Projecting Performance: Infield

Projecting Performance is a series outlining each position of the Blue Jays roster with my thoughts on who should play the position and how well I expect them to perform for the 2012 season. The Starting Rotation and Outfield pieces are already posted.

Going in to 2011 the Blue Jays infield had more questions than Encarnacion has errors at third base. Would Lind and Hill return to 2009 form? Would Yunel Escobar build on a strong finish to the 2010 season? Would Arencibia improve on his abysmal call up performance? Would Encarnacion be able to play third base? Over the course of the season we found answers to those questions and things worked themselves out as they usually do. This year there may be even more questions with a couple of higher upside players in Kelly Johnson and Brett Lawrie added to the infield later in the year. However rather than questions on if players could be feasible, this year we seem to be asking how much better could they get.

Adam Lind
At this point I have lost all hope in Adam Lind. Some still seem to think that he could return to 2009 form many citing his .508 wOBA in the 2 months after he returned from injury. For one thing that was in a 123 PA sample and for another producing that well is great, but not when the other four months he produced a sub .300 wOBA to go along with his sub .300 OBP. As well when you consider that during Lind's stretch of extreme relevance he was facing 7% less lefties than the rest of the season you could see why he had a bit of a boost.

The problem I then have with the people who talk about Lind's two monster months are that they are also generally the same people that say Lind performed poorly late in the year because of his injury. What it really seems like is some people just can't let go of Lind's rather impressive 3.7 fWAR season in 2009 and who could blame them. Adam Lind was a great player, but there is a large emphasis on the 'was' there. As time goes on that great 2009 season more and more becomes the very definition of a 'career year'.

Of course I outlined this before, but in short in 2009 Lind simply saw the ball better. This isn't simply a factor of being hot though, in 2009 Lind had an O-Swing% almost 10% better than any other year of his career. He was seeing the ball better, but for whatever reason that really hasn't translated in to any other year of Lind's career and at this point I doubt it ever will.

The Verdict:
Lind isn't a great player, but he's not the worst first baseman in the league (He's close).  Despite the putrid results in 2011, I'd expect some improvement in 2012. He may not be one of the best hitters in baseball for a month again, but I'd guess that the production evens outs a little and he becomes at the very least an above average hitter in 2012. Unfortunately being a slightly above average hitter at first base simply won't cut it and the Jays could seriously find themselves pining for Votto come November. In the end of it all, it couldn't get any worse, could it?

WAR Prediction: 1.2

Kelly Johnson
Kelly Johnson didn't have a great 2011, but I'm definitely less worried about him than some of the others. Sure he did hit almost as terribly as Hill has the past couple years, but he's only one year removed from a 5.9 fWAR season. As well unlike Lind who did have a good season, Kelly has had a couple other respectable season with 2.7 fWAR in 2008 and 3.6 fWAR in 2007.

Furthermore it wasn't as if Kelly was Jeff Mathis with the stick last season. Despite hitting .222 last year Kelly Johnson still had a OBP higher than Adam Lind as well as a 2.2 fWAR. Meaning that even if he produced exactly the same as he did last year he would still be more than two times better than former second baseman Aaron Hill was.

The bonus on top of that if one would expect him to perform better. The course of his career has been a plethora of up and down seasons. He was bad last year so one would expect him to be better this year. Well that and he has shown that he has the skills to be a very good player.

The Verdict:
KJ wasn't great in 2011, but he was better than Aaron Hill and was more than just a serviceable second baseman. Beyond that he has history of success including his 5.9 fWAR season from 2010. Because of this one would expect a bounce back year from Kelly, maybe not to the tune of his 2010 season, but he could surely outperform what he did last year as well as what he did in 2008 and 2009.

WAR Prediction: 3.5

Yunel Escobar
Last year Yunel was the very proof that Anthopoulos' plan can work. He was unwanted in Atlanta because of supposed personal issues with Bobby Cox, but that didn't bother AA. He saw the potential and it payed off last year. Going forward Yunel would appear to continue to put out similar production. Prior to his iffy 2010 he was more than just a serviceable shortstop. Two other times he had an fWAR above 3.5 and in 2009 he had a better season than he did in 2011.

That right there is what sets Yunel apart from some of Toronto's other high potential players. Unlike the Sniders and Rasmusi (Yes that is the plural of Rasmus) of this world Yunel has a history of well sustained success. It wouldn't be crazy at all to assume at least another 4.0 WAR season out of Yunel with the possibility for more. He is aging and will be getting closer to the back end of his prime this year at age 29, but the tools he has generally aren't the ones that are conducive to the immediate effects of aging.

