Thinking Blue: Weekly Recap - April 23rd

Courtesy of Daylife via Reuters Pictures

After a couple of weeks of a few lucky wins, it looks like the Blue Jays are getting back in the swing of things. Edwin is hitting, KJ is hitting, Colby is hitting, and even the so called slumping Bautista is recovering from early season troubles. Furthermore after yesterday's win against the Royals the Jays sit now atop the AL East tied with the Yankees for first place.

These next couple of weeks look to be pretty crucial in establishing the standings in the early goings. Both the OriLoLes, who haven't been so LoL worthy thus far, and the Rays are only a half game back of the Jays and Yankees. Of course the Red Sox and all of their beer and chicken issues are sitting firm in last place, and despite their atrocious relief pitching and the pessimistic beliefs of Red Sox fans everywhere they are still a force to be reckoned with in the AL East.

Hutch's First Big League Start
As I'm sure most of you saw, Drew Hutchison (Yes, that's H-u-t-c-h-i-s-o-n with one N) made a start for the Blue Jays on Saturday. Yes, the Blue Jays Top 10 prospect (and Top 100 MLB Prospect if you ask Keith Law) took to the mound in a duel against Luis Mendoza. Unfortunately I wasn't able to catch his entire outing as I missed the beginning, but from what I saw he looked like he held his own.

His line on the night didn't end up being exactly what you'd like to see. He gave up 5 runs over 5 1/3 innings and two home runs. To go along with that Hutchison walked 3 batters and hit one more. On the surface that doesn't look so great for a pitcher's debut, but Hutch is only 21 and most pitchers don't produce Kyle Drabek like debuts. Besides Hutchison did end up striking out 4 over the 5 1/3 innings and got the win, if thats the sort of thing you care about (I don't).

The outing wasn't the most impressive thing in the world, but I also wasn't disappointed. Again, he's still only 21 and will be for another 4 months, he was just called up from AA and its his first start in the majors. Not to excuse the performance, but occasionally that kind of pressure can be pretty daunting. Before we make any rash decisions or evaluations on Hutch lets at least see another start of his, an opportunity I hope the Jays give him.

P.S. If you want a more In-Depth Analysis of Hutch's first start, the kind of thing I have been known to do from time to time, you can check out MjwW's FanPost over at Bluebird Banter where he excellently broke down the start using Pitch F/X numbers.

Santos to the DL
One week after coming back from the birth of his first child, Sergio Santos is on the 15 day DL for Shoulder Inflammation as reported by @SNBarryDavis. This isn't exactly the news you want to hear from your favourite team, but it doesn't project to be a huge pressing issue. If you assume Santos is as good as he was last year over the course of this season, you lose only a little more than 0.1 WAR off the season total, which in the grand scheme of things is a relatively small number.

In the meantime the Jays have thrust "Capital C Closer" Francisco Cordero into the closer role. Cordero isn't as good as Santos, but having him as your closer isn't the worst thing in the world. He has a declining skill set, which I have outlined before, but he should be fine in the role for 15 days. However, one thing I fear with Cordero is if he actually performs "well" in his little stint in the 9th inning role, there may be pressure to keep him there.

Santos hasn't been great so far this season, but it has been an extremely small sample. Nonetheless if Cordero performs well, I could easily see the fans and the media for that matter building the narrative that Cordero needs to be in that closer role citing Santos' two blown saves in this short season. Of course I don't care about blown saves, but the Toronto media, well they sure seem to.


Colby Haters Be Gone
Colby Rasmus is always going to be easy pickin's as an entity that everyone can throw their anger at. He is the inevitable scapegoat, he is athletic and graceful both on the field and at the plate and that has gotten him the J.D. Drew treatment.

Nonetheless Colby has done his very best to silence his naysayers, which seemed to be more than half of the fan base after last year's debacle. After a terrible showing last season following his transition from NL to AL, St. Louis to Toronto, and La Russa to Freedom, Rasmus definitely wasn't helping himself in the fan appreciation department.

People called him lazy, people called the trade stupid, but people say a lot of things. Well at least they did.

Nowadays with Colby having hit 3 home runs thus far with an OBP of .321 all good for a 120 wRC+, people aren't saying a lot. These "people" have seemed to have been silenced by Colby's admittedly fantastic performance both at the plate and in center field.

He is not hitting to the level that he did in 2010, his wRC+ is 9 points lower, but his defense is being rated better by the always confusing UZR. This has put him on pace for a 5.4 fWAR season. That pace likely won't continue, but there is a chance that it very well could. Rasmus has the potential for that type of season, it will be interesting to see if he has that in him.

He's hitting that triple, double, single, that smooth home run, he is fire burning in the outfield and quickly sliding his way right back into Toronto fan's hearts...for the time being. #Colby2012

 


Side Note: Does anyone else see the resemblance?

Courtesy of Daylife via AP Photo and Getty Images

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

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How Not to Fulfill the Prophecy

Snider sliding his way to Vegas
Photo courtesy of Daylife via AP Photo

I like Alex Anthopoulos, I think he's a great mind and has done great things to turn this club around from where it was going three years ago. Throughout his process his often stated prophecy has been to have 'All-Stars at every position' and that is a concept that I'm sure everyone can agree with.

