A Flawed System?

Today it was announced the the Texas Rangers, not the Toronto Blue Jays won the bidding on Yu Darvish for a posting fee of $51.7 million. With many people around the baseball world projecting that the Blue Jays would be the winning team in the posting extravaganza, it got many many Jays fans excited for Darvish in Toronto only to be disappointed by the official reports. This brings up the question do the Jays really need to do this to us the fans? Do their policies need to be such that they hype up players only for hopes to be crushed?

When J.P. Ricciardi passed on the torch to Alex Anthopoulos in 2009 there was a new mindset and a new system put in place. This system has been effective over the past couple of years, but one piece has come to the forefront this offseason. This piece of the system being the Blue Jays front office's insistence on not commenting on any players on the market.

On one hand this system creates mystery and allows the Jays front office team to operate without the public eye to unhinge any ongoing negotiations. But on the other hand as we have seen this offseason the lack of comments on players just creates rumours of the Jays being linked to practically every player on the market. 

By even just a quick look at the Blue Jays feed on MLB Trade Rumors it shows that the Jays were linked to Carlos Beltran, Mat Latos, Dontrelle Willis, Prince Fielder, Darren Oliver, Gio Gonzalez, and those are only in the past week. Some teams are lucky to get linked to that many players in an entire offseason, yet alone in a week.

Some may point to the fact that the Jays have an incredibly large scouting staff as the reasoning, and I'm sure that is some of it, but with the Jays generally being a tight lipped organization it sure seems like some of this is being made up. Especially considering that generally the players that the Jays are linked to don't end up going to the Jays and the ones that aren't do. 

Take Sergio Santos for example, prior to the deal between the White Sox and Blue Jays there was literally no leak or rumour of him not only going to the Jays, but of him even being a trade candidate at all. The last post on Sergio Santos' feed on MLBTR before the trade came 2 months prior was talking about the team friendly extension that he signed with the team in September. 

So how is this bad you may ask well as we have seen with Yu Darvish this past week and presumably Prince Fielder in the future, the Jays become linked to these big name players by a couple sources, then those sources talk to other sources and soon enough everybody knows. Once that situation comes about we end up with all the Jays blogs (myself included) and radio shows talking up Darvish getting the fans all excited that maybe Rogers is going to open up their checkbooks and sign a big name player. The excitement itself is great, it creates interest in the Jays and brings new fans to the sport. 

The problem however is the after, as in what happens after we find out that often the Jays aren't the ones getting the big name player, they're the team waiting on the side in rebuilding mode. Granted the rebuilding part is good, it means the Jays are trying to create a contender for years to come, a statement the Blue Jays front office stands by, but if the current process is potentially turning away fans, doesn't there need to be change?

It is a debatable point as on one side you would think that to win the Jays need to make trades and that often requires privacy. But on the other and to win the Jays also need money and fans and by doing what they're doing they are turning fans away. We always hear the sentiment that when the Jays start winning the fans will come back to the games, but could the Jays be digging themselves into a hole they can't get out of?

While listening to Jays Talk with Mike Wilner shortly after the Darvish announcement you start to hear what the casual fans think. As flawed as some of their opinions may be, they still make  up a majority percentage of the fan base and will have a large opinion as such. On the same show another point is brought up about how the Jays never led anyone on during the Darvish process and that is the same thing you can say about any negotiations, because the Jays simply don't say anything and that is precisely the problem. They don't even say when they aren't interested in players because even if they don't like a player it could possibly taint future negotiations.

In thought that seems like a good idea because the Jays help themselves by not tainting player negotiations and help fans by not leading them on. The problem is that in practice being that by not saying anything rather than not leading fans on, instead the Jays leave it up to a whole bunch of reports from "anonymous sources" to dictate the Blue Jays front office's views on players. The Jays give their fans really no parameters as to what their interests in players or even types of players are.

With all that said don't take this as me trashing the Blue Jays front office, I don't mind the current system and I like the direction the Jays are taking. But something to think about with the current system is the toll that the fan base is taking. Anyways, since the Jays now won't get the chance to sign Darvish, here's to hoping they have a great rest of the offseason.

Yu the Answer?

Photo by Keith Fujimoto licensed
by Creative Commons 2.0

This Article is a Continuation of a FanPost on Bluebird Banter if you haven't seen that you can view it here.

After three straight offseasons in which there was great speculation as to whether or not Yu Davish will, it seems like this year it will finally happen. With that said there is no doubt in anyones mind that Yu Darvish will be probably the best prospect to hail from Japan in a while, and the attention that he is getting from major league teams is definitely warranted. He is highly projectable at 6' 5" 216 lbs and would be the tallest Japanese import player ever from the NPB. To go along with the projectability Darvish holds electrifying stuff with a fastball that can reach 96 and sits around 92, a slider that is said to be absolutely nasty, as well as a curveball, changeup, and forkball that are all supposedly solid pitches.

The stats Darvish has put out in the NPB definitely backs up the stuff.