For example Yunel isn't much of a speedster, but rather a high hit tool, high walk kind of guy. That should do well to keep his offensive numbers up for longer than the average shortstop's prime. As well on the defensive side of things, a lot of Yunel's defensive value is gained from his throwing arm rather than his raw defensive techniques.

Although the fact that his arm is less conducive to aging could matter quite a bit less come 2013. At that time Cuban defensive wizard Adeiny Hechavarria could be pushing to make the big league roster, that is assuming he can hit and that assumption is no small load. If called up Adeiny could be the best defensive shortstop in the major leagues, but if his minor league numbers are any indication he could have a sub Adam Dunn batting average. In the end I'm going to bet the hitting will be his kryptonite and the reason why Yunel won't have to worry about anyone taking shortstop from him, for this year at least.

The Verdict
Outside of the first half of the 2010 season, Yunel Escobar has consistently been an above average to well above average shortstop and I don't expect much to change going forward. He's still going to hit for a high average, with some power, and some speed. He is most certainly not the prototypical shortstop, but his defense is slightly above average and he gets the job done. In the end thats all that really matters.

WAR Prediction: 4.0

Brett Lawrie
To Blue Jays fans, Brett Lawrie is more than just a player, he is an icon, a Canadian god, and the man who could take their team to the playoffs. From the excitement around him it would seem as if he is some sort of Tebow North, except he is definitely not as kosher as his equivalent to the south. Besides that Lawrie is good, but assuredly not as good as he was last season.

If Lawrie were to somehow become a Canadian god it may be possible that he would put up a 9.5 WAR season, which is his 2.7 fWAR season in 2011 prorated over 600 plate appearances, unfortunately for us he is not. However he is still very, very good. Keith Law ranked him at No. 10 on his Top 50 Players Under Age 25 list and John Sickels had him at No. 2 on his Favourite Players, 25 and Under list. In his write up Sickels said, "The only thing I'm concerned about here is a possible tendency towards nagging injuries," but also praised Lawrie's all around game.

Lawrie can run, he can throw, he can hit, he can hit for power, and as Sickels notes, "[he has] a glove that is underrated at the minimum." Lawrie has the tools, the question is just going to be whether he can turn those tools into fruition and then be able to stay on the field to sustain that production.

We saw what he can do in 171 plate appearances, but that is a still an eerily small sample size and nothing that should have fans realistically projecting him as an MVP candidate. ZiPS was pretty high on him, projecting a .275 average, 27 homers, 24 SBs, and a 119 OPS+. Beyond that they in the comps section his No. 1 comp was Chipper Jones and No. 2 was Adrian Beltre, which is definitely not too shabby in the projection category. As for me I think Lawrie is great, but he is really difficult to project. He could be on the Ryan Braun path or he could fall flat on his face. He did well according to both the numbers and scouts, which is encouraging, but it could take some time for him to reach superstar status.

WAR Prediction: 4.2

J.P. Arencibia 
J.P. is a lot of things, the holder of the franchise record for most home runs by a catcher in a rookie season, the creator of the Tim Kurkjian impersonations trend, a lady killer among female Blue Jays fans, and the not so proud owner .282 OBP. He was fine in 2011, he was a bad hitter, a bad defender, and he had some pop and there was nothing wrong with that the Jays had no other options. On the other hand going forward things could be much different. 

Blue Jays No. 1 prospect Travis d'Arnaud is inching ever so closely to the majors and being that he is playing in the hitter friendly PCL, he could be looking for a call up very soon. Once up it could be very hard to send him down, he is a better hitter than J.P, he has better defensive skills, and he could even hit more home runs. Granted J.P. has the major league experience, but Travis is a force to be reckoned with and will surely let make the Jays the owners of a nice problem to have.

The Verdict:.P. Arencibia isn't a terrible player, but he isn't as good as his 87 RBIs make him out to be. He could easily improve both his home run totals and OBP in 2012, but with his current skill set it is unlikely he ever becomes a star. However the Blue jays are still only paying Arencibia the league minimum salary to be a full time starting catcher, which isn't a half bad deal. JP is what he is and I don't see his skill set improving a whole lot, but that's not to say that he can't be a solid starting catcher.