He has made great efforts to fulfill said goal by acquiring players like Yunel Escobar, Brett Lawrire, and Colby Rasmus some of which have already become what was expected of them. However in recent execution of the same goal Anthopoulos and the Jays decided to demote Travis Snider to AAA, presumably in favour of Eric Thames in LF thereby hindering Anthopoulos' great vision.

I agree with most of what Anthopoulos has done and I'm guessing that I will continue to do so with his moves in the future. However the one thing I'll never understand is his constant misuse of Snider's presumed abilities. Last year I didn't agree with Snider's demotion, but I gave Anthopoulos the benefit of a doubt when he said that Snider needed to 'work on his swing'. This time around again, I disagree with the Jays' handling of Travis, but at this point I really don't understand what could possibly be gained from playing Thames rather than Snider.

As I previously mentioned Anthopoulos has said that he wants an All-Star at every position and I fail to see how Thames gives them that chance. In his 3 years in the Blue Jays minor leagues he was never put on any Blue Jays Top 10 list be it from Baseball America, Keith Law, or Kevin Goldstein, whereas Snider was atop each and every list a multitude of times.

In his 2011 Blue Jays Top 11 prospects Kevin Goldstein said, "As of now this spot (No. 12) could be low, because [Eric Thames] could be a solid everyday, corner outfielder." This same sentiment seems to be similar to that of many other prospect mavens, but I fail to see how in that sentence or any other evaluation of Eric Thames it expresses that he could be an All-Star. He was never in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects and he broke in to the majors at 24, older than the average All-Star would have. Furthermore even when Thames did break into the majors he didn't show any indication that he had future All-Star potential.

As evidenced by his wRC+, Thames was 8% better than the average MLB hitter, but with terribly below average defense. This resulted in a good, but not All-Star potential-esque 0.9 fWAR. If you take that number and pro rate it over 600 plate appearances it would still only be 1.4 WAR. From there if you really believe Thames could be that much better, you could raise the production by 50% and get to a 2.1 WAR. That looks awfully small when you contrast that with the approximate 4.0+ WAR that it takes to be an All-Star.

To obtain that level of excellence Thames would have to perform 185% better than he did in 2011 over 600 plate appearances. Meaning that if you assume that his fielding and baserunning doesn't change he would have to hit as good as Curtis Granderson did last year to be an All-Star. Then even if you want to assume that Thames becomes average defensively in LF he would have to hit as good as Carlos Gonzalez did last year.

Snider, being the above average defender would still have to hit to a similar level, but the underlying point is that Snider has the potential to do so. Scouts have seen it in him, they saw it coming out of the draft, they saw it in his rookie season, and they even saw it last year.

Snider was the frickin' 6th best prospect in baseball at one point, Thames has been criticized every step of the way. Thames performed well last year when called up at age 24, but Snider performed similarly in past years at a younger age.

Do you think that if given the chance the White Sox would send Adam Dunn down to AAA because he 'didn't perform well enough' in 2011. No they would and will continue to play him, not only because he is owed a lot of money, but he has shown that he is a good ball player and just had a bad year. Travis may not be as distinguished a ball player as Dunn, but he did hit to around a league average level in his time in the majors with the potential for much more.

Thames may give the Jays a better chance at the playoffs in 2012, but Snider gives them a chance at that 'All-Stars at every position dream' as well as a shot at a World Series. I don't know about you, but I'm a patient fan and if winning a World Series or even a playoff series for that matter means waiting, I will. I'd rather that than watch the Jays go all in on one playoff run.

Anthopoulos has always said that his goal is create dynasty not a playoff team, which is why I really don't understand this move. Snider has shown what he can do in AAA, but hasn't been given the chance to do the same in the majors (Thanks Cito!). AA wants a team that can win and win for a while and I fail to see how playing Thames over Snider in a rebuilding year gives the Jays the best chance to do that. Thames has shown us just about the peak of his production, Snider still has room to grow.

Of course Snider could still turn in to that bust player, but at the very least give him the chance to fail just as many have been given before him. It would be terrible to see Snider leave and be the player he could always be for another team, now is the time to make the right choice #FreeSnider.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball America , Baseball Prospectus, ESPN

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Projecting Performance: Outfield

Photos Courtesy of DayLIfe via Reuters Pictures and AP Photo

Projecting Performance is a series outlining each position of the Blue Jays roster with my thoughts on who should play the position and how well I expect them to perform for the 2012 season. The Starting Rotation piece is already posted and the Infield post will come in subsequent weeks. 

In 2011 the Blue Jays had quite a few different players patrolling the outfield, some individuals worse than others *cough* Corey Patterson *cough*, but in the end it ended up being okay. To start the year they may have had Rajai Davis pencilled in as a starter, and they may have given a 31 year old Corey Patterson 341 plate appearances (Yes, that many), but as the year wore on things became somewhat clearer.

For one there is really no chance that Bautista ever goes back to 3B with Brett Lawrie now patrolling the hot corner and there's little to no chance that Rajai Davis is the starting CF for the Blue Jays as they now have their center fielder for the time being in Colby Rasmus. It may not be the strongest outfield having major questions with Colby Rasmus' bat as well as with who will take hold of the starting LF spot, but there's no question that it is an outfield with upside.

Jose Bautista
You would think starting the post off with the current Blue Jays superstar would be easy, wouldn't you? I mean how much could there be to talk about with a guy who has hit 18 more home runs than anyone else in the MLB over the past two years and has the league lead in fWAR over that same time period. The answer could be quite a bit actually.

