Projecting Performance: Starting Rotation

Projecting Performance will be a series outlining each position of the Blue Jays roster with my thoughts on who should play the position and how well I expect them to perform for the 2012 season. Up first is the Starting Rotation, with the Infield and Outfield coming in subsequent weeks.

In 2011 the Blue Jays starting rotation definitely wasn't a strong point. It saw twelve different pitchers start a game and 20 starts given to Jo-Jo Reyes (Yes, that Jo-Jo Reyes). Those 20 starts ranking third most among Blue Jays pitchers (Ugh). Going forward things look much brighter. As it looks to be shaping up so far, rather than having innings whisked away by giving starts to Brad Mills and Luis Perez, the Jays look to be transferring those starts to higher upside arms in Dustin McGowan and Henderson Alvarez. Beyond that the Jays have quite a few players in the minors that could be pushing for starts in 2012 including Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire, and maybe even Chad Jenkins. Without further ado the player breakdowns.

Ricky Romero
Between 2009 and 2011 each year the Jays had a new Opening Day starter. In 2009 it was Roy Halladay, in 2010 it was Shaun Marcum and in 2011 it was undoubtedly Ricky Romero. With that said it looks like for the first time in three years there will be a similar face starting come Opening Day and that would be Ricky Romero.

Each of the last three years Romero has been consistently improving, culminating in a 2011 season that saw him pitch to 2.92 ERA, but only a 2.9 fWAR. Though it was encouraging that Romero pitched deeper in to games and ultimately got to 225 IP, there was a couple other factors that diminished his perceived performance.

For starters it is true, Romero did have a 2.92 ERA in 2011, but numbers like his 4.20 FIP or 3.80 xFIP or 3.78 SIERA suggest that things may be different in 2012. The likely reasoning behind this being that for one Romero's home run rate jumped back up to a 1.04 HR/9, which is significantly higher than the 0.64 number that he posted in 2010. As well, though Romero's .242 BABIP may suggest otherwise, Romero actually seemed lucky in 2011. The reason being that in 2011 Romero's LOB% was much higher than his career average at 79.2% and his LD% was much lower at 14.2%.

The Verdict:
Ricky Romero did have a fantastic year in 2011 in terms of ERA, but not so fine in terms of his peripheral stats. Despite the possibly luck driven 2011 I actually expect Ricky's peripherals to be better in 2012, but it looks like the ERA will come back down to earth.

WAR Prediction: 3.0

Brandon Morrow
In 2011 Brandon Morrow was Brandon Morrow. He struck out a ton of batters, he walked a ton of batters, and he produced a xFIP and SIERA that was much lower than his ERA. Numbers like his 3.53 xFIP suggest his ERA should be much lower, but he has yet to have produced to that level. It isn't a question of the stuff either, Brandon Morrow has some of the better stuff in the league, it just hasn't translated to enough big league production.

Steve Slowinski of FanGraphs suggested that Morrow may need to add another pitch to become more effective. Could that pitch be the cutter that Morrow added late last season? Its quite possibly could, because the cutter is known as a ground ball inducing pitch, which in the past has been precisely Morrow's problem.

After he added it late last season, the first couple of games whilst using it didn't turn out so well, but in the last three Morrow finished strong. Not that this means too much because it is far too small a sample to really make anything of it. With that said it will surely be interesting to see how Morrow does with a developing cutter in 2012.

The Verdict:
Morrow is always cited as a breakout candidate and this may finally be his year. He is developing that third pitch and he's going in to his third full year as a starter. His peripheral stats don't look to get too much better in 2012, but it seems like this is the year his ERA may actualize.

WAR Prediction: 3.5

Brett Cecil
Cecil seems to me to be one of the most peculiar players at this year's Spring Training. At the start of Spring Training, most people (including myself) seemed to think that Brett Cecil had the No. 3 starter spot locked down. Now upon further investigation I'm having second thoughts.

Yes, Brett Cecil did have a 2.6 fWAR season in 2010, but since then he has been lack luster to say the least. He dropped 1 MPH off his fastball last year, and in his first Spring Training start he was reported to have topped out at 88 MPH and averaging around 87 MPH.