WAR Prediction: 1.8

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

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Thoughts on the Elias Rankings

Courtesy of the ESB Official Website

With the passing of the draft pick signing deadline on midnight August 16th, MLB Trade Rumors put out an updated version of the Elias Ranking projections (seen here) to give us a glimpse of how the draft might be in 2012. These Elias Ranking projections showed us that the Jays currently have 5 players who could garner them sandwich picks in the 2012 MLB Draft. These players are Jose Molina, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hill, Frank Francisco, and Jon Rauch. Though that looks good on paper it is still dependent on many variables such as guys accepting arbitration and some club options possibly being exercised by the Blue Jays. Nonetheless it is an impressive number that if all 5 players sign with other teams then it would be more compensation picks in the sandwich round for 2012 than in this year's draft.

Jose Molina
Jose has been a solid back up to rookie J.P. Arencibia this year with a 138 wRC+ (per FanGraphs) in his 139 plate appearances this year and the fact that he has hit well in limited plate appearances this year and last has propelled him to Type B free agent status. While looking at stats for this post, one thing that I did find interesting is that Jose actually has a better WAR this year than J.P. according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. According to FanGraphs he has been worth 1.5 WAR, where as J.P. has only been worth 1.0 and according to Baseball Reference the difference has been even bigger with Molina at 1.2 WAR and J.P. at 0.5 WAR.

By no means am I suggesting that we should have played Jose Molina all year, because had we played Molina more he probably would have regressed as the way he is hitting is far above his career numbers (2011 wRC+=138, Career wRC+=67). As well the hot hitting J.P. is still our catcher of the future (at least for now), while Jose Molina is just one of many stop gaps that AA has instituted. At the very least he has been a pretty good stop gap in terms of offensive and defensive numbers as well as being able to mentor J.P. and catch for the young pitchers (Drabek, Morrow, etc.).

He may be a valuable commodity to the Blue Jays right now, but currently he qualifies for Type B status and a draft pick is worth more than keeping him on board. There will be other Jose Molina type catchers in the offseason like Ramon Castro, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jason Varitek (if he would play for a team other than the Red Sox next season). With that potent backup catcher free agent class as well as Travis d'Arnaud absolutely lighting up AA pitching it would appear as if the Jays don't need to bring Molina back next season and therefore can afford to let him go for that ever so precious compensation pick. If AA can pull off a draft pick for a guy that we signed to backup John Buck then that will be yet another accomplishment to place on his resumé.

Edwin Encarnacion
If you had asked anyone knowledgeable about the Blue Jays at the end of May whether or not the Jays would exercise EE's option to bring him back next year I'm sure you would have got a resounding no. But since then Edwin has turned things around to become one of the most productive hitters in the whole league. He still may not be hitting a lot of homers, but he is hitting to a 218 wRC+ (per FanGraphs) in August which ranks him seventh in the league.

If he can continue this pace or at least continue on his July pace then he may be able to reach Type A status next year, but that is assuming that the CBA remains unchanged and it doesn't take away or change the free agent compensation system. As well it assumes that he gets some playing time at 3B to stay in the 2B/SS/3B category. If either of these things change then that could mean a lost draft pick in 2013. So then what this comes down to is whether the Jays feel like they are contending next year and that they could use his bat in the lineup everyday or whether they give themselves one more year to groom young players such as Eric Thames and Travis Snider, who would presumably be sharing the DH and LF spots for 2012. It is a big decision that could either potentially lose the Jays a draft pick or if they play well enough next year a playoff spot.

In my opinion I don't want to see Edwin back in a Jays uniform for next year. Yes, he is producing at extremely high levels and yes, he would be on an extremely team friendly contract, but this surge in production for EE is nothing new. He may not have produced at levels this high before but nonetheless Edwin Encarnacion is a very streaky player and when you delve further into the stats you see for yourself. What I found through research on FanGraphs is that in every year that Edwin has played since 2005 he has been consistently inconsistent.

When you look at Edwin's wRC+ month by month for every season in which he has played since his call up in 2005 you generally see a pattern. There is a couple months where he is above average, a couple where he is below average, a suckage month, and then a monster month. So far this year according to wRC+ Edwin has had two above average months, two below average months, and a monster month (which isn't done yet and will probably die down), therefore we would have to think that would lead us to believe that EE is going to have a suckage month in September. The only thing that is different about this year is he has gradually got better. After starting out badly the first couple months Edwin has gradually progressed and has posted a higher wRC+ every month.