Last year the questions about Bautista revolved around whether he could sustain the production he had in his 2010 season after having been a bench player the whole rest of his career. This year a question that doesn't seem to be getting any publicity is how long can Jose Bautista sustain his current production.

Sure his tools are not too conducive to the affects of aging, but he is beginning to get past his prime. He may not fall off a cliff ala Cecil Fielder, but he should at least be regressing away from the 8.3 fWAR in 2011, shouldn't he? There may not be any true statistical evidence that suggests he would be worse in 2012 than he was in 2011, but it is likely that his fielding will get worse as he ages as well as his speed, which will likely gradually effect Bautista's game.

Of course I'm mostly playing devil's advocate here because with Bautista there really isn't too much question. He was questioned in 2010 and he proved to be better in 2011.

The Verdict:
Jose Bautista has been gift from the heavens for the Blue Jays. Without him the Jays likely wouldn't have the Thames/Snider LF problem, but playoff hopes would also be a distant memory. With that said Bautista is a great player, one of the best in the game right now, but he is beginning to age past his prime and his best years should thoretically be behind him. I say theoretically because really who knows with Bautista. No one predicted he would lead the league in home runs in 2010 and no one predicted he would actually be better in 2011. With that said I expect some regression back to his 2010 production, but nonetheless he is still very good.

WAR Prediction: 6.8

Colby Rasmus
Last year Colby had a lot of issues. With coaching, with hitting, with adjusting. Because of these perceived issues and the fact that Rasmus had an almost sub .200 OBP (among other things) in his time with the Jays has some of the common fans shunning him and his supposed "lackadaisical" attitude. On the other hand as evidenced by the poll on this site, many of you think Rasmus will in a sense return to form in 2012. I tend to think the same.

As is with many of the Blue Jays players he has the talent, just didn't have the production, well in 2011 at least. However in 2010 he put up the 3rd highest wOBA among center fielders and hit 23 home runs all at the ripe ole age of 24. Over at Getting Blanked Dustin Parkes did point out a couple flaws in Rasmus' game, but they seemed to be mainly mechanical and nothing that couldn't be too hard to fix. Especially if you believe that his dad was creating problems in St. Louis, because Colby did recently state that he was trying to have less of his dad's influence in the training process.

The problem then with Colby Rasmus would seem to be that there is still a relatively large chance that he doesn't live up to expectations. In some sense he is unlike Snider because he has somewhat of a track record of success, but in the entire scheme of things they really aren't that different. Snider hasn't hit in the majors and therefore has a lot to prove, but he has a long track record of success at pretty much every level of the minors. Colby has hit in the majors, but it was two years ago and last year he had the 2nd worst wOBA among center fielders in the MLB meaning he is also going to have a lot to prove in 2012.

The Verdict:
Yes, Colby Rasmus has talent and yes he has transformed talent in to production in the big leagues. As I said before Parkes pointed out a few key flaws in Rasmus' swing, even if he has the talent it doen't mean it will necesarily translate into production until his swing, among other things, is fixed. As well in terms of obtaining a higher WAR it is dependent on his defensive stats. He more than passes the eye test, but the advanced defensive metrics, which can be unreliable, don't seem to like him too much. Despite all that, like you readers, Colby is one player who I'm fairly confident of in 2012.

WAR Prediction: 3.1

Travis Snider
Of all the high upside players the Blue Jays have on their current roster, Snider could be the cream of the crop. He's a former No. 6 overall prospect as according to Baseball America and a guy who Dan Szymborski lists in his "Finding the Next Bautista" article (Insider Req'd). Like many Jays, he has the talent, now its time for the production.

People often talk about how he hasn't produced in the majors, but when you look at it he really hasn't been given the chance. Whether it was being benched by Gaston or being demoted to AAA, both situations have prevented Snider from ever being given more than 320 plate appearances in a single season. On the flipside of things, Snider has been given what seems to be a substantial No. of plate appearances with a total of 877 over the past four years. Though as I expressed in my Snider post about a month ago, when you compare the playing time Snider was given to that of other former top outfield prospects you find that Snider was given the third least number of plate appearances in the first three years of the player's career of any top 20 outfield prospects in the past decade.

That right there is why, in my opinion, Snider needs to be given the piece of mind that he has the LF job. The real time to do that was last year when the Jays were farther away from contention and when the alternative was a 31 year old Corey Patterson. Now the Jays obviously have another young outfielder in Eric Thames, but if you ask just about any talent evaluator they will tell you Snider has the upside. He may not be better in 2011, but the upside is undeniable.

The Verdict:
On seemingly every chance he has, Anthopoulos continually states that he is trying to build sustainable success. The key to sustainable success and something Anthopoulos himself has mentioned is having All-Stars at every position. To create the most likely chance of that happening, one player needs to be playing, that player is Travis Snider. It seems so cliché to say, but really what Snider needs the most is playing time. He has shown he can hit in the minors, but really hasn't been given a shot in the majors. Given playing time I'd expect Snider to produce better than his 2010 season, but not at an All-Star level, just yet. All this is exactly why I hope for Snider to be the Opening Day left fielder, unfortunately I don't see it happening in 2012, which is the reasoning for my lower WAR prediction. 


