dazzling scouting reports, but this quote from Jays Journal's Top 50 Jays Prospects List  pretty much sums it up, "He has above average receiving skills, a good ability to block balls in the dirt , and he really enjoys developing a positive rapport with his pitchers, who like throwing to him. He also has a good arm behind the plate, and might not hit for a high average but getting on base through taking pitches has always been his strength."

With the Jays pretty obviously looking for a defensively minded catcher to handle their young pitching staff the question becomes why not Jeroloman. Sure he isn't really going to hit much at all for the Jays, but with d'Arnaud maybe pushing for a spot at some point in 2012 and the other options really only being guys like Ramon Castro, Dionner Navarro, and Jason Varitek among others, why not give Jeroloman a chance. The Jays said they viewed him as a potential backup catcher for the future when they called him up after the Kelly Johnson trade in August and I'd bet that same opinion would still hold true. Sure, there was the ongoing joke about whether or not Jeroloman would be placed in a game as the 2011 season came to a close and the final verdict gave Jeroloman a thumbs down in that category. But he did get an interesting nickname as "Moonlight Graham" named after the 1905 New York Giants outfielder by the same name. Moonlight Graham only ever played in one game in his career and so far has done Jeroloman one better, but hopefully Brian will be able to overcome his nickname in 2012. 

In 2012 even if it means putting up with a likely well below average offensive production, the defense Jeroloman provides behind the plate, his game calling abilities, and the fact that he will make the league minimum in 2012 are all the pros towards making Jeroloman the backup. The only situation that I would want to see Brian not taking that spot in 2012 would be on the very off chance that the Blue Jays re-sign Jose Molina. That very likely won't happen unless the new CBA firmly changes draft pick compensation for the 2011-2012 offseason. So next time someone asks you who the backup will be, Why not Brian Jeroloman?

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And be sure to voice your opinion in the comments below

Reminising on Offseason Trade Rumors

Photo by ElCapitanBSC       Photo by SD Dirk         Photo by Keith Allison
All licensed under Creative Commons

During the 2010/2011 offseason Alex Anthopolous was said to have been extremely active on the offseason trade market. According to rumors the Jays tried to acquire Dan Uggla, Justin Upton, and Zack Greinke among others. All three were prime trade targets with many teams looking to acquire each of of them and in the case of Justin Upton half the league was getting involved. So it is no surprise to hear that Alex Anthopolous was right there with the other GM's in trying to acquire these "star" players. Although none of the three players were traded to the Blue Jays it is nice to hear that the Jays are getting involved. Alex Anthopolous checked all the possibilities and with that said we can now look back at what may have been.

Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla was the one of these three guys that the Jays were probably closest to acquiring, at least according to the rumors. Some of the big names being thrown around as players to be sent to the Marlins were along the likes of Travis d'Arnaud plus a pitcher such as Brett Cecil or Mark Rzepczynski and then some filler prospects. At the time it seemed like it was a little much for Uggla, but he was coming off the best season of his career, a season in which he produced 5.0 WAR. But nonetheless it takes talent to get talent and in the prior seasons Dan Uggla had been an all-star second basemen with the year in and year out consitency of a 30 home run season, which from second base or even the proposed switch to third base would have been a welcome addition to the Blue Jays.

As for this season Uggla hasn't been quite as stellar as in years past. On the whole Uggla has a 106 wRC+ putting him in the category of slightly above average, but prior to July when his hitting streak started Uggla was hitting to a lack-luster 59 wRC+ which is far below average. He was having one of the worst statistical seasons of his career until July when he suddenly started a hitting streak that went on for 33 games before Cubs second basemen Darwin Barney made a diving play to rob Uggla of a hit.

During his hitting streak Dan Uggla was a completely different person than the man who had been hitting to a 59 wRC+. In that 33 game span Uggla brought his batting average up above the mendoza line and hit a whopping 15 homers. After seeing how Uggla performed at the beginning of the season and how he has performed since the beginning of July it is really a tale of two seasons. Though if you look at the numbers that Uggla has put up in the past you have to believe the talent level lies closer to the latter half of the season. Even with Uggla's disappointing first half he still has a 2.3 lead in the FanGraphs version of WAR over the recently departed Aaron Hill (Uggla 1.8 WAR, Hill -0.5 WAR).