For most guys losing that much in velocity is detrimental and to a guy like Cecil is could be career ending, that is assuming its permanent, which it's likely not. Nonetheless the drop in fastball velocity is discouraging for both us fans and maybe even for Farrell too as Stoeten inferences at Drunk Jays Fans.

What's most discouraging about Cecil is the fact that there was nothing really in 2011 that makes me think he should improve in 2012. Rather than returning to 2010 form, in 2011 Cecil seemed to regress back to his 2009 season, which as short as that 2009 season was it was not very good.

The Verdict:
Unless Brett Cecil gains back some fastball velocity, improves on his offspeed pitches, or becomes Bruce Chen 2.0, it seems doubtful that he'll get back to a level where he could be a No. 3 starter. Initially I and what seems like many others thought Cecil would simply return with some new found form after the whole weight loss story, but after some number crunching it showed that supposedly Cecil was pretty lucky in 2011 and still wasn't very good. That is never a good combination.

WAR Prediction: 0.5

Henderson Alvarez
There's not too much to say about Henderson Alvarez from a statistical standpoint. He started 2011 in HiA Dunedin and astonishingly climbed all the way to the big leagues before the September roster expansion. Once in the big leagues he seemed to perform much better than anyone had expected, but one does have to be aware of the relatively small sample size.

Going forward it is likely that Alvarez's insane 5.00 K/BB ratio comes back down to earth because he doesn't strike out enough guys for that to be sustainable. However it doesn't mean that he won't be able to perform. In fact Kevin Goldstein said that, "Henderson Alvarez's ceiling is close to what Ricky Romero is today."

This is obviously quite encouraging for Alvarez's case because after a pretty terrible 2010 season Alvarez was forced to repeat HiA Dunedin and his prospect status seemed to have been permanently tarnished.

The Verdict:
There isn't nearly enough statistical evidence on Henderson Alvarez to do any real analysis. With that said considering what Kevin Goldstein said to be true, it isn't unreasonable to expect  at least No. 4 starter like production with the potential for much more, not only in 2012, but beyond.

WAR Prediction: 2.1


Dustin McGowan
Dustin is the miracle pitcher, the man who no one thought would ever return. All the odds were against him, but he battled through it and started his first MLB game in 3 years on September 6th. The narrative is with him, but now McGowan will once again have to face adversity. This adversity being the question of whether he'll actually be able to pitch. He didn't do to well in terms of stats at the end of 2011, but then again it was less than 25 innings.

The reports out of spring seem strong so far. After McGowan's first start today. Gregor Chisholm reported that he reached 96 MPH and was averaging around 93, which would be about where he was velocity wise, back in 2008. Mike Wilner also pointed out that, "[McGowan's] fastball had good life and the slider had great bite."

All of this is great in theory, but McGowan still has yet to consistently produce at the major league level since coming back from injury. He seems to have the same stuff, and on the FAN 590's JaysTalk Wilner noted that he felt "just like the other pitchers" in the sense that he wasn't be held back at all. As well he'll surely be given plenty of chances as he is essentially the Jo-Jo Reyes of 2012 being a starting pitcher who is out of options, which almost makes him a shoe in for a rotation spot. Just hopefully he doesn't take on Reyes' performance level as well.

The Verdict:
I'm not really sure what to expect out of Dustin McGowan in 2012. He seems to be relatively similar in terms of stuff as he was in 2008. The only problem is he has yet to show that he can sustain that stuff over the course of a full game or over the course of the season. That right there could really be his Kryptonite this season, but it could also not matter at all. The only way to see what McGowan truly is will be innings and time and that won't come until the regular season.

WAR Prediction: 1.5 (Only because of a possible innings limit)
Kyle Drabek
Last, but certainly not least is the former top prospect Kyle Drabek. In a lot of ways Drabek is like Henderson Alvarez, but also different at the same time. They are similar in the fact that both have under 90 innings of MLB pitching experience and both have a possible No. 2 starter ceiling, but are polar opposites in terms of their production in their first taste of the big leagues. As stated before Alvarez was fantastic last year and well Drabek kind of wasn't.