WAR Prediction: 1.0


Eric Thames
Thus far through Spring Training it has seemed that publicly the Blue Jays favour Eric Thames, with Anthopoulos having said that "Eric [was] the frontrunner going in" and on multiple occasions having referenced what Thames did in 2011 as reason for him starting in 2012. At times I really don't understand this infatuation with Eric Thames. Maybe it's the fact that Farrell decided to hit in him in the No. 2 spot last year or just because he looked like a young Juan Rivera in left field, but I don't really like what Thames has to offer.

He was a slightly above league average hitter in 2/3 of a season in 2011, but he was also god awful defender in left field, which resulted in a 0.9 fWAR. Seemingly the only advantage he has over Snider is that he has performed better in his major league time, but even that isn't entirely true. In less playing time in 2010 Travis Snider actually outdid Thames' 2011 season and at the ripe age of 22 as well.

Beyond that on TSN Radio, Keith Law noted that, "Thames is a mistake hitter," and in a ESPN Chat he stated that, "Thames has a part-timer ceiling." For these reasons and many more it really seems to me that 2011 could be the highest level that he ever performs at. I know he supposedly has some revamped approach and he was the hype of the Blue Jays blogosphere when this picture was released, but for whatever reason I don't buy it. Assuming that he doesn't progress much in 2012, he really isn't the type of player that take you to the playoffs in the AL East.

The Verdict:
Thames was not some fantastic hitter in 2011 and I don't buy it that he will somehow blossom in 2012. Nonetheless it seems to my dismay that the Jays will give him the starting LF spot. I don't think it's the right decision and I'd bet they will regret it down the road when prospects are graduating and there is no more time for the former top prospect, Travis Snider, to try to become what scouts predicted four years ago. In spite of that I don't expect Thames to be terrible and I'll guess he goes back to roughly the same production as in 201, only pro-rated over 600 PA.

WAR Prediction: 1.4

Look for Part 3 of Projecting Performance, which will be on the Blue Jays Infield, the post will likely come out sometime later this week. 


PS: I know I've been on a bit of a hiatus in the past couple of weeks, but I have quite a few article ideas before the season starts so you can expect those pretty soon.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, ESPN, TSN

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Extra Wild Card in 2012: What it Does and Doesn't Mean to the Blue Jays

It was recently reported by Ken Rosenthal that an extra wild card team is all but done in being added for the 2012 MLB season. My initial reactions were something along the lines of oh my god and were not unlike the opening of that first present on Christmas morning as a child. You feel a sense of excitement and that rush of new things until you realize you just opened that present from Grandma with only socks inside, thanks Grandma. In this case it seems somewhat similar. On one hand you have the right to be pretty damn excited that your favourite team is one step closer to the playoffs, but on the other hand in the grand scheme of things does it really make that much of a difference.

Of course the adding of an extra wild card spot for 2012 is a fantastic addition to the Blue Jays playoff chances, but it seems like some are still forgetting about the other potentially unsurpassable bumps in the road. For one the Blue Jays play in the always tough AL East, but also in the incredibly difficult American League and are the Blue Jays really ready to take that next step, even with an extra wild card team.

In the East you always have the big three in the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Rays. In the Central you have the now Fielderful Tigers. Last, but not least in the West you have the Rangers and the now playoff ready Angels.

In the old scenario it looked almost impossible for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs in 2012 without significant leaps and bounds taken by multiple players on the team because the Jays would have had to pass two of the beasts of the east.  Now in the new scenario it looks more likely that they will have make the playoffs but what you have to realize is that instead of having to overtake two of the beasts in the east, the Jays will have to overcome one, but also likely one of the Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels and they aren't half bad either.

The Rangers, well they're the Rangers, not only have they been the American League representative in the World Series for back to back years, but they also got arguably the best pitcher on the market outside of C.C. Sabathia in Yu Darvish. The Angels, usually an afterthought in wild card consideration, got not even arguably but instead thee best hitter on the market in Albert Pujols and then the second best free agent pitcher in C.J. Wilson. As well what many don't seem to realize the Angels are the same team that finished only 5 games out of a wild card spot.

Looking further into it Replacement Level Yankees who run the CAIRO projection system ran a couple of projected standings using both their system as well as that of Tom Tango who runs the Marcel system. Using the CAIRO projection system they projected the Blue Jays 2012 record to be 78-84 and gave them a 4.1% chance of making the playoffs, which includes a 2.6% increase from the added second wild card spot. In another post using the Marcel projection system they projected the Jays record to be the exact same as 2011 at 81-81 and gave them a 16.7% chance of making the playoffs, which includes a pretty substantial 6.8% jump from the added wild card spot.

These two numbers may seem at the very least somewhat promising, but the two posts also include a couple playoff chance percentages for some of the competitors. CAIRO puts the playoff chances of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays at anywhere from 64.4% for the Rays to a whopping 84.8% for the Yanks and Marcel similarly has the percentages at anywhere from 57.1% for the Rays to 76.0% for the Yankees. At the lowest point the next best team in the AL East, the Rays, still has a 3 times better chance to make the playoffs than your team and mine the Toronto Blue Jays.

To beat the next best team in the CAIRO projected wild card standings the Jays would have to somehow gain another 13 wins beyond CAIRO's Blue Jays projections, which aren't too pessimistic. Even to beat the next best team in the Marcel projected standings, which have the Blue Jays being much better in 2012 than the CAIRO system, the Jays would somehow need to muster up another 6 wins.