If the trade was to go through with the proposed d'Arnaud, Cecil/Rzep plus filler that would seem to be a little much. Having seen the breakout season from d'Arnaud as well as how Rzep was kind of the main part in the Rasmus trade I'm thinking that it wouldn't have been a great trade for the Jays. As well had the trade been made then it would block Adeiny Hechavarria who has enjoyed a very nice batting line since joining the 51's. It is already known that he has major league defense and in AAA it looks like he has made some genuine changes to his swing as to push at the Jays for a promotion. He may not be ready yet, but if he can put it together his combination of stellar defense, good speed, okay hitting and the fact that he would make far less money than Uggla he could turn out to be a much better option. All of this is just pluses to the fall-through of a what was a possible Dan Uggla trade. 

Justin Upton

Justin Upton was probably the single most sought after player in the offseason trade market and he never even ended up being traded. Despite that the Jays were always rumored to be one of the top teams in the running for Upton before Kevin Towers decided that no prospect package he had been offered was good enough for the younger Upton. The major rumored trade offer that was heard from the Jays was Travis Snider, Kyle Drabek, Carlos Perez, plus another pitcher in the lower ranks of the farm system (Chad Jenkins, Drew Hutchison) for Justin Upton.

Originally this package looked like a lot to give up for Upton, even if he was a 23 year old phenom. But now looking in hindsight it would have been a steal for the Jays. Three of the proposed trade chips haven't really impressed this year Snider has been sent up and down, Drabek started the year with the Jays and then got sent down, and Perez looks to have taken major steps back in both his offensive and defensive play. Sure Drabek and Snider can be considered top prospects, but in my eyes Snider at least kind of seems like a lost cause he may only be 23, but he has plenty of major league at bats and he can't seem to figure it out. He has shown flashes of multiple tools, but all in different seasons, he can't seem to figure it out and put it all together for one final season. Then with Drabek it seems like a mental issue where he has kind of dominated every level of the minors, but with him skipping AAA it seemed like the majors were a little too much for him.

Looking on Jays forums with the topic of that package for Justin Upton the almost consensus thought was that the Jays shouldn't give up that package for Upton, who at the time had a 4 WAR and 3 WAR season behind him, with scouts only predicting for him to improve. This year he has definitely done that because with still a month to go Justin Upton leads the league with a 6.2 WAR and is looking like he may become the NL MVP. 

Where as you look at the stats of Snider and Drabek in the majors and they are a little lacking. During his two tenures with the Jays this season Travis Snider has a .225/.269/.348 slash line with a 69 wRC+. That 69 wRC+ would rank 11th last in the league if Travis was qualified. Also between his post all-star call-up and his recent demotion Travis Snider took a whopping total of one walk. Walking used to be a skill that Travis had, but now for whatever reason he seems to have forgotten how to utilize it. Because of this lack luster play in the majors the Jays send him down to AAA and there he plays how we expected him to play in the . Granted it is the PCL which is very hitter friendly, but could Travis be that AAAA guy. He's still young and has time to change things, but as of right now things aren't looking good. He isn't getting major league at bats and he has a flurry of outfield prospects looking to pass him in the ranks. 

As for Drabek well he definitely hasn't been much better. When he was in the majors he had an ERA of 5.70 with a FIP that suggests it shouldn't have been much better. This was due in part to the fact that Drabek wasn't missing bats (5.94 K/9) and in part because his control was no where to be seen (6.44 B/9). This led him to a last in the league 0.92 K/BB ratio. He was supposed to be some super prospect and he just simply couldn't do it in the majors. I personally attribute some of that to him skipping AAA. I know that the PCL is extremely hitter friendly and that it can be a nightmare for pitchers, but if he got the experience there and dealt with struggles at AAA it may have prepared him better for struggles in the majors. 

