The Anthopoulos Method

Today ESPN.com's Keith Law released his Top 100 Prospects List (Insider Req'd) as well as his Top 10 by organization. The Top 100 included five Jays minor leaguers with one even ranking in the Top 10, but that isn't really what this post is about. Instead may I point you to the farm system rankings (Insider Req'd) that Law posted on ESPN.com on Wednesday . In his post Law praised the Jays aggressiveness in the draft and international free agency and eventually ranked them at #3.

This ranking got me thinking because throughout the Ricciardi era the Blue Jays were never really considered to have a "good" farm system by any means. In fact the year before present GM Alex Anthopoulos took over J.P. Ricciardi had led the Jays to the #18 spot on Law's 2009 farm system rankings and at #19 on Baseball America's version. In the few years since the overhaul AA has managed to bolt the Jays from middle of the pack to a top end with potential for more. Specifically Law states in his write up "They are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter."

In 2009 when Alex Anthopoulos took over as General Manager as the Blue Jays he had a bit of a head start for the farm system and that would be Roy Halladay. At the time Halladay did boast the 9th highest fWAR in baseball, but Anthopoulos was still limited in his destinations. For one thing Roy Halladay wanted to go a contender and for another in order to obtain maximum value Anthopoulos had to be trading with a team that was assured an extension with Halladay. These two filters and the fact that AA likely didn't want to trade the ace within the division really limited the destination to Philidelphia.

Despite all odds against him Anthopoulos impressively managed to get in return three prospects ranked in Baseball America's 2010 Top 100 with Kyle Drabek at #25, Michael Taylor at #29, and Travis d'Arnaud at #81. Of course later that year Taylor was swapped for Brett Wallace and at the trade deadline in 2010 Wallace was swapped for current Blue Jays prospect Anthony Gose.

The development of the prospects since the trade has had its highs and its lows. Drabek may have had a poor showing in the big leagues last year, but he still has the talent to be a solid starter. To go along with him are d'Arnaud who ranked in the top 10 on Law's 2012 list and and whom he said could "... turn out to be real impact player acquired by Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade" and Gose whom ranked just out of Law's Top 50. If Drabek regains form and d'Arnaud and and Gose develop as expected this trade could look eerily similar to the one that got the Braves Mark Teixeira. In that trade the Texas Rangers obtained three current Rangers in Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison, as well as now Boston Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Beyond the Roy Halladay trade Anthopoulos had to create a new direction for the club. He overhauled the entire draft and international free agency strategy that had been left by Ricciardi and for good reason. During Ricciardi's tenure 75% of the players drafted in the first five rounds were college players and only two [Edit: players drafted in the first round] in the eight years were from high school. One of those two players, Travis Snider, one of only two Blue Jays players to make the Top 10 in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects during Ricciardi's tenure.

Since then Anthopoulos has changed it such that over 75% of the players drafted in the first five rounds have been high school players essentially reversing the trend. This means that rather than the safe college picks of the past the Jays are pushing for high end talent. Much of this change was due to an increase in emphasis on draft spending as evidenced by the roughly $3.7 million that the Jays spent in Ricciardi's last year and the average of $11.3 million that they have spent in the two years since.

To go along with the trade talent infusion and the higher draft spending the Blue Jays spent a load on international talent. During Ricciardi's the Jays had a presence in Latin America, but were not spending to the extent the Jays have in the past two years. In 2010 the Blue Jays spent $2.8 million on Venezuelan right hander Adonys Cardona and in 2011 they spent $3.00 million on Roberto Osuna two of the higher profile international signings in the past two years. As well in 2010 the Jays spent $10 million over four years for Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.

The emphasis on Latin American talent has surely developed a brand of sorts in the Latin American market. With the new CBA in place and it capping the amount that can be spent on players in International free agency it was important for the Jays to develop themselves in the market as a team that a player wants to be on. That means that in the future when two teams are offering same or similar bonuses the Jays may have established themselves a slight advantage.

On the whole with Anthopoulos the Blue Jays plan has obviously been to obtain high upside talent. You as a fan can consider this a good thing or a bad thing, but first realize this. Last year there were 46 players whose fWAR 5.0 or higher in the MLB, 67% of them were with the team that developed them. Of those 46 players another 20% were with a team that traded for them. That means a total of 87% of the top end players in the MLB were either developed as a prospect or acquired in trade through prospects.

In contrast, last season there were 244 players whom had a fWAR between 1.0 and 2.0. Those "role players" are the kind of players that are more often obtained through lesser draft and international free agent spending. They are also the same kind of players who can most often be bought on the free agent market for less than $10 million dollars.