As you can see Darvish has absolutely lit up the NPB this year and looking at his past stats we can see that he has consistently improved year to year with career numbers this year that include a 1.49 ERA, a 1.62 FIP, a 10.5 K/9, a 1.41 BB/9 all to go along with an average of 8 1/3 innings per start. These numbers are absolutely ridiculous and quite possibly the best ever in the NPB, at least for a starter who is still only 25. 

When MLB fans are making an opinion on whether or not they want there team to sign Darvish they are basing it mostly off the fact that Japanese ballplayers haven't always historically been able to translate well over to the MLB. Specifically fingers are pointed at the man who was the biggest post in NPB history, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Of course we all know of Dice-K as the overpaid oft-injured #4 starter for the Red Sox and rightly so, but that doesn't mean in any way that Darvish and Dice-K should be seriously compared to each other. Darvish and Dice-K are completely different, they have different injury histories and much different stats and stuff and in the end Darvish is just flat out better and more predictable than Dice-K.

Regarding the injury history, during his time in the NPB Daisuke Matsuzaka was not necessarily an injury prone player, but he did have a couple seasons in which he missed significant time. One season in particular was during the 2002 season in which Dice-K only pitched 73. 3 innings due to nagging injuries throughout the season. Another little tid bit of information was that prior to that injury filled season Dice-K had pitched 240 innings for the Seibu Lions, an absolutely ridiculous number these days for a guy who was only in his third season in the big leagues and who at the time was only 20 years of age. In the MLB at that time even top prospects are throwing only at the very most 180 innings and Dice-K beat that by 60 innings. This fact that Dice-K pitched 240 innings at 20 and also that he pitched 180 innings in the NPB at age 18 are often reasons that are pointed to, to explain the injury filled 2002 season as well as the injuries that have incurred while within the Red Sox organization. 

Whether it is true or not is unknown at least by the fans, but what is encouraging is that by looking at Darvish's IP numbers you can see that he was more eased in to the league than Matsuzaka was. Darvish's the innings numbers in his first three years are 94.1, 149.2, and 207.2 innings pitched. Definitely more promising than the 180, 167,  and 240 innings pitched that Dice-K had in his first three years in the NPB. As well Darvish unlike Matsuzaka has avoided any major injuries while pitching in the NPB, and was not taken off the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters roster for injury until 2009, which was his fifth season with the team. The team only classified the injury as "shoulder fatigue" and soon after being removed from the roster Darvish was reinstated and eventually got back to his former self.

Looking at the stats it doesn't even compare between Darvish and Matsuzaka. Yu Darvish holds a lower NPB career ERA and FIP by more than half a run and his career K/9 may not be higher than Matsuzaka, but Yu has been consistently improving year after year, which has culminated with a sweet 10.5 K/9, a level Dice-K never reached. As well when you bring back the projectability factor, it seems pretty safe to say that Darvish is headed for a brighter future then Dice-K, who at the time of signing some were calling a future ace in the MLB. Obviously the "future ace" tag wasn't exactly warranted for Dice-K but for Yu Darvish it is safe to say that it is at least a very good possibility.

Now that we know Darvish is good it brings us to the question and possibility of Darvish becoming a Jay. The Blue Jays obviously need top end pitching and Yu Darvish could be the risk and reward that the Jays are looking for. Earlier in the year it was reported that Anthopolous was over in Japan scouting Darvish and recently Blue Jays President and CEO Paul Beeston was interviewed by the Toronto Star's Richard Griffin in an article seen here.

In the interview Richard Griffin asks Paul Beeston about the possibility of a Darvish signing and the potential marketing possibilities to the asian community in the GTA. Beeston's response showed that he was somewhat holding back on us, but he did say, "I think those people at Rogers who never heard of him before, now know this player is in existence." To me this means that at least the Jays have done due discussion on the possibility of a signing, which is evident by AA's trip to Japan as well as the fact that ownership has been talked to about him, but past that it is hard to tell. You might infer that because Beeston didn't really want to comment on the particular subject that the Jays may be taking a shot at Yu Darvish as a serious consideration, but you could also just say that Beeston probably wouldn't want to talk about it to change any potential postings and contract negotiations.

In the end we will see the outcome, but with the scouting and Beeston's comments to me at least it seems like the Jays are putting heavy consideration into it. If the Jays are willing to buck up the money now, then they may see Darvish become an ace of the staff, but they also run the risk of getting another #3 starter. With the projected $100 million plus investment that it would take to acquire Darvish, which includes the posting fee and the contract, it seems like it would be a heavy risk. Though as we have seen with Anthopolous at the helm it seems like the Jays aren't afraid to take risks as long as they are smart risks (See Jose Bautista's Contract). I would love to see the Jays take a chance at Darvish, but with the evident possibility of high posting fees put out by both the Red Sox and Yankees it would seem like a slim chance that the Jays end up with Darvish, but in the off chance that they do we can only hope he lives up to expectations, unlike the last great Japanese import.