That number may not seem like a whole lot, but for the Jays to increase their win total by 6 wins that would have to mean something along the lines of Colby Rasmus returning to 2010 form and Travis Snider finally becoming what he could now realistically be. That is a lot to happen and even that's no guarantee that the Jays would make the playoffs because anything could happen with the other three teams fighting for the two playoff spots.

In the end the reality is with a still improving team and an unbalanced schedule for the 2012 season it doesn't seem like the added wild card spot will give the Jays the extra push they need. It may make you and I as fans feel better about the Blue Jays and it will surely sell some extra tickets. But unfortunately it isn't as if the Jays only have to overcome one one great team instead of two, all that seems to have happened is that one less beast of the east has been transferred to having to beat one of the best in the west.

This doesn't mean you shouldn't be excited for the 2012 season because the Jays will still have a very exciting team and a player with 80 grade watchability in Brett Lawrie. If anything it should just make you more excited for what is to come in 2013 and beyond when the Blue Jays sustained success really figures to begin. And if you're really a believer be excited for 2012 and really think the Jays can make the playoffs don't let me or any other blogger suppress that, because hey stranger things have happened.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Replacement Level Yankees, FOX Sports

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Breaking Down Adam Lind

Courtesy of Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

If you have been on the site in the past couple of weeks you may have noticed the poll in the sidebar asking you fans which player you think will most likely have a bounce back season in 2012 with the options being Travis Snider, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, and Kyle Drabek. As well you also may know a couple of weeks ago I mused about Travis Snider and what the future may hold for such a peculiar player. To continue on in the list this week the post will go over Adam Lind and what the future may hold for him.

Before last year Adam Lind was the exact type of player both Blue Jays fans and fantasy baseball gurus alike expected to make a comeback performance. From a fantasy perspective that comeback performance was definitely prevalent with Lind having been among the leagues elite in terms of RBIs before his back injury that occurred in May, but on a hitting level did Lind really start the year strong?

His RBI total may make you think otherwise, but according to wRC+ Lind wasn't even an above average hitter in April. Instead he hit to a 99 wRC+ (average is 100) and was even below the likes of Corey Patterson (Ugh). The RBI total was instead a result of the fact that the hitter in front of Lind at that point, Jose Bautista, was the best hitter in the league and was getting on base more than 50% of the time. If I was in Lind's position, I bet even I could have gotten a few RBIs.

Once you look at the season as whole it really doesn't become any more impressive. Yes, Lind did up his home run total to 26, but he also he also produced a sub .300 OBP and an fWAR that ranked 4th last among qualified first basemen. As you can plainly see those are not good numbers and they probably don't warrant any praise. Instead all the 2011 season has done is make the 2009 season seem more of an outlier and the 2012 season that much more difficult to project.

For starters where does one lay the blame for the lack of production. Obviously Lind hasn't gotten back to the 35 home runs he hit in 2009, nor has he reached his .305 batting average, but most importantly Lind hasn't reached the .370 OBP and 8.9 BB% that he had in 2009. Since that wondrous year Lind hasn't mustered enough to get within 75 points of that OBP and his best walk rate is just a little more than half of his 2009 numbers.

What is the reason for this? A change in approach? Maybe. Poor hitting skills? Another possibility, but most interestingly though is that when looking at some of the Pitch F/X plate discipline stats on Lind's FanGraphs page one thing that stood out was Lind's O-Swing%. Last year his O-Swing% had a small uptick to 35.9%, which is roughly a couple percent above his 2010 stats and quite a bit above his 2009 ones and that is precisely where the concern lies.

In comparison, in 2009 Lind's O-Swing% was the lowest of his career and by a pretty wide margin. That year Lind managed to resist many outside pitches  and put up a 27.9 O-Swing%, a number that is more than 5% off his career average. For the pitches Lind did swing at outside the strike zone, he made contact with over 3/4 of them and put up a percentage that is again much better than his career average. Additionally in 2011 Lind posted the lowest Zone% of his career at 46.9%, essentially meaning pitchers are giving Lind more pitches outside the zone, but as shown with his O-Swing% he is still swinging at the pitches, that is never a good thing. The graphics below give you a better representation.

Pitches Lind swung at in 2009

Pitches Lind swung at in 201

The difference does not seem to be too large at first glance, but if you really look at the two graphics you can see the change between 2009 and 2011. In the 2009 graphic the pitches are more concentrated on the middle with fewer swings outside the zone, while on the other hand in the 2011 graphic the pitches swing at are less concentrated in the middle and more are outside the zone. More than anything you can see how Lind's batting eye has changed be it a result of approach or regression, they both end the same.

Specifically one thing though that is noticeable in the statistics is Lind's consistent decrease in pitches per plate appearance. In 2009 Lind saw an average of 4.03 pitches per plate appearance or P/PA. In 2010 that same number dropped to 3.81 and in 2011 it was a lowly 3.54, not a good trend. What I believe to be the reasoning behind the drop is a clear change in first pitch approach. Through some Pitch F/X calculations it was found that in 2009 Lind swung at 15.2% of first pitches, in 2010 that number almost doubled to 29.2% and in 2011 it remained for the most part unchanged at 28.2%.

In 2009 when Lind got more pitches thrown to him he was able to have more success because he could wait for the pitch he wanted, but in 2011 seeing less pitches did not afford him that luxury. More than anything what all of this alludes to is most likely one of two things, either Lind has been told to swing more at pitches he likes or he simply lacks the batting eye that he had in 2009. I'm willing to bet the its a combination of the two based on some of his contact rates and swing percentages, but whatever the case it will effect Lind going forward.