With Carlos Perez there isn't much to say. He was a highly attributed catching prospect for the Jays despite him playing in the lower ranks of the farm system. This year he has definitely regressed at both his defense and offense as he was known for being an contact hitter and his average has regressed more than 30 points down to .269. As for his defense well his CS% has dropped from 49% in 2009 to 36% in 2010 to %30 in 2011, thats not a great trend there.

Finally with the add on prospect which was speculated to be a pitcher it wouldn't have been a big deal. Even if it were a higher end prospect such as Chad Jenkins or Drew Hutchison it wouldn't have been a big deal because the Jays just have so much pitching talent in even the rookie leagues now. Players such as Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Arodis Cardona, and Justin Nicolino are all poised to take any spot that would have been opened with the Justin Upton trade. 

On the whole unlike with the first trade rumor it is looking like the Jays should have jumped on this. Even if both Snider and Drabek turn out to be serviceable major leaguers, they still aren't worth a guy who is an MVP candidate at 24 and one who is signed through until 2015 at a now team friendly contract. Despite this I can understand how at the time AA wouldn't have made this trade. Prior to this season Snider looked like he still had plenty of potential and Drabek looked like he may become a #2 starter in the long run. Who knows maybe in a year or two Justin Upton will wear out his welcome in Arizona and the Silent Assassin will come in for the kill.

Zack Greinke

Last but certainly not least was Zack Greinke. Greinke was kind of a difficult trade candidate because he was the AL Cy Young winner in 2009, but then in 2010 it appeared as if he appeared to have completely tanked as he put up a 4.17 ERA and produced a 10-14 win loss record. Despite the basic numbers his peripherals still looked pretty good as he had a 3.34 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP for the year. The only thing that was a little concerning was the dip in Greinke's strikeout rate which went from a career high 9.5 K/9 in 2009 to a 7.4 K/9 in 2010. Greinke would have seemed like a classic buy low AA pickup.

The reported asking price for what at the time seemed like the only Top 25 pitcher on the trade market  was apparently Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek, which seemed like an absurd overvalue. They were asking for two players who were going to be the centerpieces for a deal for a 23 year old signed to a team friendly contract for 5 years to be the centerpieces to a 27 year old coming off a bad season signed to a less team friendly contract for two years . I think that right there was the problem and once the Royals reportedly wanted that and nothing less the trade talks with the Jays seemed to dwindle.

When you look at the surface stats by Zack Greinke this year with his 4.22 ERA and 12-5 win loss record it looks like the Jays were right in keeping their young, but recently disappointing prospects. Though when you look further you see that Zack Greinke actually has been much better than his 4.21 ERA indicates as he holds a 3.01 FIP as well as a 2.42 xFIP. Much of the difference between the ERA and these advanced stats can be attributed to the absolutely horrid defense that the Brewers have put out on the field this year, but what can also be held somewhat accountable is his career low 64.3 LOB%. As well as having better peripheral ERA stats Greinke also has a 10.90 K/9 and a 5.17 K/BB, two numbers that rank as the highest in the young hurlers career and among the leagues elite. 

All of this sums up to a trade that may have worked and may not have. On one hand Greinke has been doing great this year (although the basic numbers don't show it) where as Snider and Drabek have been lacking, but on the other hand Greinke is only signed until 2012 and there is no guarantee that he would sign with us past that mark. The real time when the Blue Jays would need a guy like Greinke is when they know that they are competeing, kind of like the Brewers this season. The Jays very well may compete next season if there is the added wildcard spot, but it is still not a sure thing. I would say that if Greinke was signed until 2013 a year when the Jays are definitley more likely to compete for a playoff spot then maybe the trade makes sense, but it is still a little iffy due to the still very apparent potential of Drabek and Snider. But with where the Jays are and where they will be next year, it seems like it was a good decision to let the deal fall through.