However both have the same relative pitching ceiling, which why I thought both should have a chance to prove themselves in 2012. Obviously Alvarez has the edge having performed well in his big league time, but Drabek hasn't been terrible in Spring Training either and at this point I'd rather see him in the rotation that Cecil.

The reason being that at this point Cecil's ceiling appears to be a No. 3 starter at best and at this point he may not even reach it. Where as this year Drabek could be a serviceable No. 5 with upside for so much more.

The Verdict:
Unfortunately like Alvarez, with Drabek there isn't enough statistical evidence to do any real analysis. Instead we have to turn to the scouting reports, which are unsurprising high on Kyle Drabek. He still has the talent, he still has the stuff, he just needs the command, which I don't expect to come this year. Though with some repetition and major league innings it could very well be Drabek's year come 2013. In my opinion he just needs to be given a chance.

WAR Prediction: 0.8 (Only because I don't think he will get the chance)

Look for Part 2 of Projecting Performance, which will be on the Blue Jays Outfield, the post will likely come out sometime later this week. 

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

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An In-Depth Look at Extending Brandon Morrow

Photo Courtesy of Mirosport.net

With the Blue Jays offseason in a bit of a slump and the Darren Oliver signing being the most exciting thing at the moment, I found myself having to write about something different. Rather than speculating on Garza rumours or a possible (I use that term loosely) Prince Fielder signing, I have come to the realization that other than the occasional non-consequential signing the Jays likely won't do much in terms of roster changes this offseason. Instead they will likely stick to their plan of building from within and then keeping the talent in the organization. Up to this point the latter half of the plan has only needed to be addressed to a small extent, but now with young talented players like Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and the centre of this writing piece Brandon Morrow all possibly needing extensions, Alex Anthopoulos definitely has his work cut out for him.

Morrow as most of you probably know was traded to the Blue Jays from the Mariners in December 2009 for right handed reliever Brandon League. Seattle had drafted Morrow in the 2006 draft with presumably the intention of making him their closer. At the time this seemed fine as Morrow had the velocity and plus pitch that you traditionally look for in a closer, but as time went on the Seattle front office and coaching staff created some kinks in Morrow's development. These kinks being that towards the end of the 2008 season, the Mariners decided that they would begin to move Morrow to the starting rotation and out of a relief role, utilizing the ole Earl Weaver strategy.

Long story short Morrow's stints as a starter didn't turn out as expected and it resulted in the Mariners demotion of him to AAA as well as the multiple changes between roles in the starting rotation and the bullpen. Due to this Morrow began to become a "change of scenary" for Seattle in the sense that he didn't need to be traded, but would likely have trouble succeeding in Seattle organization through the development process they had created. Ultimately all of this hoopla turned out well, for the Jays at least, as it led to the trade that landed them Morrow in 2009. Reports initially coming from the Blue Jays organization subsequent to the trade suggested that they intended on using Morrow exclusively in the starting rotation, giving Morrow a clean slate to work on.

Now what does all this mean and why is it at all important to a possible contract extension. Well if you simply look at Brandon Morrow's service time and age you would see that he is heading in to his second year of arbitration and is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season. But if you take into account the time that Morrow spent with the Mariners and how he was never really used as a full time starter there, then Morrow is in some sense of the word a third year player.

In terms of the actual contract extension this means that rather than the negotiations acting as if Morrow is a guy with 4 years of service time, Anthopoulos could make the argument that Morrow is really just a third year player coming off his sophmore season. I'm sure Morrow's agent would have something to say about that, but it would be a good argument for Anthopoulos to make. If that is the route that Anthopoulos takes I'm sure guys like Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Romero, and Jaime Garcia would come up in terms of comparable contracts, all of which signed for around 5 years and $30 million.

Now obviously it is quite unreasonable to expect Morrow to take that type of contract when MLBTR already projects him to make $4.2 million in arbitration this year. Instead I'm sure Morrow's agent will come back comparing Brandon Morrow to the recently extended John Danks and rightfully so. Danks signed an extension for 5 years and $65 million with the Chicago White Sox this offseason. Had he not signed the extension, Danks would have been eligible for free agency after the 2012 season one year before Brandon Morrow.