If Lind has the same batting eye and approach in 2012 that he has had the past two years you likely won't see too much improvement. The batting average will presumably come up a little from where it was in 2011 because his BABIP suggests he was at the least somewhat unlucky, but beyond that I don't know how you can expect more. Some people may tell you that Adam Lind was hindered by his back injury and that he will easily bounce back to form in 2012, but in 2010 Lind had little to no injury problems and still sucked and this year his best hitting month came the month after he got back from his injury.

In order for Lind to truly get back to his peak season he will have to more of what he did in 2009. That would include swinging at less pitches outside the zone, waiting for his pitch, regaining some opposite field power and much more. Those changes would presumably be able to propel Lind to great heights, but with the 2009 season being the only one in which Lind excelled at all three of those areas it isn't looking good for 2012.

Despite the objective evidence I'm sure you will still see some believers, but I'm not one of them. I'm also not one to suggest the Jays should have signed Pujols or Fielder to replace Lind, but when a certain Torontonian *cough* Joey Votto *cough* comes on the trade market or to free agency I'd bet an improving Jays team takes a shot at him. Until then I'm guessing we will have to live with an underachieving bat at a prime offensive position, with our only hope the prospect of obtaining Votto and Farrell's realization that Lind is not a #3 or #4 hitter.

Stat Definitions: FanGraphs Glossary

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Texas Leaguers, ESPN

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A Whole New World

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

What if...

What if the sky were orange, what if water were red, what if there was world peace, what if the Yankees moved to Timbuktoo.

These are all obviously examples of "what ifs", they describe a scenario in which is seemingly impossible to imagine ever happening. Just last season a "what if" in Jays nation, was what if the Blue Jays could trade away Vernon Wells? Well last offseason that "what if" was fulfilled as the Angels foolishly took Vernon Wells away from the Jays and now this offseason that "what if" that was fulfilled has led me to another what if. What if Vernon Wells had never been traded?

It seems like an odd proposition to think about as it will never be undone, but what is interesting about this trade is how much it effected not only the Blue Jays but the entire goings  of the entire 2011 season.

If Vernon Wells had never been traded, where would the Jays be. Would us fans be thinking about the possibility of signing a big name free agent? Would the Jays even be half as far in their rebuild process? The answer to both of these questions is probably no and the reasoning being that as some forget Vernon Wells was owed 86 million dollars between 2011-2014. Currently the payroll obligations for 2011 will be just over $50 million after arbitration. With Wells tacked on that number jumps up, closer to $75 million. Then the question becomes, can the Blue Jays front office realistically sell it to the fans and to Rogers that they need to go out and spend $20-$25 million on a guy and put the payroll up to and probably over $100 million for the 2012 season after the Blue Jays just finished 81-81. I'm not even sure Anthopolous could sell that idea to himself and he is the king of negotiation. 

Along with the lack of interest in big name free agent that would have come with Vernon Wells still on the roster, the Jays whole rebuilding process would have been set back at least a couple years. First off with Wells still on the roster the Jays would then have four left fielders and an even bigger logjam in the outfield. Second despite the fact that Anthopolous was long a proprietor of Rasmus prior to the mid season trade between the Jays and the Cardinals, it is hard to imagine Anthopolous acquiring Rasmus and adding what would be a 6th outfielder, even if he had the option to stuff Thames and Snider in the minors. To go along with that would have been the whole feel that the Jays would not have been on the upturn of their rebuild. It is a pretty fair statement as it is hard to imagine a team to be thought of on the upturn of a rebuild, when they are paying a guy $23 million dollars to be worth 3 wins above replacement at the most.

It probably would not changed Alex Anthopolous' philosophy or approach as he would go about his business the same whether the Jays had no albatross' versus if they had 5. What it does change is the outlook for fans and for others across the league. As Kevin Goldstein describes in one of his recent Up and In podcasts, the Blue Jays are now the flavour of the month, which is hard to see them being if they had an albatross contract dampening the outlook of the team. 

Take the Angels themselves for example, they have a bolstering farm system and if the not the best then the second best prospect in baseball in Mike Trout. Despite that you still hear that they are paying Vernon Wells $20+ million and Torii Hunter $17+ million rather than the positives with the team because in many cases it makes for a good story.

Getting back to the rest of the league had Vernon Wells not been traded? Would we have the same two teams in the World Series? Would those two teams even be in the World Series. It is an unusual thing, but the Blue Jays had a big influence on this years World Series matchup. There is 6 ex-Blue Jays (7 if you count Patterson) on the two World Series teams, most of which would not have been on the teams had Vernon Wells not been traded.

Starting with the Rangers, the Rangers currently have two ex-Blue Jays on their roster in Mike Napoli and Michael Young. Had Wells not been traded Michael Young still would have been there, but Napoli would not. With that said, Mike Napoli hasn't been stellar in the postseason, but he's been good and at times the difference maker. As well going off fWAR, had the Rangers not had Napoli furing the regular season, it's possible they would not have made the playoffs. This season Mike Napoli had a 5.6 fWAR, which means he contributed ≈ 5 wins to the Rangers. What it also means is that he took ≈ 5 wins away from the Angels. The final standing in the AL West had the Angels 10 wins out of 1st. So had the Angels kept Napoli, who knows, maybe its them in the World Series and not the Rangers.