That means to all of the fans criticizing Anthopoulos for his method should maybe step back just a little. Despite what you may believe Alex Anthopoulos is a smart man and he knows what he is doing. He has developed a system that may be hindered by the new CBA, but the farm system that he has spent millions of dollars on and the system that he has created will continue to pay dividends.

Because as was stated before the Jays farm system ranked at #3 on Keith Law's farm system rankings, with him also saying that "they are the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter." The reason? Behind this top end level of talent the Blue Jays have lies more players in the lower minors like Cardona and Osuna who in a couple of years could be in the same position that d'Arnaud and Hutchison are.

If you still aren't convinced consider this, a similar high upside system was employed by the Rangers in years past and well look at where they are now. Just some food for thought.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, MLB Draft History, ESPN

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The Rise of One, The Fall of Another

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

2009 was a year of wonder and great promise for Blue Jays fans alike. This is due to the fact that despite finishing 20 games out of the AL East lead with a 75-85 record three things happened that gave us Jays fans hope for the future. The first being that the surprisingly long tenure of J.P. Ricciardi was finally terminated; leaving the prodigy himself Alex Anthpolous to lead us to his dynasty. The second being that our 2006 1st round pick Ricky Romero was called up, and comprised a 13-9 record with a 4.03 ERA in the majors. Finally and most importantly was the emergence of what seemed like two fantastic players, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Both players were in the prime of their careers, both had over 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs and a better than .280 average that year and both players were even in MVP consideration for that 2009 season. These two players, Hill and Lind looked like they would be strong components of the Blue Jays teams for years to come.

Once 2010 came around everything changed. Both Lind and Hill's home run totals dropped by at least 10 homers, their ISOs  by more than 20, and their RBI totals by more than 40. Despite the major decreases in the power categories, power wasn't even the big issue. The issue was instead their  batting averages, which dropped by 70 points a piece. Based on the breakouts from these two players, there was definitely some expected regression from the their 2009 numbers but all of these stats dropping and a net WAR decrease of 6.9 between Lind and Hill is ridiculous. It isn't like Lind and Hill were some Bautista like figures who were presumably out of their prime, but somehow popped onto the MLB scene. Both were highly touted prospects and Hill had a similarly good season two years prior to the 2009 breakout. This fact that these two guys were known commodities gave some confidence to fans and the Blue Jays Front Office that Hill and Lind would return to prior form. In fact the front office had enough confidence in Lind to give him an extension at 4 years and $18 million. At the time at least to me it seemed like a lot to commit to a guy who just finished hitting .230, but the Jays obviously still believed in him and with extending him at that time they got him for a steal

Looking at both Hill and Lind's 2011 numbers you can see that the Jays were definitely right in locking up Lind early, but unfortunately we have also had to witness the lowest of the low for the once great player Aaron Hill. It really is quite unfortunate to see such a great player fall so far. I remember being at his very first game and seeing his first at bat. The pitcher had just intentionally walked Russ Adams to load up the bases and to put all the pressure on the rookie. Hill responded by hitting a bases clearing triple with a ball that just flew over the center fielders glove. Having seen him from the start makes it so much harder to see him playing this way. With only 4 home runs so far this year and a sub .250 average, Hill is doing bad and isn't showing signs of getting better, which is definitely going to make it a tough decision to pick up his options at the end of the year.

As for Lind I along with many other Jays fans are overjoyed to see him excelling at the level he is. Especially after having him sign that long term deal that I was skeptical of at first, but seeing him back to and possibly better than his 2009 self is great. At the rate he is going he should be able to beat out his 2009 35 home run total and his 114 RBI total, despite missing a significant amount of time on the DL earlier this season. Plus he is still holding a .310 batting average, which is 5 points higher than his 2009 number. Furthermore he is still only 27 and we have him under contract for another 2 years, plus three more option years at a fairly discounted price if this production is to continue.

Throughout the past 3 years the performances of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind have been a little iffy, with Lind being good then bad then great and Hill being great then bad then worse. Though back in 2009 we saw that both of these guys can be All-Star players, we have seen Lind recapture that glory and I would hope that Hill can pull it together. In my opinion I would like to see Hill traded, but I don't believe that it really a possibility with the lack of free agent second-basemen this offseason.

Because of this the Jays will most likely accept Hill's 2012 option, but if the sub-par play continues then I could see the Jays turning down his 2013 option with Phillips in the free agent class that year and with Hechavarria possibly pushing to make the Jays squad. Overall it is interesting to see the polar opposite paths that these two players, Adam Lind and Aaron Hil, have taken over the past three years. In 2009 both were great, in 2010 neither could recreate. In 2011 the former Lind has returned, but as for Hill he has left us concerned.