Final Thoughts

This past offseason was definitely filled with many Blue Jays trade rumors, much of which can be attributed to the man who never sleeps Alex Anthopolous. These rumors showed that the Jays aren't afraid to agressively pursue three fairly high profile players, even if in the end they don't acquire any of them. But nonetheless they tried and in this set of rumors there was a trade that they didn't make and shouldn't have made, a trade that they should have made, but couldn't have made and a trade that could be considered a toss up. Of course all of these opinions are with hindsight so its always nice to say the Blue Jays should have done this or they should have done that, but in the end the Jays acquired none of the three high profile players and they may just be better because of it in the future. That is the thing with these kind of high profile trades you just never know until years down the road. 

Blue Jays Mid-Season Milestones

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

As we reach the mid point in the season and we approach the All-Star break we see some pretty amazing things happening north of the border. After the huge Vote Jose campaign run by the Jays this year we saw Jose Bautista become the highest all time vote getter with almost 7.5 million votes for Tuesday's All-Star Game surpassing Ken Griffey Jr's 17 year old record of roughly 6 million votes.

This came after Bautista was snubbed from the mid summer classic in 2010, despite leading the league in home runs with 24 dingers before the break. Though to be fair at the time Jose was hitting only .237 and as we all know it wasn't like Jose Bautista was a household name. This year the Blue Jays definitely made sure that the reigning home run leader would not again be snubbed and as we have seen their massive campaigning not only got Jose to the game, but they have made Jose Bautista a household name across Canada and the United States.

Another big event this week was Jose's passing of George Bell's Blue Jays team record 29 home runs before the break, which Jose beat out with 2 home runs in the final game before the break to reach a total of 31 home runs. This puts him on pace for 62 on the season, which if he does hit 60 would be the first time in 10 years. The last time that milestone was reached was back in 2001 when Barry Bonds beat out Mark McGwire's single season home run record..

All of what Jose Bautista is doing is great for Blue Jays baseball today as they're bringing fans back to the Rogers Centre and getting the Jays more known across the league, but what I feel really matters is the how well the Jays farm system is doing and the team that it will make us in the future. There is no better examples of this than the fact that there was 3 of the Jays top prospects included on Baseball America's annual Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects list with Gose at #45, d'Arnaud at #29, and Lawrie at #10.

Lawrie who we know was acquired this offseason from the Brewers for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum was ranked 30 spots higher than the pre-season list. With the way that Marcum has performed this season it makes us Jays fans feel a little better to see Lawrie perform the way he did and make it this high on Baseball America's propsect list. It will be even better to finally see Lawrie in the majors now that he is almost done recovering from his hand injury.

Regarding Gose it is nice to see that Baseball America realizes this guy's potential. He was already known to have 3 super tools with his speed, arm, and fielding and none of those tools seem to have regressed at AA New Hampshire. Though it seems like in New Hampshire Gose has added some power with 9 home runs half way through the season and an ISO that has improved 34 points over his 2010 numbers.

 It seems like the only problem that people have with Gose is that he hits for a lower average than most leadoff hitters with his .264 mark. But when you look at the stats you see that right now the mean batting average for leadoff hitters in the MLB is .266, but the mean on base percentage for leadoff hitters in the MLB is .330 and Gose's OBP is 28 points higher at .358. A number that would rank sixth among MLB leadoff hitters. Finally considering that Gose's BAs and OBPs have remained very consistent throughout his minor league career their is no reason to believe that either of those numbers will regress to much in the majors. Which means that with his speed and power he could very well make an all-star leadoff hitter.

Finally with d'Arnaud it is nice to see him bounce back to a .300 batting average after having hit about .255 the past two years between A and high A. It is further looking like he will become the Jays catcher of the future. He may not have Arencibia power, but his power isn't bad, he can hit for a .300 average, and he has plus defensive skills. If Arencibia doesn't raise his average soon, then d'Arnaud may very well take his spot within the next season.

This just about wraps it up for the first half of the season. We end off seeing a struggling major league team with many holes in its lineup, but we see a thriving farm system with strengths in both pitching and hitting. Because of this we are seeing an increasing trend of americans recognizing the single Canadian team. Recognizing how good we are and how good we are going to be with big name prospects such as Lawrie, d'Arnaud, and Gose soon to make an impact on the big league roster.