Big Papi could bring Big Return

Photo by Keith Allison licensed by Creative Commons

With news coming out today regarding impending free agent David Ortiz and the Blue Jays, it has got a lot of people in Toronto talking about Big Papi as a possibility in Toronto. He's big, he's friendly, and he is exactly what Toronto needs, that big left handed bat. He has the obvious connections to the Jays with John Farrell having been the pitching coach over in Boston and Jose Bautista being among his best friends in the MLB, which only betters the odds of dealing getting done. Still, Ortiz may not be that true marquee free agent that many Toronto fans are looking for, but if the Jays can't or won't get a Fielder or Pujols, Ortiz is a very nice backup option. He has the potential to be as good a hitter, will command a much better contract (for the Jays), and could end up being the better long term option.

This year Ortiz took a big step up in his production after a couple lackluster seasons with the Red Sox. He went from 0.3 fWAR and 2.6 fWAR seasons in '09 and '10 to a vintage Ortiz 4.2 fWAR season. That number is only ~1 win behind Fielder and ~2-4 wins behind Pujols depending on your thoughts on him going forward. Added on to that with Fielder and Pujols you get a little more certainty of production as they have put up fairly consistently good numbers over the past three years, but the difference that you get between Ortiz and the other two players is good, but is not worth the extra $10 million dollars in the average annual salary that it will take to sign one of the two.

Obviously Ortiz isn't and won't be of the same calibre a player as Pujols or Fielder, but the length and value that the Jays will get out of a contract with Ortiz makes him much more appealing. What we do know is that Pujols is pushing for a 10 year $300 million deal and Fielder is looking to beat Mark Teixeira's 8 year $180 million deal with the Yankees, either of those guys could become an albatross contract for the Blue Jays. On the other hand Ortiz is looking for a much more reasonable 3 year offer at an average annual value of a third of what Pujols is asking for. The added benefit of a possible Ortiz signing is that if he is only signed for those two years then the Blue Jays would be able to make a serious run at Joey Votto when he is a free agent in 2014. Votto being a player that the Jays have coveted for a while and would likely make a run at if they didn't have another highly paid first basemen, such as Fielder or Pujols.

Some Jays fans are pointing to Frank Thomas as a comparable for a possible Ortiz signing and they are right there is a few similarities. Both were seeking two year contracts and both are DHs at this point in their careers, but the similarities end there. First when Thomas signed his contract with the Jays he was 39 and right now Ortiz is only 36. Second when the Jays signed Thomas he was just coming off a good year, but for him a good year meant only a 2.7 fWAR. That 2.7fWAR is roughly the same as Ortiz's lead-up season and 1 and half wins away from Papi's WAR this year. Thus you can in no way compare the two players, it is a situation to situation basis and is really no different from comparing Darvish to Dice-K, it can't be done.

Soon enough we will see what really happens with Ortiz as the offseason officially commences at 12:00 AM on Sunday, but it seems like a reasonable belief that the Jays will at least be in on Ortiz. He may cost a first round pick by that time, but the Jays have two first rounders in 2012 and can easily get first round value out of any of their picks in the first 3 rounds barring any changes to the CBA. I'd like to see the Jays take a shot at Ortiz, he'd be an excellent stop gap while the Jays young players develop and gives them a shot at Votto in 2014. It would be a "win now" move to many of the Jays fans asking for such and would certainly shut many of them up for the foreseeable future. It is a win-win-win move and would be well responded by this Jays fan and hopefully many others feel the same.

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Thank You Adam Wainwright

Photo by Herkie licensed under Creative Commons

As most all of you know yesterday the Blue Jays acquired a certain Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals for essentially Mark Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor, Zach Stewart, and Corey Patterson. Your first reaction is probably somewhere along the lines of why would the Jays give away so many solid players for only one guy who isn't even a starter.

Naw I'm just kidding you I have the same reaction as many others in praising the Silent Assassin for the use of his Jedi Mind Tricks towards the betterment of this team (Although if you are looking for some more laughs click this link --> TSN Colby Rasmus Trade Analysis and read the Jays bashing in the comments from all the hockey fans who didn't even know Colby before the trade).

Because we all know the conversation probably went something like this....

(AA brings two fingers across Mozeliak's face)

AA: These are not the relievers you are looking for

JM: These are not the relievers I am looking for

AA: You would like two 2012 free agents, a AAAA player and Scrabble for your bench warmer Colby Rasmus

JM: I would like two 2012 free agents, a AAAA player and Scrabble for my bench warmer Colby Rasmus

AA: Yes you are getting it now, just announce it to the press

JM: Yes, master

And there you have it Colby Rasmus becomes a Blue Jay.

Even though Anthopolous went to great lengths to acquire us our future center fielder, I think who us Jays fans really need to thank is a certain Adam Wainwright for giving us the chance to acquire such a talented young player  

Yes, Wainwright the 2010 Cy Young candidate who injured his arm and required Tommy John Surgery in this year's offseason. It seems like many people have forgot about him, but he was not only predicted to yet again be the ace for the Cards, but also another possible Cy Young candidate. So then to go from him to Kyle McLellan was a big let down for both the team and its fans. Though it was a bad situation it was only made worse when Albert Pujols decided to stop acting like Albert Pujols, even if he is starting to come around. 

The combination of these two things meant that the Cardinals were almost forced into a situation that would see them acquire another #3 starter to complement the unlikely performances of Carpenter, Lohse, and Garcia. This is due to the fact that the Cardinals are in essentially a three team race with America's Team and the Brewers plus there is the Reds still kicking around. Had the Cardinals had Wainwright and his extra 3-5 wins over McLellan than the Cards could have probably kept up with Rasmus' struggles and not have left themselves with a situation where they had to trade him away for another pitcher.

But no luckily for us with the whole Albert Pujols contract situation, the Cards are going all in this year, that means doing whatever necessary to get that pennant (Even if they are far away from the Giants, Phillies, and Braves). 

Granted TLR was trashing Colby in the media and talking about how he didn't listen to coaches and what not, which definitely helped to lower Colby's price and almost force the trading of Colby Rasmus. But even then that was no reason for Mozeliak to go selling, La Russa had a couple years left  You know what they say one man's trash is another man's treasure and in this case the trash was very cheap. 

So full credit to Alex and his genius negotiating, but really the true heros in Bluebird Land are Adam Wainwright and Tony La Russa, thus I crown both of thee honorary Blue Jays, even if La Russa wouldn't be allowed across the border, which we can only hope is the same for another Tony.

In AA We Trust