The Curious Case of Travis Snider

Photo by SillyGwaillo licensed under Creative Commons

Travis Snider is a peculiar player, one who recently has me pondering how we can project his future. He wasn't necessarily a "super high" draft pick having only been selected at #14, but he also wasn't really a dreamer prospect with all tools and no polish. Nonetheless he was a high school player and a high risk high reward talent who in 2008 looked to be the Blue Jays next big thing. Since then things have changed and we have definitely seen Snider take a turn for the worst. Now he has pushed himself into the category of the top prospect who hasn't panned out, making it particularly interesting to project what he can become.

Back in 2009 in his Blue Jays Top 11 Prospects list Kevin Goldstein said that "[Snider] has to move to first base... but he's certainly going to hit." Since then things have definitely changed. Fortunately for one thing Snider shouldn't have to worry about a move to first base anymore because the Blue Jays were confident enough about his athleticism that they started him in CF for 6 games. But also unfortunately Snider's hitting has also changed, but not in a good way as evidenced by the descending batting average since his initial season with the Jays. Though interestingly enough Snider's contact rate has increased, and his outside the zone swing percentage has decreased. Theoretically he should be hitting better, but just isn't producing. Despite all that going forward things can always shift and Snider has the talent to be better, he just hasn't produced. The question though would be is the talent going to show now or later.

For this bust prospect conundrum Alex Gordon has often been pointed to as a guy where it "worked out", but what you don't see at first glance is that it "worked out" after 1641 major league plate appearances a number that Snider would need two more full seasons to reach. Of course he is still young, but the Jays have all but burned up Snider's options. The time to give Snider playing time was the past three years when the Jays really didn't look like they were contending and could have milked out everything Snider had to offer. Instead Snider has gotten a grand total of 797 PA, which equates to just over one full season of plate appearances.

This has put Travis Snider in a rather unique situation, he doesn't have a whole lot of options because he has yet to spend a full season in the majors, but he also doesn't have that much playing time because he has been injured and is repeatedly sent down when he performs poorly. You might be asking why I'm questioning a demotion after a poor performance, but with any player of Snider's potential you wait and see what he can do rather than stuffing him in the minors.

In fact if you look at the chart to the left it shows that Travis Snider has the third least number of plate appearances in the first three years of the player's career of any top 20 outfield prospects in the past decade. One might point out the fact that Michael Cuddyer and BJ Upton are down there with Snider as a reason for hope and it is, but if you look at the other players around them like Joe Borchard, Lastings Milledge and Austin Kearns, you gain some more perspective.

Not to say that this means too much because all of these guys have been limited in their initial MLB experience because of many different reasons such as injury and Super Two status. Nonetheless I find the chart interesting, but it also makes it difficult to understand why the Blue Jays haven't given Snider more of a chance. When Alex Gordon was first brought into the majors he was given two full seasons before he was sent down, why wasn't Snider afforded the same luxury? Well for one the Jays "thought" they were contending and another they had a bit of a logjam in the outfield, but Snider is the kind of player you make room for, especially when winning is somewhat of an unrealistic expectation.

In spite of that one cannot change the past, but only look forward to the future, but because of the past the future is that much harder to predict. By this I mean now there is another roadblock in Snider's career and its name is Eric Thames. Thames is the other young outfielder on the 25 man roster and since neither is likely to get enough at-bats as a back up one will have to be traded or demoted to AAA. Although Snider is the more highly touted prospect, but Thames did have the better season statistically  in 2011 and therefore likely has the casual fans vote going forward.

This is all evidenced in the various projection systems as most don't think Snider will get a full season in the majors. Bill James has Snider at 239 PA in 2012, RotoChamp thinks it will be 270, FanGraphs fans have it at 394, ZiPS is at 514, and last but not least CAIRO guesses 283. Of course I would like to see Snider get a full season in the majors even if it is at the expense of Eric Thames, but I tend to side with Bill James in thinking that it probably won't happen. Though if it did what could come of Travis Snider?

The chart right is an aggregate projection for Travis Snider taking together all the projections (Well the ones I use at least) and calculating the average. As you can probably tell it seems pretty pessimistic, but unfortunately is a realistic prediction. The reasoning being that the way most of these projections work is that they are on a regression system or one that looks at players in similar positions. The issue though is that because the talent that Snider possesses he could break out at any time. We saw it with Alex Gordon, Justin Upton and others in 2011 and it could (I use that term loosely) be Snider in 2012 if he's given the chance.

Again in the same 2009 Blue Jays Top 11 Prospects list Kevin Goldstein said that Snider's perfect world projection is "... the third hitter in the Blue Jay's lineup, a perennial All-Star, and an occasional MVP candidate." At this point it is unlikely that Snider will reach his offensive ceiling which Goldstein predicted to be "a high average and well above average power."  That ceiling would likely look something like a .280 average with 30+ home runs, but at this point with all the setbacks that might be a tad unrealistic. Instead I would optimistically say that there's no reason Snider can't be a .270 hitter with say 25 home runs, I just don't think it will happen this year, which could be the problem.

If this year Snider again doesn't produce and if the Jays expect to be contenders in 2013 then they may be inclined to go another direction. That could be an ingenious decision or the biggest bonehead move of the decade (On second thought almost nothing can beat the signing of the Vernon Wells contract), but if recent history tells us anything it looks more likely to be the former. Looking at the chart with all the top 20 outfield prospects from the past decade most turned out to be pretty successful eventually. Granted there are some of the names that pop out as busts, but most because of injury and other non-talent related aspects.

Whatever the eventual decision be, I as a Travis Snider fan can only hope that at the very least the Blue Jays give him this season to attempt to be the player he was once projected to become. If he flops in 2012 well then I don't think that the Jays will continue with in 2013, but at the very least they would be able to say that they tried to recover the player that once was the 6th best prospect in major league baseball.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus

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