The Danks comp likely to be brought up would be interesting as Danks and Morrow are very similar but different at the same time. They are similar in the sense that both players are in their fifth year in the MLB and close to free agency, but due to time spent in the minors Morrow has one less year of service time and 3 less years of full time starting experience. Other than that one similarity they are pretty different in their execution, but both have been good starters over the last three years. Danks has the higher fWAR in the last three seasons, due in large part to a higher innings count. He also holds a lead in the traditional stats like ERA and Wins, which often increase arbitration and sometimes free agency earnings. Though on the other side Morrow holds a firm lead in his K% as well as the more sabrmetric and predictive stats such as FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. (Customized FanGraphs stats table here)

What this all boils down to is that in the end Morrow will likely get a lot less guaranteed money than John Danks, but also significantly more than Ricky Romero. Danks' contract is worth about $65 million and Romero's is worth $30.1 million, it seems like such a simple-minded way to do it, but if you take the average of those two contracts it is about $47.5 million over 5 years. If there is to be a $47.5 million dollar extension proposed, I'm thinking it will probably work out something like this...

If you look at the layout of the proposed contract, depending on how good they think Brandon Morrow really is, the contract seems to work out for both sides. Morrow gets some added financial security and the Blue Jays get 3 years of Brandon Morrow's free agency at a reasonable price with a chance at quite a bit of upside. Using the current assumption of approximately $5 million = 1 WAR we can figure that for Morrow to be worth the contract extension he only needs to produce 1.9 WAR per year. If we use FanGraphs version of WAR we see that over his past two years as a starter Brandon Morrow has averaged 3.5 WAR per season, far and above the value he would need to provide in order to fulfill the proposed contract extension.

Even if we use the less optimistic Baseball Reference version of WAR we can see that over the past two years Morrow has averaged 1.5 WAR. Then using Sky Kalkman's WAR Spreadsheet, we can figure out how much Morrow has to improve to fulfill his contract. As expressed in the first table over the course of his contract Morrow has to be worth an average of 1.9 WAR per year. In the past two years Morrow hasn't been at that mark, but if you take his average ERA from the past two years and then assume a steady innings increase you get a total of 11.0 WAR, which is still 1.5 WAR in surplus value. Even if you assume that he misses some time to injury, Morrow would still have to miss roughly 140 innings over the course of the contract, which isn't unprecedented, just to be worth the 0.1 WAR less than the value of the contract.

Finally if you at all believe that Brandon Morrow will reach his "potential" that predictive stats such as his 3.51 xFIP or 3.31 SIERA over the past two years indicate, then that is all just added value. If you believe that over the course of his contract that Morrow will match his xFIP (top half of the table below) with the same innings counts as in the above table then he will be worth approximately 24.8 WAR, which is 15.3 wins of added value. Then if you are a real dreamer and believe that Morrow can match his SIERA (bottom half of the table below) he will be worth about 27.6 WAR, which is 18.1 wins in surplus value.

Of course almost all of this is speculative research and depends quite a bit on Morrow accepting a contract similar to the 5 year $47.5 million dollar contract proposed earlier, but the contract at least in my opinion seems pretty fair and through this has a very good chance of providing surplus value. Though as I stated there is always the chance that Morrow would turn down that contract as he has been known to follow some sabrmetric stats or as he calls them "nerd" stats. He may feel like he has more potential to outperform this contract, but financial security is always nice too, especially for a pitcher. Then there is also the off chance that the Blue Jays organization feels like he isn't even worth the proposed amount. Whatever it is we as fans can only hope that at some point Brandon Morrow reaches his "potential" and doesn't just become one of those players with the great peripheral stats, who never lives up to them.

The Anthopoulos regime has been good with extensions thus far after handing them out to players such as Jose Bautista, Ricky Romero, and Yunel Escobar, we can only hope that the Jays front office continues the trend going forward. With Brandon Morrow and whatever other young cost controllable player the Blue Jays acquire.