Then with the Cardinals, they currently have four ex-Blue Jays on their playoff roster roster in Chris Carpenter, Edwin Jackson, Mark Rzepczynski, and Octavio Dotel. Like the Rangers had Wells not been traded the Cards would have had Carpenter, but likely not Jackson, Scrabble, or Dotel, and all three of these guys were key contributors to the Cards in their race to get to the playoffs and the run that they've had at the World Series. During their regular season Cards tenures the three players acquired in the Colby Rasmus trade produced a total of 2 fWAR (Jackson 0.7 fWAR, Scrabble 0.4 fWAR, Dotel 0.9 fWAR). Those two added wins were all the Cards needed to make the playoffs  as they beat out Atlanta by only a game. Now in the playoffs the key ROOGY performances by Dotel, the bullpen solidification by Rzepcznyski, and key starts by Jackson have all been vital in the playoff success of this team. 


Its amazing that when you look back at a single trade or single move that it seems like it only effects the two teams involved, but in truth it can effect so much more. That one single move between the Angels and the Blue Jays has just snowballed into something much bigger as it indirectly created this world series matchup. As well the snowballing will continue for the Blue Jays as they improve from dividends paid in the Vernon Wells trade. That one single moment has become for the Blue Jays an extra draft pick, a centerfielder of the future, and hope that things will get better for the Bluebirds. Three invaluable assets to the Blue Jays organization. 

Mr. Mustache vs. Senor Sideburns

At the beginning of the 2011 season Travis Snider was one of many sleeper picks in fantasy leagues and was predicted by many Jays fans to finally have a break out season, he was always a top prospect he just hadn't put it all together. The prior year in 2010 Travis Snider showed many improving skills such as his expected but unseen power, but his play was limited due to an injury which kept him out for a major part of the season. Despite his injury he still managed to be a slightly above average player with a 105 wRC+ in the 82 games that he played.

At the beginning of the 2011 season Eric Thames was a 24 year old who had just had a great season at AA New Hampshire. In 2010 he hit 27 home runs and had a .370 OBP, which was good for a .896 OPS a number that marked third in the Eastern League and ahead of such prospects as Anthony Rizzo, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Danny Espinosa . In that year he had good power, he hit for good average, but his defense still wasn't great and he wasn't thought to be a very toolsy player shown by his 7th round draft choice.

These two guys are obviously two very different players, but can also be considered one in the same. Both are young outfielders and both were candidates to be sent down to Vegas so that the Blue Jays could bring up Brett Lawrie. In the end the decision was to send Travis Snider down.

Analyzing the Demotion
To an uneducated Blue Jays fan it may have seemed like an obvious choice to send down Travis Snider since his 2011 slash line of .225/.269/.348 is far inferior to that of Eric Thames at .270/.313/.455. But Travis Snider is still the top prospect and the Jays have stated that they want him to be there everyday left fielder and many others believe the same. So for Alex Anthopolous it couldn't have been an easy decision to make.

If they wanted they could have benched Edwin Encarnacion and just put Thames at DH (where he really should be), but Edwin is on the verge of Type B status and we all know how much AA values those draft picks. If he's going to buy one then he will definitely send down Snider for one. Another possibility I could have seen would have been buying out Mark Teahen and then having both Snider and Thames share at bats in left field with both playing when EE gets the day off. It would seem to be a good option, but I guess Rogers didn't want to fully break the bank and buyout the 5.5 million that Mark Teahen still has on that horrid contract.

In the end I think that they made the wrong decision in sending down one of the two outfielders as they both deserved major league at bats. But if they had to choose one of the two it should have been Eric Thames Yes, Thames may be hitting better this season, but it isn't like the Blue Jays are contending this season and need the hot hitter. They are looking for 2012 and beyond and despite his hot hitting in both the minors and the majors Eric Thames doesn't seem to be the option. Who knows Travis Snider could very well become the next Corey Patterson, but then he could also become a superstar, he has the potential and Eric Thames just does not.

The only reasoning I could possibly see for sending down Thames over Snider is the possible backlash from Jays fans. Because the reasoning that they gave to "tweak" his swing just isn't enough. The first time Snider was sent down this year it was exactly the same thing and how did that work, well he actually hit worse with a .670 OPS prior to his demotion and a .522 after the call up. So if it wasn't working the first time then what would lead them to believe it would work this time. The answer is it probably won't, so then why not keep Snider on the big league team where he can work with Dwayne Murphy and the other coaches. The Jays have stated that they want him to be part of their future so why not take steps to do so, give the guy some major league at bats and have him for the future don't stuff him in the minors where he has shown he can't improve.

Looking into the Future
Obviously I would love to see both Thames and Snider do very well in their careers, but as we know not everyone works out. Thames in a sense has the advantage because he has a lot less expected of him from both the organization and knowledgeable Jays fans because he is some 7th round miracle, where as Travis is the 1st round top prospect who has yet to pan out.

I would like to see the Jays keep the both of them past this season and get Eric Thames some at bats for next season at DH with Snider presumably in left. But if you want to capitaliza on Thames' good play then why not sell high. Thames may appear to be hitting well, but he is swinging at way too many pitches and not taking enough walks, so it would appear as if his average will surely drop play. He may very well be an everyday big leaguer some day, but right now he projects to be a good 4th outfielder something the Jays will have a lot of.