Taking that in to account it may be evidence that there is improvement, but I don't buy it. There is no way that he can hold this 218 wRC+ that he currently has as he holds a BABIP at .400 which is 115 points above his career mark. What all this says is that this hot streak shouldn't be taken too much into account when the Jays decide upon his fate for next season, if Emilio Bonofacio can have a 26 game hit streak then EE can do what he has done in the month of August, but that doesn't mean it will continue forever.

Aaron Hill
Aaron Hill is definitely the most interesting of all of these free agent cases as he was the star player in 2009 and has been declining ever since, which is something that shouldn't be new to any of you. But what is interesting is that in recent Blue Jays broadcasts specifically last night's broadcast Buck and Pat were discussing how Dwayne Murphy has been working especially with Aaron Hill lately and how the Jays would like Hill to be their second baseman for the foreseeable future. Presumably because of this "extra" time working with Dwayne, Aaron Hill has been hitting better lately than before, but not to a level where he should be our starter with his 2012 salary. In the last week he has hit to a 96 wRC+ which is much better than his season mark of 67, but it is still below average and you don't purposely pay a below average player $8 million dollars.

I'm not in the Jays front office and I don't really know what they are considering for next season in terms of who is playing second base, but I can't see the Jays paying Aaron Hill $8 million to start for them. There still is the possibility that they decline Hill's options for 2012 and 2013 and then try and rework a contract for him, though if they do that then they give up any draft pick that they may get this year. Where as if they sign another second basemen to a one year deal then they can let Adeiny Hechavarria improve in the minors and then presumably take over at shortstop in 2013 with Yunel Escobar moving to second base (If you don't believe in Hech's progress then check out this Jays Journal article here). That seems like the most likely possibility, but the Jays may believe in Aaron and may want to keep giving him at bats. In my opinion I believe that he has had enough chances and that we should start moving away from the past and towards the future, which seems to be Adeiny Hechavarria.

Frank Francisco
With Frankie there isn't much to say other than what has been said. Some fans may say that we never should have traded for him in the first place pointing to the 3.0 WAR that Mike Napoli has produced for the Rangers, but Napoli never fit into our long term plans and he would have taken at-bats away from other deserving players. Regardless the Francisco for Napoli trade happened and there is no taking it back, but then the question becomes what do we do with Frank Francisco. We could offer him arbitration and have him decline it netting us a sandwich pick, but that depends on whether he would decline arbitration.

With Francisco having the bad-ish season that he is, with him making $4 million this year, and with the 2012 free agent market filled with top notch closers Francisco may want to accept arbitration or on the flip-side the Jays may not want to offer him arbitration at all. This creates a problem not only for the front office as they wouldn't get a draft pick, but it also gives the haters something to jab at Anthopolous with. This is because not only has Napoli had a good season for the Rangers on the field, but he has also produced enough to be projected as a Type A free agent for the 2013 offseason. The only way this would seem to work out for the Blue Jays is if AA and Frank Francisco have a handshake agreement for him to decline arbitration, thus netting the Jays yet another 2012 sandwich pick and then all is good in the world.

Jon Rauch
Last but not least is the guy who is currently on the 15 day DL Jon Rauch. There isn't much to say with Jon Rauch other than that he has had a bad season shown by his 1.79 HR/9 that ranks second last among qualified relievers as well as a 4.45 xFIP that ranks 16th last among qualified relievers (but still better than Kevin Gregg). Despite this he has still been able to muster up 11 saves woo hoo [sarcasm]. I along with most of you probably wouldn't care to see Rauch back next year despite his club option.

To be honest there is probably at least 5 other Rauches out there on the free agent market this offseason so then it would seem like AA won't have a hard time finding a replacement. The only problem then becomes whether Rauch would accept arbitration because he may test the market, but he may also want to keep the "guranteed" money from arbitration. Presumably AA would have to do the same thing with Rauch as he would with Francisco and that is to get the handshake agreement to solidify whether or not to offer these guys arbitration.

Final Thoughts
It would be nice to see the Jays have 7 picks in the first round (including the sandwich round) for the 2012 draft, but something is bound to change. Someone will probably accept arbitration just like Jason Frasor did last year and the Jays may just want to keep someone around for next year (Hill? Encarnacion?). Overall I am sure the Jays will find a way to work things out and they may even pull another Miguel Olivo to acquire another sandwich pick even if teams are more wary this time around. If all goes well then the Jays could be looking forward to another top farm system in 2012 and 2013 as we continue to take advantage of the free agent compensation system that may be gone in the next couple years.

Any Opinions, Arguments, Criticisms? Let me know in the comments below.