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 in the comments section below

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Trade Target: Jon Niese

Courtesy of slgckgc licensed by Creative Commons

Recently it was reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the New York Mets are getting offers on pitcher Jonathan Niese with the Blue Jays among the teams interested. Niese is a 25 year old starter whose repertoire consists of a 90 mph fastball with solid command, a dominant curveball and a solid cutter and changeup. Niese's traditional stats suggest he is somewhat of a mid to back of the rotation starter with a career 4.39 ERA and 22-23 record, but the peripheral stats suggest he is much better. Above all of this what I find particularly interesting is he seems to be Ricky Romero's statistical twin. They are both southpaws who have similar service times (Niese at 2.107, Romero at 3.000), but there is a lot more.

For starters both Romero and Niese have the exact same career strikeout rate at 19.2% and are similar in their walk rates at 7.5% and 9.4% for Niese and Romero respectively. Beyond that Niese and Romero are also very similar in their batted ball profiles with Niese's career numbers at a 20.5 LD%, a 49.1 GB%, and a 30.3 FB%, while Romero's numbers are at a 17.2 LD%, a 54.7 GB%, and a 28.2 FB%. To top it off both Romero and Niese have similar home run rates at 11.8 HR/FB% and 10.7 HR/FB% in their careers.

Not only are Romero and Niese statistical twins, but Niese's actual rate stats as well as his adjusted ERAs suggest that he is much better than he has shown, which makes him a prime trade target. Over his career Niese has consistently outperformed his ERA with a career ERA at 4.39, but with a career FIP at 3.77 and a career xFIP at 3.64. Most particularly notable is Niese's xFIP from this past season which was at 3.28 and 1.12 points lower than his 4.40 ERA. Niese's career low xFIP if qualified would have ranked 14th in the league between Anibal Sanchez and Dan Haren. Some of the xFIP is probably derived from Citi Field, but taking in to account that Niese is mainoly a groundball pitcher means that Citi shouldn't affect his numbers too much.

All of this Niese hyping is nice, but really doesn't meaning anything if he doesn't come for the right price. On the Getting Blanked Podcast they suggested Snider plus something else, because Snider alone probably isn't enough. I would suggest something along the lines of Travis Snider and Deck McGuire, Snider an outfielder which is something that the Mets could use and a pitching prospect who projects as a mid rotation starter. It is a steep price to pay and it could leave you with having to play Thames in LF for 2012, but for a guy who is right now an easy #3 in the AL East with his groundball style and one who could easily become a Romero 2.0, which is a very valuable commodity. Romero made the adjustments as a 25 and 26 year old pitcher, why can't Niese?

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Why Votto, but not Fielder

Photo's by OlympianX and Keith Allison both licensed under Creative Commons

Since the what seems like forever Jays fans have wanted Toronto born first basemen Joey Votto on his hometown team the Blue Jays, but it is only recently that rumors have really started to "heat up" if you can really even call it that. Buster Olney said on Twitter, "Rival executives getting signals that the Reds won't shop Joey Votto -- but that they are fully prepared to listen to offers.". This was encouraging, but then in an interview with Reds beat writer Mark Sheldon,  Reds GM Walt Jocketty said on the subject of trading Votto, "We haven’t talked about it. I wish that people would stop writing it, why would we trade one of the best players in the game? We’re trying to win.” 

Obviously those are some pretty strong comments that should be taken into consideration when going after Votto. Though despite that strongly worded quote from Walt Jocketty, it doesn't mean that Votto in a Jays uni is completely impossible, but I'm guessing that because of those comments Jocketty will probably take the same route Kevin Towers took with Justin Upton last year. Essentially meaning that he will listen to offers, but that you would have to blow away the Reds to obtain Votto. In the end it should also be the same outcome of the Justin Upton rumors, with no trade happening. Votto may be traded, but probably not this offseason, even if his value is at its peak.