More Production at the Plate
This season both Snider and Thames have had more than adequete time to show off their stuff, but neither has yet to show us anything too special. With the likes of Darin Mastroianni, Moises Sierra, Adam Loewen, Jake Marisnick, Marcus Knecht, and of course Anthony Gose all pushing to get to the big leagues Thames and Snider are going to have to step it up.

Snider will keep getting the chances because he is the top prospect, but in order for him to secure a spot he's going to have to bring back his power and start walking again since this year Travis' ISO has dropped a whopping 85 points and he hasn't registered a walk since before his initial demotion. As well despite having played in twice as many games this season over his initial call up in 2008, Travis has actually produced less WAR. There is still the encouraging numbers from last season when Snider hit 14 homers and had a .331 wOBA over 82 games, but the numbers are still nothing compared to what was initially projected for the young phenom.

As for Eric Thames he better heat back up again if he wants to stay on the major league roster because despite his encouraging numbers over the 2011 season in the past 15 days he has hit to a lack luster .173 batting average with 11 K's, which includes a couple Golden Sombreros. Also unlike Snider, Eric Thames doesn't have his defense to lean back on shown by his -5.4 UZR/150 this year and Eric is just generally regarded as someone who can't really play the field. If Eric wants to stay on the MLB roster he is going to have to heat up again and hit like he did towards the end of June.

Either way despite both guys having their positives, they will not be able to rely on them for much longer due to the fact that their is just so many guys pushing for that last spot. If they want to stay in the MLB both Snider and Thames are going to have to take major steps to improve.

Final Thoughts
Overall it has been nice to see the "competition" between these two young players as they fight for the now what seems to be one remaining outfield spot after the trade for Colby Rasmus and the call up of Brett Lawrie. It has been nice to see them both get the playing time they have deserved and it will be even better once rosters are expanded in September at which time Travis Snider would be presumably called up and take some major league at bats.

As for after the season I gave my thoughts before stating that I would rather see Snider long term as he has shown more potential and apparently the Blue Jays agree because they have stated that they want Snider long term. Though what hasn't been said is whether he will play in the outfield or at DH (if he ever learns to hit in the big leagues) because he looks to have some competition within a couple years at the "one" remaining outfield position.

Any Opinions, Arguments, or Criticisms? Let me know in the comments below.

Follow me on Twitter @HouseOfTheBB

Thank You Adam Wainwright

Photo by Herkie licensed under Creative Commons

As most all of you know yesterday the Blue Jays acquired a certain Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals for essentially Mark Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor, Zach Stewart, and Corey Patterson. Your first reaction is probably somewhere along the lines of why would the Jays give away so many solid players for only one guy who isn't even a starter.

Naw I'm just kidding you I have the same reaction as many others in praising the Silent Assassin for the use of his Jedi Mind Tricks towards the betterment of this team (Although if you are looking for some more laughs click this link --> TSN Colby Rasmus Trade Analysis and read the Jays bashing in the comments from all the hockey fans who didn't even know Colby before the trade).

Because we all know the conversation probably went something like this....

(AA brings two fingers across Mozeliak's face)

AA: These are not the relievers you are looking for

JM: These are not the relievers I am looking for

AA: You would like two 2012 free agents, a AAAA player and Scrabble for your bench warmer Colby Rasmus

JM: I would like two 2012 free agents, a AAAA player and Scrabble for my bench warmer Colby Rasmus

AA: Yes you are getting it now, just announce it to the press

JM: Yes, master

And there you have it Colby Rasmus becomes a Blue Jay.

Even though Anthopolous went to great lengths to acquire us our future center fielder, I think who us Jays fans really need to thank is a certain Adam Wainwright for giving us the chance to acquire such a talented young player  

Yes, Wainwright the 2010 Cy Young candidate who injured his arm and required Tommy John Surgery in this year's offseason. It seems like many people have forgot about him, but he was not only predicted to yet again be the ace for the Cards, but also another possible Cy Young candidate. So then to go from him to Kyle McLellan was a big let down for both the team and its fans. Though it was a bad situation it was only made worse when Albert Pujols decided to stop acting like Albert Pujols, even if he is starting to come around. 

The combination of these two things meant that the Cardinals were almost forced into a situation that would see them acquire another #3 starter to complement the unlikely performances of Carpenter, Lohse, and Garcia. This is due to the fact that the Cardinals are in essentially a three team race with America's Team and the Brewers plus there is the Reds still kicking around. Had the Cardinals had Wainwright and his extra 3-5 wins over McLellan than the Cards could have probably kept up with Rasmus' struggles and not have left themselves with a situation where they had to trade him away for another pitcher.

But no luckily for us with the whole Albert Pujols contract situation, the Cards are going all in this year, that means doing whatever necessary to get that pennant (Even if they are far away from the Giants, Phillies, and Braves). 

Granted TLR was trashing Colby in the media and talking about how he didn't listen to coaches and what not, which definitely helped to lower Colby's price and almost force the trading of Colby Rasmus. But even then that was no reason for Mozeliak to go selling, La Russa had a couple years left  You know what they say one man's trash is another man's treasure and in this case the trash was very cheap. 

So full credit to Alex and his genius negotiating, but really the true heros in Bluebird Land are Adam Wainwright and Tony La Russa, thus I crown both of thee honorary Blue Jays, even if La Russa wouldn't be allowed across the border, which we can only hope is the same for another Tony.

In AA We Trust