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Blue Jays Biggest Trade Chip?

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

At this point in the year it is saddening to say, but also safe to say that the Blue Jays will be sellers at this years trade deadline. But then the question is who to trade, because the Jays team right now consists of mainly young guys who hold the future of the team and the Jays definitely aren't in firesale mode so guys like Lind and Romero won't be traded. Though in my eyes the guys that the Jays could trade include Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, Aaron Hill, Corey Patterson, and Carlos Villaneuva. Some of the guys on this list may be a little unlikely, but with the silent assassin as our general manager, you never know what could happen.

Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel

The reason that I clump these two guys together is that they are pretty similar in terms of play and contract. Both have about a 4.00 ERA and both their xFIPs suggest that their ERAs should be higher. Regarding the contracts of Dotel and Rauch, they are fairly similar both have the two players making about $3 million this year along with $3.5 million options for next. The options may be appealing to a team because it gives them an extra year of control and still at a formidable price. Some teams these guys could be shipped off to includes Detroit, St. Louis, and Texas, all teams who could use some bullpen help. These two are probably the more likely bullpen pieces to be traded. Though Anthopolous surely won't be giving either of these guys away as they do have an extra year of control and both project to be Type B free agents.

Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor
The reason I clump Francisco and Frasor together is because they too have contract similarities, as well they are two players I believe are more unlikely to be traded. The contracts of these two guys are one year each with no options at about $3.75 million a piece. Why I don't see them being traded is in Francisco's case, it seems like the Jays believe that he is and should be their closer, which I don't necessarily agree with, but whatever. As well it will be hard to trade away Frasor who has the longest tenure with the Jays of all current Blue Jays. Also the Jays need at least one solid bullpen piece to somewhat hold late leads. Even if the Jays do trade away Frasor, I know it will be a hard loss, but I think he would resign with them in the offseason.

Aaron Hill
We all know the story of Aaron Hill. The once great player, whose career seemed to have its climax in 2009, with everything after just getting worse and worse. I wrote more about this in the previous article "The Rise of One, The Fall of Another". But as I stated in that article I would welcome the trading of Hill to whatever team still believes in him. Though as I also stated I don't see that being a likely possibility. The reasons being as I stated that the Jays are weak when it comes to middle infielders, with only Hech in the higher part of the farm system. Then the fact that the 2B free agent class this year isn't great, though Anthopolous has had interest in the past in one free agent second basemen Kelly Johnson. But Johnson isn't exactly having an All-Star year either. So it leaves the Jays with the realization that if they trade Hill they won't have anything else to fill the spot other than John Macdonald who is great defensively, but isn't stellar with the bat.

Corey Patterson
Now to Corey, the former top prospect who never really panned out. The Jays saw him and gave him a shot with a minor league contract this year. Earlier in the year it didn't look bad because Patterson was performing and we were able to plug his bat into the lineup every once in a while with Snider and Bautista manning the corner outfield spots. Then Snider was demoted to AAA to "revamp" his swing. This left us with the understanding that we would have to plug either Juan or Corey into left field and we really couldn't afford Juan's catcher like figure trying to run around and attempt to adequately fill left field. So this left us with Corey Patterson, a guy who really shouldn't be a major league starter, but the Jays were almost forced to plug his bat into the lineup everyday. Though now that we have Thames and Snider in Toronto and Loewen in Vegas, we really have no need for Patterson and we can trade him away. He probably wouldn't bring much value but there is still teams who would give away a lower tier prospect for him. As was said in a Fangraphs article he could be this year's Cody Ross. Teams that may try to get Patterson includes the Diamondbacks and the Braves, both playoff contenders in need of an extra bat.

Carlos Villaneuva
Now finally to Carlos Villaneuva, a pitcher that I have heard no body really talk about in terms of trade, but a guy who is 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA  should garner some interest. Especially when teams know that the Jays may be looking to shed a pitcher whether its Jo-Jo or Villaneuva. Because the Jays have 2 guys in Litsch and Drabek who could be pitching in the majors come August as well as a stocked farm system with such top prospects as Zach Stewart, Henderson Alvarez, and Deck McGuire. So shedding a guy like Villaneuva who is pitching much better than he should be according to his xFIP of 4.13 wouldn't be such a bad thing, if the team is overpaying. If the Jays could get even a C level prospect for him than that would be more than enough. As well the fact that he only makes less than a million this year helps out. Teams like Cleveland, Detroit, and Arizona.