What I want to know is why exactly do we want to trade for Votto, when there is a better option on the free agent market in Prince Fielder. Votto obviously includes the plus of being able to play first base at an above average level and the fact that he is Canadian definitely doesn't hurt, but Prince Fielder, with the right contract, is clearly the better option. He is younger, he is only a marginally worse hitter , and most of all he won't cost the Blue Jays anything other than cash (which can easily be spent if Anthonpolous feels it is warranted) and a 1st round draft pick, which the Blue Jays have two of in 2012.

Starting off on the value aspect, here are the stats of the two players on the past three years.

Prince Fielder

Year	Age	G	PA	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
2009	25	162	719	103	177	46	141	2	3	110	138	.299	.412	.602	1.014	166	356
2010	26	161	714	94	151	32	83	1	0	114	138	.261	.401	.471	.871	135	272
2011	27	162	692	95	170	38	120	1	1	107	106	.299	.415	.566	.981	164	322

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2011.

Joey Votto

Year	Age	G	PA	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
2009	25	131	544	82	151	25	84	4	1	70	106	.322	.414	.567	.981	156	266
2010	26	150	648	106	177	37	113	16	5	91	125	.324	.424	.600	1.024	171	328
2011	27	161	719	101	185	29	103	8	6	110	129	.309	.416	.531	.947	156	318

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/21/2011.

Prince Fielder's fWAR has been an average of 5.1 and Votto's has been a better, but not otherworldly better at 6.3 fWAR. Though once you take fielding completely out of the equation the gap closes a bit as Fielders average offensive contribution to his fWAR over the past three years is 4.5 wins and Votto's is 4.7 wins. When you consider that if on the Jays Fielder will be most likely be DHing quite a bit, it seems reasonable to assume that there wouldn't be a giant value gap between Fielder and Votto. Either would be a huge upgrade over both Encarnacion and Lind, but for what it would take to acquire the two, it easily gives Fielder the edge. 

To acquire Joey Votto would be a monstrous task. First he's obviously not a free agent nor is he an obvious trade candidate with two years still left on his contract, so a trade for him could take a lot. Some people were suggesting that the Jays should trade something along the lines of Anthony Gose, Travis d'Arnaud, Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire, and then some of the high end arms in the lower minors like Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino. If the Jays could get Votto for this, then I would go right ahead, but I along with others can easily see that this isn't an adequate package for a guy who is a year removed from an MVP season in which he had 7.3 fWAR. 

A more accurate representation of what it would take to acquire the former MVP would be something along the lines of Brett Lawrie and Ricky Romero. It may look nice to have that hometown hero, but is it really worth it to give up Lawrie and Romero to do so. First off Lawrie has some of that same patriotic appeal that Votto has as well as the fact that he is cost controlled and is projected to be a future star. Then to add on Ricky Romero who is the unquestioned leader of the pitching staff  and the only guy who is a lock to throw 200 innings, it becomes way too much to give up.

Besides by adding Votto to the 2012 roster you really aren't gaining much if anything at all in terms of added value if what you are giving up is Brett Lawrie and Ricky Romero. This year Votto had a 6.9 WAR season and it is quite reasonable to expect him to reach those heights again. But Lawrie and Romero combined this year put up 5.6 WAR and it isn't unprecedented to expect even more value next year out of Lawrie and Romero than out of Votto. Sure some of Lawrie and Romero's value would be added in other ways, but if you assume you get Snider/Thames replacing Lawrie's production and one of the young pitchers replacing Ricky's production it would be exceedingly close to the value added with Votto over Encarnacion. Combined Lawrie and Romero provide probably an extra 5 wins over their replacements, but Votto over Encarnacion is only 5.5-6 wins added, so unless Lawrie completely tanks next season Votto doesn't add much to the Jays. 

Despite the obvious marketing positives of having the best Canadian player in the MLB on the only Canadian team, giving up what it would take to acquire Votto is too much. If the Blue Jays truly want a first basemen now then Fielder is the only option. He's only 27 and if you can get him for less than 7 years, then I'd say jump on it. It doesn't matter even if the Jays pay Fielder upwards of 22.5 million a year, the real issue with him is the long term sustainability. Plus Fielder adds that big bat that the Jays supposedly need, without taking away the prodigy himself Brett Lawrie. In the end I don't think it will be failure whether or not the Blue Jays get a big middle of the order bat this offseason or not, but if they do want to acquire someone, why not Fielder.