I think that our overall biggest trade chip would have to be Carlos Villaneuva, just based on the way he has played this year and I do think that he could help a contending team such as Arizona who has been known to be looking to add smaller pieces at the deadline. Other guys who I do expect to be traded include Corey Patterson and Jon Rauch. The other guys still could get traded, but I think with the situation that those guys are in and how they both excelled early, they would be most likely to go. Though none of these trade chips will net us any top shelf picks, but they can still get some positive contributors to our farm system. Because you never know what you have in a player until you can fully evaluate him yourself and as Jose Bautista has shown, anything can happen. 

The Rise of One, The Fall of Another

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

2009 was a year of wonder and great promise for Blue Jays fans alike. This is due to the fact that despite finishing 20 games out of the AL East lead with a 75-85 record three things happened that gave us Jays fans hope for the future. The first being that the surprisingly long tenure of J.P. Ricciardi was finally terminated; leaving the prodigy himself Alex Anthpolous to lead us to his dynasty. The second being that our 2006 1st round pick Ricky Romero was called up, and comprised a 13-9 record with a 4.03 ERA in the majors. Finally and most importantly was the emergence of what seemed like two fantastic players, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Both players were in the prime of their careers, both had over 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs and a better than .280 average that year and both players were even in MVP consideration for that 2009 season. These two players, Hill and Lind looked like they would be strong components of the Blue Jays teams for years to come.

Once 2010 came around everything changed. Both Lind and Hill's home run totals dropped by at least 10 homers, their ISOs  by more than 20, and their RBI totals by more than 40. Despite the major decreases in the power categories, power wasn't even the big issue. The issue was instead their  batting averages, which dropped by 70 points a piece. Based on the breakouts from these two players, there was definitely some expected regression from the their 2009 numbers but all of these stats dropping and a net WAR decrease of 6.9 between Lind and Hill is ridiculous. It isn't like Lind and Hill were some Bautista like figures who were presumably out of their prime, but somehow popped onto the MLB scene. Both were highly touted prospects and Hill had a similarly good season two years prior to the 2009 breakout. This fact that these two guys were known commodities gave some confidence to fans and the Blue Jays Front Office that Hill and Lind would return to prior form. In fact the front office had enough confidence in Lind to give him an extension at 4 years and $18 million. At the time at least to me it seemed like a lot to commit to a guy who just finished hitting .230, but the Jays obviously still believed in him and with extending him at that time they got him for a steal

Looking at both Hill and Lind's 2011 numbers you can see that the Jays were definitely right in locking up Lind early, but unfortunately we have also had to witness the lowest of the low for the once great player Aaron Hill. It really is quite unfortunate to see such a great player fall so far. I remember being at his very first game and seeing his first at bat. The pitcher had just intentionally walked Russ Adams to load up the bases and to put all the pressure on the rookie. Hill responded by hitting a bases clearing triple with a ball that just flew over the center fielders glove. Having seen him from the start makes it so much harder to see him playing this way. With only 4 home runs so far this year and a sub .250 average, Hill is doing bad and isn't showing signs of getting better, which is definitely going to make it a tough decision to pick up his options at the end of the year.

As for Lind I along with many other Jays fans are overjoyed to see him excelling at the level he is. Especially after having him sign that long term deal that I was skeptical of at first, but seeing him back to and possibly better than his 2009 self is great. At the rate he is going he should be able to beat out his 2009 35 home run total and his 114 RBI total, despite missing a significant amount of time on the DL earlier this season. Plus he is still holding a .310 batting average, which is 5 points higher than his 2009 number. Furthermore he is still only 27 and we have him under contract for another 2 years, plus three more option years at a fairly discounted price if this production is to continue.

Throughout the past 3 years the performances of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind have been a little iffy, with Lind being good then bad then great and Hill being great then bad then worse. Though back in 2009 we saw that both of these guys can be All-Star players, we have seen Lind recapture that glory and I would hope that Hill can pull it together. In my opinion I would like to see Hill traded, but I don't believe that it really a possibility with the lack of free agent second-basemen this offseason.

Because of this the Jays will most likely accept Hill's 2012 option, but if the sub-par play continues then I could see the Jays turning down his 2013 option with Phillips in the free agent class that year and with Hechavarria possibly pushing to make the Jays squad. Overall it is interesting to see the polar opposite paths that these two players, Adam Lind and Aaron Hil, have taken over the past three years. In 2009 both were great, in 2010 neither could recreate. In 2011 the former Lind has returned, but as for Hill he has left us concerned.