The Rise of One, The Fall of Another

Photo by Keith Allison licensed under Creative Commons

2009 was a year of wonder and great promise for Blue Jays fans alike. This is due to the fact that despite finishing 20 games out of the AL East lead with a 75-85 record three things happened that gave us Jays fans hope for the future. The first being that the surprisingly long tenure of J.P. Ricciardi was finally terminated; leaving the prodigy himself Alex Anthpolous to lead us to his dynasty. The second being that our 2006 1st round pick Ricky Romero was called up, and comprised a 13-9 record with a 4.03 ERA in the majors. Finally and most importantly was the emergence of what seemed like two fantastic players, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Both players were in the prime of their careers, both had over 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs and a better than .280 average that year and both players were even in MVP consideration for that 2009 season. These two players, Hill and Lind looked like they would be strong components of the Blue Jays teams for years to come.

Once 2010 came around everything changed. Both Lind and Hill's home run totals dropped by at least 10 homers, their ISOs  by more than 20, and their RBI totals by more than 40. Despite the major decreases in the power categories, power wasn't even the big issue. The issue was instead their  batting averages, which dropped by 70 points a piece. Based on the breakouts from these two players, there was definitely some expected regression from the their 2009 numbers but all of these stats dropping and a net WAR decrease of 6.9 between Lind and Hill is ridiculous. It isn't like Lind and Hill were some Bautista like figures who were presumably out of their prime, but somehow popped onto the MLB scene. Both were highly touted prospects and Hill had a similarly good season two years prior to the 2009 breakout. This fact that these two guys were known commodities gave some confidence to fans and the Blue Jays Front Office that Hill and Lind would return to prior form. In fact the front office had enough confidence in Lind to give him an extension at 4 years and $18 million. At the time at least to me it seemed like a lot to commit to a guy who just finished hitting .230, but the Jays obviously still believed in him and with extending him at that time they got him for a steal

Looking at both Hill and Lind's 2011 numbers you can see that the Jays were definitely right in locking up Lind early, but unfortunately we have also had to witness the lowest of the low for the once great player Aaron Hill. It really is quite unfortunate to see such a great player fall so far. I remember being at his very first game and seeing his first at bat. The pitcher had just intentionally walked Russ Adams to load up the bases and to put all the pressure on the rookie. Hill responded by hitting a bases clearing triple with a ball that just flew over the center fielders glove. Having seen him from the start makes it so much harder to see him playing this way. With only 4 home runs so far this year and a sub .250 average, Hill is doing bad and isn't showing signs of getting better, which is definitely going to make it a tough decision to pick up his options at the end of the year.

As for Lind I along with many other Jays fans are overjoyed to see him excelling at the level he is. Especially after having him sign that long term deal that I was skeptical of at first, but seeing him back to and possibly better than his 2009 self is great. At the rate he is going he should be able to beat out his 2009 35 home run total and his 114 RBI total, despite missing a significant amount of time on the DL earlier this season. Plus he is still holding a .310 batting average, which is 5 points higher than his 2009 number. Furthermore he is still only 27 and we have him under contract for another 2 years, plus three more option years at a fairly discounted price if this production is to continue.

Throughout the past 3 years the performances of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind have been a little iffy, with Lind being good then bad then great and Hill being great then bad then worse. Though back in 2009 we saw that both of these guys can be All-Star players, we have seen Lind recapture that glory and I would hope that Hill can pull it together. In my opinion I would like to see Hill traded, but I don't believe that it really a possibility with the lack of free agent second-basemen this offseason.

Because of this the Jays will most likely accept Hill's 2012 option, but if the sub-par play continues then I could see the Jays turning down his 2013 option with Phillips in the free agent class that year and with Hechavarria possibly pushing to make the Jays squad. Overall it is interesting to see the polar opposite paths that these two players, Adam Lind and Aaron Hil, have taken over the past three years. In 2009 both were great, in 2010 neither could recreate. In 2011 the former Lind has returned, but as for Hill he has left us concerned.